Ian Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 LOL, you were saying it wasnt going to snow a few days ago, you were Mr Negative the whole time until the day it started. Matt said the exact same things I did initially just fewer times. I was totally right that this was not an i95 snowstorm down here and your recollection is pretty poor as I backked an elevation storm well before the day it started. I don't want praise from you but let's not fabricate the record either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Matt said the exact same things I did initially just fewer times. I was totally right that this was not an i95 snowstorm down here and your recollection is pretty poor as I backked an elevation storm well before the day it started. I don't want praise from you but let's not fabricate the record either. Fine. but go back to Ji's thread he started , you were poo pooing on this event and anyone who even thought it was going to snow in the region. I wasnt even talking about the I 95 corridor, I was talking about the region as a whole. Im not going to argue with you though. You know a lot more , well way more than I do about this field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Historic event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Fine. but go back to Ji's thread he started , you were poo pooing on this event and anyone who even thought it was going to snow in the region. I wasnt even talking about the I 95 corridor, I was talking about the region as a whole. Im not going to argue with you though. You know a lot more , well way more than I do about this field. I did poo poo it from day 5-6. Though a good part of that was all the weenie posts about the Euro laying a stripe down 95. Matt said it wasn't worth tracking because it wasn't going to happen at the same time. I can distinctly remember both of us mentioning that even then someone like trix was in much better position. I think both were the correct line of thought at the time and I'd do it again even knowing what happened. After 2 days of models heading that way it became a little more clear that elevation would get a snow event. Not till about 36 hours out was it apparent it would be sizeable. I'm not that emotionally attached to the idea of snow I guess. I do think many had it in their gut that 95 was in for a massive struggle but I can read between the lines enough to know that the NAM etc shook plenty of folks. Hence the questions why I was not buying the NAM because this looked like 12/2009 all over again. Climo still won.. even if it was more like December climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Historic event: my old home got slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I did poo poo it from day 5-6. Though a good part of that was all the weenie posts about the Euro laying a stripe down 95. Matt said it wasn't worth tracking because it wasn't going to happen at the same time. I can distinctly remember both of us mentioning that even then someone like trix was in much better position. I think both were the correct line of thought at the time and I'd do it again even knowing what happened. After 2 days of models heading that way it became a little more clear that elevation would get a snow event. Not till about 36 hours out was it apparent it would be sizeable. I'm not that emotionally attached to the idea of snow I guess. I do think many had it in their gut that 95 was in for a massive struggle but I can read between the lines enough to know that the NAM etc shook plenty of folks. Hence the questions why I was not buying the NAM because this looked like 12/2009 all over again. Climo still won.. even if it was more like December climo. Ok Fair enough Ian. I then apologize to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Ok Fair enough Ian. I then apologize to you. I went overboard initially to some degree. I won't try to hide that. But a forecast at that range with one model showing it is still fantasy even if it ends up happening... And I take this stuff much too seriously these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 So when do we do this again? This and next time all of us need to be in the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I went overboard initially to some degree. I won't try to hide that. But a forecast at that range with one model showing it is still fantasy even if it ends up happening... And I take this stuff much too seriously these days. DT was more right than you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 This and next time all of us need to be in the party Someone's going to come here and tell you that Nina climo would argue against it, so I'll be the first to do so...nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Mattie-glad your cookout went well. Thanks! Great drink, great food, great friends, and some pretty interesting weather to top it off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Someone's going to come here and tell you that Nina climo would argue against it, so I'll be the first to do so...nicely. We just need hurricanes to keep spinning up in the Carribean until next Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 DT was more right than you Shoulda hugged the YOUUUUUUUUUURO (except when it showed snow here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Historic event: Northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 We just need hurricanes to keep spinning up in the Carribean until next Mar. Make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 0.6 at IAD...that is probably the final total there It ended up Jason's CWG map was pretty good. I kind of wish I had been a little more bullish on the first CWG post and given the Euro more credit but from then on, I think the collective we handled it pretty well. It's best to east into such an event as climo is such a strong factor. The NAM though exciting was too cold and the GFS too warm. The Euro from 24-36 hrs prior to the event has pretty doggonme good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 