ohleary Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's not going to snow. Bob Ryan just said 0% chance of a snowstorm around here. Oh. Then you're right it's not going to snow. Unless it does a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 weatherbug says 36.9 wunderground says 40.5 for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow ! Snow is covering top of the vehicles, windshields and deck, portions of the concrete steps....I am somewhat surprised- CHO- 33 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah surprised about CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow ! Snow is covering top of the vehicles, windshields and deck, portions of the concrete steps....I am somewhat surprised- CHO- 33 F Was CHO supposed to be snow now? Does seem a bit off on timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Oh. Then you're right it's not going to snow. Unless it does a little. I hope you know I was being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I hope you know I was being sarcastic. 00Z NAM sounding show CHO changing to snow between 11pm and midnight. No I grew up with Bob and found him very reliable. He has always been on the pessimistic side but more often than not right. If he's really going out on a limb like that, then it's worth listening to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not really surprising, I agree that DCA will not get anywhere near an inch. Just look at dec 5 2009, I got 5 inches while DCA had barely a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 39.4 light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 33 in CHO definitely has to be well below any of the model surface temp forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Was CHO supposed to be snow now? Does seem a bit off on timing 'I don't think so, the NWS was forecasting R/Sn tonight with accum ~ .50 inch- same tomorrow....it has a ways to go to hit .50 - I'll tell ya that...still r/sn mix - we just finished with a "burst" of floating flakes. I am still very surprised- I honestly thought a few flakes with little in the way of accumulation- which still may pan out. I'm right on edge of town but in the Ragged "Mts". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not really surprising, I agree that DCA will not get anywhere near an inch. Just look at dec 5 2009, I got 5 inches while DCA had barely a dusting. Ian says historic you say DCA won't get anywhere near an inch. But those two may not be mutually exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 KHSP (Hot Springs/Ingalls, VA) has been reporting +SN for 13 of the past 15hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Cold mist fell during softball, some light showers on the way home. Light stuff falling out there now, no idea on temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Ian says historic you say DCA won't get anywhere near an inch. But those two may not be mutually exclusive. They're not of course. Though there is not a 0% chance either. I said almost the exact same thing at the beginning of Randy's thread: At this point I dunno how anyone has much confidence in anything. I guess maybe that we'll get decent QPF but even that's tricky till you're watching the storm come in on radar. Seems to me around D.C. we're still playing the up to a trace or record October snowstorm game. I heavily discount the latter still, though not as much as before. Yet you can take an example like Dec 5 2009 where it snowed almost all day and DCA picked up .2". So, perhaps even in the low probability "best case" the airport would not pick up that much. As much as I disagree with all the bellyache about DCA early season there is still like a tropical jungle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN VA...ERN WV...WRN/CNTRL MD...S-CNTRL PA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 290434Z - 291030Z EARLY-SEASON HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 IN/HR...WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NNEWD AFTER 09Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WILL PROGRESS ENEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL SWLY JET MAX /CORE SPEEDS REACHING 150 KT AT 250 MB AFTER 09Z/ OFFERING STRONG DCVA. THESE ELEMENTS ARE BEING MANIFESTED IN THE BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN 850-MB WAVE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. INCREASING ELY/SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ALSO OF NOTE...SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF A LEAD WAVE /REF BLACKSBURG AND STERLING VA 00Z RAOBS/. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES IS ANTICIPATED FROM SSW TO NNE AFTER 09Z...AS AFFIRMED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL ENSEMBLE HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOST FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER RATES /POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR/ WITHIN 35 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM STAUNTON VA TO HAGERSTOWN MD TO HARRISBURG PA. ALSO IN THIS AREA...NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS OF THETA-E AND GEOSTROPHIC MOMENTUM SUGGEST CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE MID LEVELS TOWARD 12Z...COINCIDENT WITH SLANTWISE CAPE INCREASING TO 150-200 J/KG PER EXPERIMENTAL NAM OUTPUT. THIS WILL FAVOR WSW-ENE-ORIENTED HEAVY SNOW BANDS...AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH RATES TAPERING OFF FROM SSW TO NNE AFTER 18Z. FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST /INCLUDING AREAS FROM BALTIMORE TO THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA/...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WARMER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY SNOW. ..COHEN.. 10/29/2011 ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37757909 37457967 37508016 37838050 38848036 39697979 40187921 40447854 40507743 40247664 39517678 38687774 38087850 37757909 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Of course when I'm not in HGR is when its advantageous to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I thought you were going to visit your sister? plus it may bust out here too. Nah, no car. If I'm gonna bust, might as well bust at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 that disco is pretty hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 that disco is pretty hot yes...It will be interesting to see how well it verifies in the eastern 1/3 of their boundary.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Rain is becoming heavier with time as the coastal low develops. Steady northerly flow continues, 37 degrees. yellows are beginning to develop and move in from the SW on the radar returns. Western VA is going to get clocked by severe heavy snow rates, CSI banding and possibly thundersnows - lotsa dynamics with this system Wind flow developing a NELY component Moisture streaming right over my BY for hours from the SW - no letup at all - no breaks in the pcpn - just keeps getting heavier with time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 yes...It will be interesting to see how well it verifies in the eastern 1/3 of their boundary.... i think we might regret not renting a car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 i think we might regret not renting a car. we waited too long...ideally we would need to be on the road in 4-5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 we waited too long...ideally we would need to be on the road in 4-5 hours is the silver line open yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NELY wind gust to 21 mph Brrrrrrr wind chill down into the mid 20s Moderate rainfall, 36 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 41 with a light drizzle in downtown College Park . Even though, the way people are dressed for Halloween, you'd think it was 85 and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 41 with a light drizzle in downtown College Park . Even though, the way people are dressed for Halloween, you'd think it was 85 and sunny Agree with the last statement, but apparantly its 39.1 per weatherbug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Temp getting stuck at 36 degrees - fell to the dewpoint - can't fall any more. Lot of rain for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Rain continues - temps rose to 37, as did the dewpoint - massive boundary layer warming is evident. My BY will be spared the heavy wet snow. Temps bottomed out at 36 which was also the dewpoint. Now temps and dewpoints are rising despite cold air advection This is definitely one heavy wet snow event I wanted to miss because of all the leaves on those trees. Heavy wet snow is fine in January, not late October. We're not missin' a thang... All in all - I am jazzed - VERY ELATED that I'll receive 2 inches of rainfall - and my house will be just fine. It may be high time to throw a block party with kegs of cold beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 3 am update picture... light snow continues temp down to 31.4 trees loaded with snow. hoping going into upper 20's and wind knocks snow off trees.. dreaming can watch updates of pine trees on weather station webcam. not much showing on ground as it is hanging above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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