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October 29th Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF

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NAM was overdone and too cold.....It played out like we thought last night....I think consensus forecasts will end up verifying outside of a few local areas like FDK that just got screwed...

i was just mocking it. i forgot a smiley. ;)

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NAM was overdone and too cold.....It played out like we thought last night....I think consensus forecasts will end up verifying outside of a few local areas like FDK that just got screwed...

It looks like the NWS forecast will verify on the lower end IMBY. I was doubtful this morning, but these last bands have done the job.

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It looks like the NWS forecast will verify on the lower end IMBY. I was doubtful this morning, but these last bands have done the job.

yes....as we discussed yesterday, models and forecasts were overdone for the eastern/southern flanks of the warning areas....I cautioned people like Ji to expect 1-3", but it still stings a little when a few hundred feet up or a few miles away is several inches....

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A 6 hour radar loop also ends the argument about using radar interpretation to guess when precip ends. That's another argument that makes me really mad. If you don't understand what is going on in the atmosphere you should never post "bust! based on radar precip will be over in an hour".

Back edge is static now as the pivot happens and the bands are taking a more NE-SW orientation. The entire evolution of this system is pretty classic. This could have easily been a widespread 6-12"+ storm for us. Totally cool to watch and I sure hope this is sign. NS 500 vort digging and passing south of DC is the NINA way of giving us a good storm.

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NAM was overdone and too cold.....It played out like we thought last night....I think consensus forecasts will end up verifying outside of a few local areas like FDK that just got screwed...

No way we got screwed in FDK. It snowed all day but we didn't have the continual intensity. I got a little over an inch in an October snow event. Yes we didn't get the 6" they called for but can't complain for a Halloween snow.

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A 6 hour radar loop also ends the argument about using radar interpretation to guess when precip ends. That's another argument that makes me really mad. If you don't understand what is going on in the atmosphere you should never post "bust! based on radar precip will be over in an hour".

Back edge is static now as the pivot happens and the bands are taking a more NE-SW orientation. The entire evolution of this system is pretty classic. This could have easily been a widespread 6-12"+ storm for us. Totally cool to watch and I sure hope this is sign. NS 500 vort digging and passing south of DC is the NINA way of giving us a good storm.

we have been through this dozens of times, but it doesn't matter...weenies will always commit radar suicide the 1st sign of a back edge or dry slot....

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A 6 hour radar loop also ends the argument about using radar interpretation to guess when precip ends. That's another argument that makes me really mad. If you don't understand what is going on in the atmosphere you should never post "bust! based on radar precip will be over in an hour".

Back edge is static now as the pivot happens and the bands are taking a more NE-SW orientation. The entire evolution of this system is pretty classic. This could have easily been a widespread 6-12"+ storm for us. Totally cool to watch and I sure hope this is sign. NS 500 vort digging and passing south of DC is the NINA way of giving us a good storm.

i think we did about as well as we could have unless we go into much further fantasy than an extraordinarily anomalous storm already is

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yes....as we discussed yesterday, models and forecasts were overdone for the eastern/southern flanks of the warning areas....I cautioned people like Ji to expect 1-3", but it still stings a little when a few hundred feet up or a few miles away is several inches....

No doubt about the sting. The hill tops of Damascus frequently serve up a little extra snow. I moved from Damascus to Frederick some years ago and would often feel the sting when my mother in law who remained in Damascus would call and report her snow totals. I moved back so now I don't have to hear it.:)

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