patrick7032 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 yeah, which is what i assumed was the case. and no doubt that it's enhanced from bright banding. auto. ob of light snow in faribault. Or if the precip is very light where the sensor can't discriminate....but not in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 This setup is pretty much textbook for massive inland penetration. I'm not sure how IND is going to handle the headlines given the synoptic event immediately preceding, but I think you can actually make a case for advisory amounts of LES in the northeastern part of the area. Can't be too many cases of LES advisories into the IND CWA, although like you say, NAM is certainly hitting that potential. Even Kokomo looks to get in on the action. As for our sensible weather, looks like 1-3" maybe an outside shot at 4", if everything breaks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 What's interesting is that if you look at some of the models the QCA will be in sort of a dead zone as far as wind goes until after midnight tomorrow night. We may get a situation where we get snow to accumulate a few inches in a near calm environment, only to get blasted by very strong winds a few hours later. I think that's very much the case. I see maybe a brief pick up when winds shift to the west, then a quick ramp up to the really strong stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Or if the precip is very light where the sensor can't discriminate....but not in this case. yeah, even with the b.b., i'd have to guess that the precip is coming down at a fair clip in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 My forecast map from yesterday, don't really have many changes. Didn't put a whole lot of detail into the far Northwestern portion of the map, but I think it is at least in the ball park range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 yeah, even with the b.b., i'd have to guess that the precip is coming down at a fair clip in there. Gotta love the -RA report at M04/M04 celsius. ASOS suckage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Can't be too many cases of LES advisories into the IND CWA, although like you say, NAM is certainly hitting that potential. Even Kokomo looks to get in on the action. As for our sensible weather, looks like 1-3" maybe an outside shot at 4", if everything breaks right. I think the best shot will probably be just north/east of Kokomo but certainly can't rule them out. It's sort of weird to even contemplate IND issuing a lake snow advisory...I'm not totally convinced at this point but the signals remain impressive. As far as who else rarely gets an advisory, I'd say the south/eastern portion of IWX is looking to be in line too. Anyway, don't want to turn this into the LES thread but I just wanted to respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hoosier, what kind of winds are you thinking we will see around central and north central Indiana? Im not very good at forecasting wind. Im curious because if we can end up with 2-4 inches of fluff it'll blow around very easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 0z NAM BUFKIT not as snowy as the 12z run, but snowier than the 18z run for YYZ. 3" of snow initially, a few hours of rain, 3" on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hoosier, what kind of winds are you thinking we will see around central and north central Indiana? Im not very good at forecasting wind. Im curious because if we can end up with 2-4 inches of fluff it'll blow around very easily. Probably some gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Gotta love the -RA report at M04/M04 celsius. ASOS suckage. yeah, sure seems questionable considering albert lea is at 30/30 with UP. at least the TC shouldn't have much of any p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Still a pretty vicious dry punch into northern Illinois late in the afternoon per latest NAM. However, I can easily see that area quickly fill in if this system continues to trend stronger. Definitely a shift south from the 12z, and even the 18z. That dry punch is sinking south and filling each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Starting to feel the same way. This thing may dump quite a bit of snow where it ends up pivoting, and right now the corridor from Dubuque, to Rockford, and particularly the north side of Chicago look very good IMHO. The 0z NAM was a baby step in the right direction, things are looking up no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 That dry punch is sinking south and filling each run. And someone's confidence is growing. It's been something to watch this thing trend south with successive runs. One has to wonder if there is still a little further adjustment necessary. I would think not a huge one, but a little further south changes the landscape across N IL and S WI. Fascinating storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 0z NAM BUFKIT not as snowy as the 12z run, but snowier than the 18z run for YYZ. 3" of snow initially, a few hours of rain, 3" on the backside. How's it looking for Ottawa? Deluge of rain? EC is actually still calling for snow or freezing rain with a high of 32F. It would be nice t oat least see 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 RGEM has SLP in West Central Iowa at 12z Sat 100mb NW IL/IA border at 00z Sun 999mb low in NE Indiana at 12z Sun with H5 low in S. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 That dry punch is sinking south and filling each run. Areas near the dry slot (north of it) typically get a bunch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 0z RGEM is rolling out right now. At 12 hours it has a 1004mb low pretty much in the middle of Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 nam shows the 0 850 line race ahead of the precip line. Most of what falls in central and eastern OH should be frozen...or at least very quick changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 0z RGEM is rolling out right now. At 12 hours it has a 1004mb low pretty much in the middle of Iowa. Per latest surface obs, analysis, that would be pretty close to being accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 RGEM at 36 hours: 999mb over FWA, elongated down to E KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 RGEM has SLP in West Central Iowa at 12z Sat 100mb NW IL/IA border at 00z Sun 999mb low in NE Indiana at 12z Sun with H5 low in S. IL Essentially rides US 30 in IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 And someone's confidence is growing. It's been something to watch this thing trend south with successive runs. One has to wonder if there is still a little further adjustment necessary. I would think not a huge one, but a little further south changes the landscape across N IL and S WI. Fascinating storm. I think the 0z GFS will take the low over Waukegan, scratch that, Evanston, i don't see a south of I80 track happening. I'm also thinking i peak into the dry slot, but not for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 02z RUC is even a hair South and slower then the 18z GFS at 18z SAT at 20Z has a 1000mb low over Iowa city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 RGEM again drops 3 inches on STL....impressive, pretty damn far south with the UL features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 How's it looking for Ottawa? Deluge of rain? EC is actually still calling for snow or freezing rain with a high of 32F. It would be nice t oat least see 4" I'll check when the profile comes out, but just looking at the NAM 4 panel plots, you're probably still too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I think the 0z GFS will take the low over Waukegan, scratch that, Evanston, i don't see a south of I80 track happening. I'm also thinking i peak into the dry slot, but not for long. 0z RGEM, FWIW, pretty much has you avoiding the dry slot or getting into it for a shorter amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 0z RGEM, FWIW, pretty much has you avoiding the dry slot or getting into it for a shorter amount of time. The NAM had one of the nastiest and it's been trending that way as well, my fear of that dirty girl is fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 I think the 0z GFS will take the low over Waukegan, scratch that, Evanston, i don't see a south of I80 track happening. I'm also thinking i peak into the dry slot, but not for long. We're trending toward it slipping along/just south of I-80 as it gets toward your area. I think that option is very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 RGEM again drops 3 inches on STL....impressive, pretty damn far south with the UL features. I'd say....on the KY/TN border.....amazing it's not popping a secondary or occluding the main storm further southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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