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October 29th Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF

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Highest report I could find was 27.8" in plainfield MA. Berkshire county was plastered with pretty much 20"+ everywhere.

This really was an impressive storm not matter what month but Oct pretty much puts it in the history books.

This sat pic clearly shows how important elevation was. Snow acc pretty much starts after the fall line and lines up perfectly with it. Notice the Frederick valley in MD. Not uncommon

for Damascus up to Westminster to do well and then not much in the Fred valley.

Nice picture.Yes, you can clearly seen Pars Ridge from upper Moco into Pa.

If someone can find a high res color vis sat for the EC, please post it. Snow coverage will going to be huge and it's a photo I would like for my memory folder.

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Just drove back from :Lucketts and VDOT is out spreading salt on the bridges and overpasses and ramps. Whatever is on the ground, decks, etc is pretty solid frozen over now here. It will all be gone by tomorrow afternoon though.

Great storm and nice work by Zwyts with this system. Tough one to forecast with all the possibilities but he nailed it pretty good. nice work matt.

Convenient how u attacked me then praise z since we both felt same thoughts most of the time. ;)

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Got a screen grab from http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

You can go to the site to get a higher res. version.

Hey, thanks alot for this! Back in my faves and saved the big copy. So cool how you can see snow on the ridges of W NC. 5-6600' out that way. Bershires got pretty much plastered with this event.

So fun to track a threat in Oct and see the outcome. There were ALOT of spot on calls with this system. Best analysis I've seen since psu storm last year. Many thanks to the Mets and smart weenie input on this.

I have no worries if the SE ridge does materialize during the first half of Nov. We always have a warm spell in Nov and it's pleasant to get the last outdoors stuff in the books before the real distractions start in late Nov.

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LOL, you were saying it wasnt going to snow a few days ago, you were Mr Negative the whole time until the day it started.

Matt said the exact same things I did initially just fewer times. I was totally right that this was not an i95 snowstorm down here and your recollection is pretty poor as I backked an elevation storm well before the day it started. I don't want praise from you but let's not fabricate the record either.

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Matt said the exact same things I did initially just fewer times. I was totally right that this was not an i95 snowstorm down here and your recollection is pretty poor as I backked an elevation storm well before the day it started. I don't want praise from you but let's not fabricate the record either.

Fine. but go back to Ji's thread he started , you were poo pooing on this event and anyone who even thought it was going to snow in the region. I wasnt even talking about the I 95 corridor, I was talking about the region as a whole. Im not going to argue with you though. You know a lot more , well way more than I do about this field.

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Fine. but go back to Ji's thread he started , you were poo pooing on this event and anyone who even thought it was going to snow in the region. I wasnt even talking about the I 95 corridor, I was talking about the region as a whole. Im not going to argue with you though. You know a lot more , well way more than I do about this field.

I did poo poo it from day 5-6. Though a good part of that was all the weenie posts about the Euro laying a stripe down 95. Matt said it wasn't worth tracking because it wasn't going to happen at the same time. I can distinctly remember both of us mentioning that even then someone like trix was in much better position. I think both were the correct line of thought at the time and I'd do it again even knowing what happened. After 2 days of models heading that way it became a little more clear that elevation would get a snow event. Not till about 36 hours out was it apparent it would be sizeable. I'm not that emotionally attached to the idea of snow I guess.

I do think many had it in their gut that 95 was in for a massive struggle but I can read between the lines enough to know that the NAM etc shook plenty of folks. Hence the questions why I was not buying the NAM because this looked like 12/2009 all over again.

Climo still won.. even if it was more like December climo.

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I did poo poo it from day 5-6. Though a good part of that was all the weenie posts about the Euro laying a stripe down 95. Matt said it wasn't worth tracking because it wasn't going to happen at the same time. I can distinctly remember both of us mentioning that even then someone like trix was in much better position. I think both were the correct line of thought at the time and I'd do it again even knowing what happened. After 2 days of models heading that way it became a little more clear that elevation would get a snow event. Not till about 36 hours out was it apparent it would be sizeable. I'm not that emotionally attached to the idea of snow I guess.

I do think many had it in their gut that 95 was in for a massive struggle but I can read between the lines enough to know that the NAM etc shook plenty of folks. Hence the questions why I was not buying the NAM because this looked like 12/2009 all over again.

Climo still won.. even if it was more like December climo.

Ok Fair enough Ian. I then apologize to you.

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Ok Fair enough Ian. I then apologize to you.

I went overboard initially to some degree. I won't try to hide that. But a forecast at that range with one model showing it is still fantasy even if it ends up happening...

And I take this stuff much too seriously these days.

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I went overboard initially to some degree. I won't try to hide that. But a forecast at that range with one model showing it is still fantasy even if it ends up happening...

And I take this stuff much too seriously these days.

DT was more right than you ;)

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0.6 at IAD...that is probably the final total there

It ended up Jason's CWG map was pretty good. I kind of wish I had been a little more bullish on the first CWG post and given the Euro more credit but from then on, I think the collective we handled it pretty well. It's best to east into such an event as climo is such a strong factor. The NAM though exciting was too cold and the GFS too warm. The Euro from 24-36 hrs prior to the event has pretty doggonme good.

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Usually, he's pretty much in lock step with whatever the Euro is doing or at least it seems that way but give him credit. He certainly was earlier on the bus than we were in this case.

yup--agree on all points. too bad the euro is so good.

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