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October 29th Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF

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It's still a rain/snow mix, though snow is becoming more dominant... associated with the stronger precip. areas. Might go back to sleet/rain once the heavier stuff subsides.

EDIT: 8:54 no more flakes falling... back to mostly rain with a little sleet.

Yeah, you're right. It's definitely switching back and forth every few mins.

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you need to cool it.

and what is your location, please. not all of us live in the immediate metro area and so will have higher accums. my forecast is 6-10" and it is snowing moderately here with huge flakes.

Everyone should cool it a bit. Outside elevation the obs don't seem to support hitting the high range this far at least

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you need to cool it.

and what is your location, please. not all of us live in the immediate metro area and so will have higher accums. my forecast is 6-10" and it is snowing moderately here with huge flakes.

My location (Baltimore City) is irrelevant. The statement was for the entire area, not just the metro areas. I'll be shocked if you get anything even close to 10" where you are. Unless you're N/NW of northern Frederick, Carroll or Baltimore counties, you're likely not going to see anything significant. It'll make for nice pictures in other areas, but that's about it. I could be completely wrong, but based on OBS right now, realized accums are going to be on the low end of the ranges.

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My location (Baltimore City) is irrelevant. The statement was for the entire area, not just the metro areas. I'll be shocked if you get anything even close to 10" where you are. Unless you're N/NW of northern Frederick, Carroll or Baltimore counties, you're likely not going to see anything significant. It'll make for nice pictures in other areas, but that's about it. I could be completely wrong, but based on OBS right now, realized accums are going to be on the low end of the ranges.

It's still kinda early but many at lower elev are pulsing back and forth with rates it seems. I don't think this will go super late into the day.. we'll see. As long as we keep getting banding redevloping around CHO I think most realistic ranges are still in the game at least.

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It's still kinda early but many at lower elev are pulsing back and forth with rates it seems. I don't think this will go super late into the day.. we'll see. As long as we keep getting banding redevloping around CHO I think most realistic ranges are still in the game at least.

I hope I'm wrong....I'd love for nothing more than a good dumping of snow. We'll see.....

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It's still kinda early but many at lower elev are pulsing back and forth with rates it seems. I don't think this will go super late into the day.. we'll see. As long as we keep getting banding redevloping around CHO I think most realistic ranges are still in the game at least.

Yeah...this is really two pulses; the second pulse still getting its act together. I made a faulty post last night

about the snow respecting the I-81 corridor...this storm is a wild thing.

It seems that a good forecast technique for this storm would be to take the NAM and warm the output very slightly; or take the GFS and cool the output a bit.

Here is Reisterstown, we just flipped

from some sort of sleety mix to heavy, wet snowflakes with high water content.

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