DT was more right than you More right than me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 More right than me too. well the week before he was calling a major lakes low an east coast storm. so i guess he was due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 well the week before he was calling a major lakes low an east coast storm. so i guess he was due. Usually, he's pretty much in lock step with whatever the Euro is doing or at least it seems that way but give him credit. He certainly was earlier on the bus than we were in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Usually, he's pretty much in lock step with whatever the Euro is doing or at least it seems that way but give him credit. He certainly was earlier on the bus than we were in this case. yup--agree on all points. too bad the euro is so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 the weather keeps on giving us some presents.. ct blizz down for the count @TollandKev Kevin Just spoke to assistant chief of Tolland FD. Expect power to be out 15- 20 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 It ended up Jason's CWG map was pretty good. I kind of wish I had been a little more bullish on the first CWG post and given the Euro more credit but from then on, I think the collective we handled it pretty well. It's best to east into such an event as climo is such a strong factor. The NAM though exciting was too cold and the GFS too warm. The Euro from 24-36 hrs prior to the event has pretty doggonme good. yes...the Euro was excellent at that range....I think the CWG forecast was a good one from what I read....It is hard to commit on such an anomalous event, but it ended up being pretty textbook here for many November/Early December events and even some late season ones, so a climo/elevation forecast ended up being a good one given the model inconsistency.....I tried to caution those in the eastern parts of the warning areas to keep their expectations flexible and I think most did....I am happy with my backyard as well....got in a good band and recorded 0.25" with a nice covering on the cars, decks and grass....even Philly who scores in every event recently only got 0.3"....I am a bit more fearful of the winter outlook given the abundance of K/U events the last few years, but I don't think this storm means a whole lot for winter in terms of being a persistent storm track.....plus as you have mentioned, early season events don't usually mean great winters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 the weather keeps on giving us some presents.. ct blizz down for the count @TollandKev Kevin Just spoke to assistant chief of Tolland FD. Expect power to be out 15- 20 days Yikes. I haven't had a chance to look at reports. How much did they get up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 yup--agree on all points. too bad the euro is so good. I recall Will in one of our threads saying with the Euro giving 4-8" 66 hrs out, it's usually a lock well, that may be true for NE, but it ain't true around here sadly in the end the GFS was first to kill the snow idea for us and it ended up being right (whether or not for the right reasons) but, it's only OCT so how can anyone be too bummed disappointed, sure, but not as devastating as say the 12/26 storm was I still feel like a Cubs fan with a winning spring season at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I recall Will in one of our threads saying with the Euro giving 4-8" 66 hrs out, it's usually a lock well, that may be true for NE, but it ain't true around here sadly in the end the GFS was first to kill the snow idea for us and it ended up being right (whether or not for the right reasons) but, it's only OCT so how can anyone be too bummed disappointed, sure, but not as devastating as say the 12/26 storm was I still feel like a Cubs fan with a winning spring season at this point well it was not stellar but it at least stuck to the idea of an amped up system. i was definitely initially on the side that thought it was too amped though i also sort of expected a general nw shift into the end as almost always happens. euro mainly ended up bouncing around while other models went its direction. it's hard to believe 4-8" here unless every model shows it regardless of the month.... and then there are still caveats. i just hope it warms up a bit again--way too early for this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Its 43 here, but with no wind and clear skies it feels warmer. Like a typical late October day with some leaves still green, and the rest falling. The snow cover, which has compacted down to a 2" solid covering, looks so out of place. Very cool storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Yikes. I haven't had a chance to look at reports. How much did they get up there? not sure. the reports out of his county are not that high.. 6-10" or so, tho he is on a hill. looks like much more just west -- parts of hartford county up to 20".. looks like about that further west toward where i used to live too. im sorta surprised its that bad as peak was a bit ago up there but i guess there are still a fair amount of leaves on the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Did the .60 at IAD set any records? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 not sure. the reports out of his county are not that high.. 6-10" or so, tho he is on a hill. looks like much more just west -- parts of hartford county up to 20".. looks like about that further west toward where i used to live too. im sorta surprised its that bad as peak was a bit ago up there but i guess there are still a fair amount of leaves on the trees. Thanks. I can imagine places with a lot of leaves getting ot pretty bad if they got a good accumulation of cement-type snow. Simply amazing - it's just wanted to snow up there for the last 18-20 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Did the .60 at IAD set any records? Daily at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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