Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well yeah if you understand what he means in some of that text. I gave you the very quick and dirty explanation. yeah, well I understood yours better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 At 30hr, 0z NAM it's not colder at KTAN or close to that area vs the 12z, it's warmer at the surface. It's warmer at 850mb too in that general area. This is based on the maps that I can see. This is several runs in a row that have slightly shifted the most borderline areas on the front end NW. It changes everywhere as it collapses SE. Rudimentary sake of comparison look at the snow depth clown map in SE CT, RI, SE MA new versus old. The nam ran cold the other day. new run printStaticURL() http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=10&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=00&fhour=39¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false old run http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=10&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=12&fhour=51¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You've got to be kidding me with the fronto on the NAM.....starting to get pumped for a white wall that never wants to end around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 we're talking about a time of the year when tropical systems can reach this far north...... Jan-Feb winter storms dont have that influence lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You've got to be kidding me with the fronto on the NAM.....starting to get pumped for a white wall that never wants to end around here Colgate brother, just colgate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 At 30hr, 0z NAM it's not colder at KTAN or close to that area vs the 12z, it's warmer at the surface. It's warmer at 850mb too in that general area. This is based on the maps that I can see. This is several runs in a row that have slightly shifted the most borderline areas on the front end NW. It changes everywhere as it collapses SE. Run the soundings here for your areas, mine are colder ! Compare runs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 If you have time, what effect does elongation have? Well it might mean there is a battle going on with perhaps a few very weak low level centers in the middle of one broad area of low pressure. Convection can cause mini low centers to form, and there is the chance of some convection in an east to west fashion..hence the possible elongation. Sometimes this happens for a few hours and then the dominant low takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Supermarkets will be busy in the morning Even in Old Lyme? I mean the forecast is for an inch of snow there just like here pretty much, and no one seems to care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You've got to be kidding me with the fronto on the NAM.....starting to get pumped for a white wall that never wants to end around here Probably rain for the CT shore until late evening..the sound does wonders... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Alright well hopefully the GFS and Euro really bring it. See y'all in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 MPM is trying to be stealthy but he's just wondering about his QPF. Pete! Any word on skiing Sunday? Are you hearing of any last minute openings? Can I bring my daughter up and we can ski in the new 18" of snow you'll have by Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well it might mean there is a battle going on with perhaps a few very weak low level centers in the middle of one broad area of low pressure. Convection can cause mini low centers to form, and there is the chance of some convection in an east to west fashion..hence the possible elongation. Sometimes this happens for a few hours and then the dominant low takes over. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Even in Old Lyme? I mean the forecast is for an inch of snow there just like here pretty much, and no one seems to care. Wow really? up the road 25 miles here is 3-5 and norwalk 3-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You might want to stay on the first floor during the storm...air could get thin on the 2nd floor as the 5h low rips overhead. The chase vehicle might get blown to ACK on north winds. I think there's a good shot it blows harder than it did at any point in Irene. Looks like 09z to 13z is the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow, the GFS and now the NAM go absolutely apesh*t with winds at 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Probably rain for the CT shore until late evening..the sound does wonders... Not with a due north wind ripping down the valleys it doesnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 People will get nervous about the wind and power outages. Still jumpy from two months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow really? up the road 25 miles here is 3-5 and norwalk 3-7 95 from West Haven west will probably make out decently seeing as the ageo flow will transition and southerly flow over to the north and flip you guys quicker than SE CT..you guys might find a 6" or 8" amount...SE CT will have troulble getting over 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Good luck guys. Have fun up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Phil has more CAPE at 12z Sunday then he does in the middle of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 People will get nervous about the wind and power outages. Still jumpy from two months ago. Already am nervous... As it is, I'm guessing tonight will be my last night with heat/power/water for a couple of days... So off to bed! 12-14" for my call here Pete gets 18" Ray gets 8" Blizz gets 7.9" Ginx gets 6 but deserves 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not with a due north wind ripping down the valleys it doesnt It'll take time as the low bombs yeah you guys will have snow but itll start as 38 and rain and then flip. Ive seen it too many times, and its October..the sound is 60 and until that wind flips everyone on the shore in in trouble...I live in westbrook east of New Haven. i hate it haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Already am nervous... As it is, I'm guessing tonight will be my last night with heat/power/water for a couple of days... So off to bed! 12-14" for my call here Pete gets 18" Ray gets 8" Blizz gets 7.9" Ginx gets 6 but deserves 20 Nice call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Phil has more CAPE at 12z Sunday then he does in the middle of the summer. With those SSTs, he might have the LLJ on his front lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Phil has more CAPE at 12z Sunday then he does in the middle of the summer. 50 mph gusts from the north and 35-45 dbz.........yum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Run the soundings here for your areas, mine are colder ! Compare runs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html I just ran a skew-t from that for mby. Looks like things could start as snow out here--or have just a smidge of taint at the very start. I assume that would hold true for all of GC and probably elevations in ORH County as well? Maybe less paste more powder equalling less question about power/trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Phil has more CAPE at 12z Sunday then he does in the middle of the summer. How much Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Noyes Sorry, but I'll be pissed with 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 People will get nervous about the wind and power outages. Still jumpy from two months ago. I need a shot right now to calm my nerves. I got my ass kicked for ten days at home then at work, do not think I have the energy to do that again, put snow and cold on top of it, here's hoping for strong winds to keep the trees void of accumulation, that was a good point by you by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Probably rain for the CT shore until late evening..the sound does wonders... North Shore of LI, sure....not with these winds that are ripping ENE-NE-N... Nice effort though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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