cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Dry slot still invades the QC on the RGEM, but just barely. Chicago looks pretty safe now. Could be another big snow for Dubuque lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 00z RGEM really starting to bring heavy snow down into the north half of Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 nam shows the 0 850 line race ahead of the precip line. Most of what falls in central and eastern OH should be frozen...or at least very quick changeover Looks like somewhere between 30-33 hours it changes over for CMH. Surface temps are a little sketchy, but you should still score some snow. http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KCMH.txt EDIT: this looks a lot better for you. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KCMH.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 0z RGEM, FWIW, pretty much has you avoiding the dry slot or getting into it for a shorter amount of time. Based on the track of the 700 mb low/RH fields on the RGEM, it looks like he misses it entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 We're trending toward it slipping along/just south of I-80 as it gets toward your area. I think that option is very much in play. hmmm, i guess i'm going on current location and extrapolating not so much looking at the models, if the low keeps digging it might just be all systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Pouring freezing rain at 28 degrees, just as expected. Everything is a pure glaze out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 03Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 03Z looks like it should start gaining some latitude soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 snow just started here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 looks like it should start gaining some latitude soon. skilling no change 6 inches from system 5 inches from lake enhancement on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 How's it looking for Ottawa? Deluge of rain? EC is actually still calling for snow or freezing rain with a high of 32F. It would be nice t oat least see 4" the problem over here on this end, is that no matter the sfc position, that punch of warm air at 800mb is still there. we needs the arc of the low track to physically change, ie dig.....to avoid the warm air intrusion from the SE up and over the low. there is no chance of that happening in montreal but ottawa has a 10-20% chance of that working for them i'd say. its still 48 hours away from the crucial track point for us. each model run has been trending slowsly south and 'diggier' in response to the initialization conditions. the ukmet at 12z actually pulled it off, keeping ottawa all frozen and mostly snow id say. the euro tried, but just failed for ottawa. the US models have been hideous for the whole region, but they too are subtly shifting. as i said, id give it a 10-20% chance, which isnt much and is a longshot, but the next 6-12 hours as the low comes out of its formative stage, are critical. even if not, i do still think that FRZRA will be the main problem for the ottawa valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 skilling no change 6 inches from system 5 inches from lake enhancement on sunday I don't like when he does that with the enhancement. I'm riding my 2-5 call from this morning, but will say heaviest north (less dryslot) and east (LE). 2" pre-dryslot and 3" in the defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'll check when the profile comes out, but just looking at the NAM 4 panel plots, you're probably still too warm. OB, RGEM through 0z Monday keeps you all snow but the mixture looks like it's rapidly approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 From what I have seen, it would appear Findlay (northwest OH) could be in-line for 3-4" of snow by late Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I don't like when he does that with the enhancement. I'm riding my 2-5 call from this morning, but will say heaviest north (less dryslot) and east (LE). 2" pre-dryslot and 3" in the defo band. hopefully the GFS will continue the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Get the monopoly money ready $man, here's the text output for FLD. A cool 14.6" of snow. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KFLD.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Gotta post the 0z NAM clown map for entertainment purposes. Plus it sort of donut holes LAF...which is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 I don't like when he does that with the enhancement. I'm riding my 2-5 call from this morning, but will say heaviest north (less dryslot) and east (LE). 2" pre-dryslot and 3" in the defo band. Just my humble opinion but I think you're too slow to react to the trends here. I'd be going big north of I-80. Even areas just south of there could make out pretty well depending on the exact track. I guess we really won't know for sure until the daytime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 GFS @ 24 looks like 997 nw IL @ 30 995 over chitown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=lnx&product=N0Z&loop=no Looks like the surface low is over broken bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 GFS did beef up the QPF from the 12z run through 24. Winds are starting to get going over Iowa @ 24 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Just my humble opinion but I think you're too slow to react to the trends here. I'd be going big north of I-80. Even areas just south of there could make out pretty well depending on the exact track. I guess we really won't know for sure until the daytime... You very well might be right. 0z NAM only puts out 4" or so, but it is creeping towards a much more robust solution held by the GFS/RGEM et al. I'm trying to stay consistent here, but it's getting hard. As i type, it doesn't look like the 0z GFS is giving up, but is much slower than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 GFS stronger/slower. tad more SW then 18z oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 This system is irritating the heck out of me... 6" from the system with 5" more from LE? Problem is, with LE, it is not area wide coverage... the banding can leave some areas with a dusting and just a mile or two away, dump 3 or 4 ".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 GFS @ 24 looks like 997 nw IL @ 30 995 over chitown ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 OB, RGEM through 0z Monday keeps you all snow but the mixture looks like it's rapidly approaching It would be nice to get a few inches of snow before any changeover so we're not left with bare ground after the warmup. I know I keep mentioning it, but December 2008 keeps coming to mind. Snow was forecast to change to rain, but one model had Ottawa all snow, and it turned out to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 GFS stronger/slower. tad more SW then 18z oh my pretty much this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 30 seems the low is over Normal IL, no dry slot for chi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 GFS stronger/slower. tad more SW then 18z oh my spits out .75 to 1 inch thru 30 hrs for chicago dont know how much is frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Looks like DSM needs to hoist the ol' blizzard headlines further south. GFS shows 30kts sustained over central Iowa tomorrow evening combined with heavy snow. The scary thing is the GFS usually underplays surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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