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October 29th Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

356 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES

UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN EAST OF CAPE

COD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY

AND FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 00Z NAM AND GFS IN THE THERMO PROFILE BLO

H7 AND MOST IMPORTANTLY BLO H85. KIAD 06Z SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE

GFS IS TOO WARM AND THE NAM IS TOO COLD AS EVIDENCED BY COMPARING

THE MODEL SOUNDING PLOTS AT 06Z TO OBSERVED BALLOON. THIS SUPPORTS

THE WIDE DISPARITY OF MODEL SNOW ACCUM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH

THE NAM GIVING IAD 11 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE GFS GIVING ZERO INCHES

OF SNOW. WILL BE USING THE 21Z SREF AS THE BASIS FOR THE SNOW ACCUM

AND TIMING. HPC ANALYSIS SPEAKS OF A RECENT NAM UPGRADE THAT MAY BE

PRODUCING A COLD BIAS IN THE MODEL.

THIS PUTS THE LARGEST ACCUM SNOW IN OUR CWA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE

IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE 6-10 INCHES WILL BE COMMON. THE

ENHANCED RADAR RETURNS SEEN NOW AT 07Z ON WSR-88D MOSAIC OVER S

CENTRAL VA AND N CNTRL NC WILL STRATIFY AND BE THROWN BACK INTO THE

COLD AIR ADVECTING IN ON A NORTHERLY WIND AS THE H7 LOW PASSES

ACROSS PA THIS MORNING. SO WILL SEE A SLOW TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO

SNOW MID MORNING IN THOSE LOCATIONS W OF I95 WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS

RAINING.

WATER TEMPS IN THE BAY ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THIS WILL PRODUCE ALOT OF LATENT HEAT ON EASTERLYS ALOFT WHICH WILL

MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO MEASURE SNOW E OF INTERSTATE 95.

HAVE TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGRESS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NO CHANGES TO WINTER HEADLINES...BUT A FEW TWEAKS IN SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATIONS. ADVSRYS ARE CONTINUED DUE TO FIRST SNOWFALL OF

SEASON AS OPPOSED TO REACHING ADVSRY CRITERIA 2 INCHES.

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37 degrees and moderate rain just across the MD border in Hanover, PA. Saw that psuhoffman in Manchester, MD is getting snow so hope to see it here fairly soon. Of course he is at almost 1000 ft elevation when we are at 600 so it may take a little longer then that.

Its snowing but its not sticking at all, its still 35 degrees so your not missing much yet.

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32=33 degrees back and forth here in Leesburg, Flakes mixing in with some rain for the last 30 minutes. Loved the SPC disco and map. Would love to have a few inches out here. Highest temps since midnight as 36*

About the same here, now getting under that very heavy band- pouring

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About the same here, now getting under that very heavy band- pouring

It is so close to flipping all snow here. Im actually surprised it hasnt already but did see the ob at IAD was all snow for a short period. Up at 1200 feet just to my west just outside Round Hill, snowing nicely and grounds are completely covered with snow. Will be heading up there later this morning to check out and grab a few pics.

the IAD to Leesburg corridor will be a tough battle ground I have a feeling

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