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October 29th Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF

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drove from Linthicum Heights to my in-laws in Bel Air

some wild changes along the way

it was snowing nicely when we arrived in Bel Air, but has changed back to a mix

before anyone gives up, you ought to take a look at the current and the past runs of the RUC

much colder than last night and earlier today and the runs clearly suggests a broad deform band developing and holding on after temps crash, really it confirm the NAM and to a lesser extent, 12Z GFS

is it right? will it be cold enough for snow to accumulate? don't know but like I said, supports the NAM

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drove from Linthicum Heights to my in-laws in Bel Air

some wild changes along the way

it was snowing nicely when we arrived in Bel Air, but has changed back to a mix

before anyone gives up, you ought to take a look at the current and the past runs of the RUC

much colder than last night and earlier today and the runs clearly suggests a broad deform band developing and holding on after temps crash, really it confirm the NAM and to a lesser extent, 12Z GFS

is it right? will it be cold enough for snow to accumulate? don't know but like I said, supports the NAM

waiting for radar returns to start developing in VA again.

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http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2011&MONTH=10&FROM=2912&TO=2912&STNM=72403

12z IAD sounding. I think the NAM definitely had it right yesterday more than the GFS. Column was subfreezing down to ~950mb. Low level temps are killing those of us getting rain as much the upper levels. SPC meso analysis has the 850 0C line near IAD now and then NEward along the fall line.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

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If anyone wants to see something cool, check out the times square cameras right now

my g/f had a long planned trip to nyc that she left for at 8 this morning. i told her to send pics.

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I think we see lt snow...we could still see a superband, though I don't think it will happen over me and you......there is still a fair amount of 500mb energy to our west and southwest...it would help if the sfc low would bomb, but I don't think that will happen in time...though we should see some sort of radar pivot...We are cutting it close here, but there is no reason someone like Phineas should be pessimistic unless he was hoping to get pounded...I wouldn't be surprised if he got an inch or 2 later

the far sw edge is starting to get a bit close but. could sorta see it pivot on like a PW/fairfax county line if you stretch it out from both ends. but it could also sorta just fizzle with the stuff up north of it becoming more dominant i guess.

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