Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4

[WxMidwest]

LSE will have to move there headlines South too...

[ArmyGreens]

Looks like that low is going to head right over Omaha based off of radar.

[MadTown]

local met on tv.....now calling for around 8-12 in madison area....rain freezing rain mix tonight tomorrow morning...rain snow tomorrow early after noon snow tomorrow late afternoon and night break during late night overnight and more snow on sunday for the totals

[Organizing Low]

It would be nice to get a few inches of snow before any changeover so we're not left with bare ground after the warmup. I know I keep mentioning it, but December 2008 keeps coming to mind. Snow was forecast to change to rain, but one model had Ottawa all snow, and it turned out to be right

that was the RGEM

interestingly, the RGEM continues to cool, looks like at least 8 hours of snow for ottawa before the run ends, as SSC mentioned.

if anyplace can do it, against all odds....its ottawa

snow to frzra to period of rain possible, seems most likely

[A-L-E-K]

hr 30 seems the low is over Normal IL, no dry slot for chi.

looks dry slot-esque to me

[Indystorm]

Slowing and intensifying....just got back home and catching up with this thread. And thanks for recent posts on current precip type and temps as we move into nowcasting frame and contrast that with the models. Is certainly a very interesting system....My hunch on track is like Justin's....just a hair south of I-80 eastward through IL, IN.

[buckeye]

gfs looks like its stacking the 500 850 and surface

[JoMo]

looks dry slot-esque to me

Yeah Chicago barely gets in the dry slot with heavy snow just north of there.

[A-L-E-K]

I think we're going to see a better defo band back into Illinois than what the GFS is showing at 42.

[Allsnow]

looks dry slot-esque to me

comparing 42 hrs to that on the 18z...pretty much similiar.....its like you have said going to be very close.

[janetjanet998]

I think we're going to see a better defo band back into Illinois than what the GFS is showing at 42.

yeah

there may be some very heavy rates wrapping around the upper/mid level lows.....

[beavis1729]

I think we're going to see a better defo band back into Illinois than what the GFS is showing at 42.

Agree...time to focus on nowcasting and the higher resolution models, imo.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

that was the RGEM

interestingly, the RGEM continues to cool, looks like at least 8 hours of snow for ottawa before the run ends, as SSC mentioned.

if anyplace can do it, against all odds....its ottawa

snow to frzra to period of rain possible, seems most likely

Have you seen the latest GFS that's rolling in? It has shifted the low south! Could the trend be our friend? Right now it still has us changing over to rain, but still...

[beavis1729]

0z gfs destroys cromartie...almost 2" qpf...time to bury the palm trees.

[JoMo]

The strange thing is.. the 700 MB and 500 MB lows are closed off much farther south than the SLP, 850.

That is why St. Louis is getting snow.

700 MB @ 36

[A-L-E-K]

yeah

there may be some very heavy rates wrapping around the upper/mid level lows.....

Agree...time to focus on nowcasting and the higher resolution models, imo.

I see this and this and think serious snow.

[cyclone77]

60kts at 925mb over much of eastern Iowa and far northwest Illinois at 12z Sun. Quite scary if that can get down to the ground. This is right around the time when the best snow rates look to be occurring in the area as well.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yeah, ha!

the gfs has 2-3 inches here with blizzard conditions.

the RGEM had 3 inches with blizzard conditions.

what is interesting..since it is ususally warm here.

can someone help me out.

for the snow event, the entire collumn is from -10 to -15C up to 700mb, mostly colder then -12c most of it.

how would this effect ratios given .15-.2 QPF?

[OceanStWx]

Don't look now, but the 00z GFS has 32 mb of gradient across Iowa at 06z Sunday.

[janetjanet998]

The strange thing is.. the 700 MB and 500 MB lows are closed off much farther south than the SLP, 850.

That is why St. Louis is getting snow.

700 MB @ 36

yeah actually i wouldn;t be surprised in those areas quick a few hours burst of SN+..maybe even at heavier rates then up this way(although not as long duration so less total)

[ILSNOW]

I see this and this and think serious snow.

how much of the 1 to 1.25 do you think is frozen for us?

[msp]

snow now being reported in the southern metro, including flying cloud and lakeville.

here's the great traffic cam sit for MSP:

http://www.dot.state.mn.us/tmc/trafficinfo/cameras_map.html

roads already slick and some beginning to be covered in the sw.

[Hoosier]

Don't look now, but the 00z GFS has 32 mb of gradient across Iowa at 06z Sunday.

Time to put 80 mph in the forecast based on that 10 mph/4 mb rule.

[A-L-E-K]

how much of the 1 to 1.25 do you think is frozen for us?

without looking at bukfit or anything, maybe .4 -.6 ish. Our changeover is going to be interesting to watch unfold, dynamic cooling could make things interesting.

[Allsnow]

I see this and this and think serious snow.

What i dont understand is that the low is further south then the 18z run, yet it seems the dry slot is just as close to the city...

[cyclone77]

Don't look now, but the 00z GFS has 32 mb of gradient across Iowa at 06z Sunday.

This will definitely be an example of how you don't always need excessively deep surface low pressures to generate powerhouse winds. The 955mb Superbomb for example.

[Indystorm]

KGRR now emphasizing near blizzard conditions with possible power outages in their CWA.

[A-L-E-K]

BEARS

[Hoosier]

without looking at bukfit or anything, maybe .4 -.6 ish. Our changeover is going to be interesting to watch unfold, dynamic cooling could make things interesting.

Looks like the changeover at ORD occurs a bit after 00z on the GFS.

[OceanStWx]

Time to put 80 mph in the forecast based on that 10 mph/4 mb rule.

Large area of 65 kt winds at 500 m. That's not very far off the deck.