CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Thanks. I was thinking about staying up in Andover tomorrow night because of work Sunday morning at 5am. I was hoping for a 6-8 or 6-9 deal there too. At least you're in ASH away from the marine taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Could see this happening, seems the ML centers will be farther south. The other storm this reminds me of is 12 03 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Could see this happening, seems the ML centers will be farther south. The other storm this reminds me of is 12 03 03 But doesn't that show the storm passing over the elbow? I thought this storm was going over ACK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 But doesn't that show the storm passing over the elbow? I thought this storm was going over ACK... 12/9/05 went over the Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That band as shown would nuke eastern areas. There's gonna be a sick gradient between areas just to my se like Hull and Weymouth, and areas like Needham for example. Even today, there was snow in Hyde Park..like a coating still OTG this morning while I had nothing, That's about 4 miles as the crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I was thinking about staying up in Andover tomorrow night because of work Sunday morning at 5am. I was hoping for a 6-8 or 6-9 deal there too. At least you're in ASH away from the marine taint. Yeah I like my location. Won't do as well as GC but that's to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Notice the inflow off the srn coast of Maine here. That's where I see Ray getting blasted by some real intense gravity type wave stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 But doesn't that show the storm passing over the elbow? I thought this storm was going over ACK... That's why I said the ML centers seem farther south in my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 12/9/05 went over the Canal. Whoops...didn't see the date. Thought that was this last winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That's why I said the ML centers seem farther south in my post. They aren't compact though as 12/9/05...we'll have to see how that materializes. The ML centers will start off fairly broad but they will become more tightly wound as time goes on in this storm. That's why some people could be fooled into thinking its toaster time early on and then get surprised as everything bombs out to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I was thinking about staying up in Andover tomorrow night because of work Sunday morning at 5am. I was hoping for a 6-8 or 6-9 deal there too. At least you're in ASH away from the marine taint. Head for GC. MPM will give you a guest shawl. I'll drive you around the Tundra in the Tundra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 They aren't compact though as 12/9/05...we'll have to see how that materializes. The ML centers will start off fairly broad but they will become more tightly wound as time goes on in this storm. That's why some people could be fooled into thinking its toaster time early on and then get surprised as everything bombs out to the east. Did you see the MM 5 tropo maps, disgustingly beautiful, hole in the atmosphere during the bombogenisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I guessed 2.5" for me earlier and Will thought closer to 4". I'm a little uneasy about where I am for a majority of the storm and don't know how this last band will set up..or where, but that band has the potential to really bomb someone. Basically all that warm and moisture laden air will be forced west and then squeezed, so that we have that narrow but possibly very heavy band of snow moving east. This is high octane air that this low will ingest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 How did the late SREF's look are are they not out yet? As much as I dislike them longer ranges....they've been a good harbinger in the shorter rangers of upcoming NCEP guidanace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 How much of a weenie am I? I'm sitting in my car in the parking lot of the Limington library mooching their WiFi waiting for the 21z SREFs. Not naked yet. I was fortunate enough to have company for dinner so they were a great distraction. Now I hope to sleep at least 6 hours. I didn't sneak away once to check my computer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 srefs look at tad east from 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 SREFs look a bit west of 15z? Looks like they go over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I guessed 2.5" for me earlier and Will thought closer to 4". I'm a little uneasy about where I am for a majority of the storm and don't know how this last band will set up..or where, but that band has the potential to really bomb someone. Basically all that warm and moisture laden air will be forced west and then squeezed, so that we have that narrow but possibly very heavy band of snow moving east. This is high octane air that this low will ingest. You seem less confident? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The meso models are really making this thing compact on the nw quadrant of the storm. If you put me in a coma and woke me up...I would have thought that it was January and no big deal that I was seeing what is shownon the models. To have the column dynamically cool to snow in October only 40-50 miles from the low center is epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 srefs look at tad east from 15z SREFs look a bit west of 15z? Looks like they go over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 SREFs look a bit west of 15z? Looks like they go over ACK. I guess I need better graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 SREFs looked almost the same at 06z Sunday. Maybe a hair cooler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 There's almost certain to be some premature nooses tied in this...esp for E areas. But all hell should break loose later as the system has those incredible height falls to the ESE and eventually E. That's what makes this likely to be different than the Boxing day dryslot issues...the upper air nuked out too far to our SW in that one. I know you guys are much more focused on your areas and rightfully so. That said the 12z Euro was actually far more impressive IMBY than any previous run. What's tough for SE MA particularly is that these storms have a bad habit of lifting the comma head too far NE as they exit brushing norther areas. We'll see, but it's going to be awesome to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 SREFs looked almost the same at 06z Sunday. Maybe a hair cooler? Yes it really compresses the isotherms. Its slp track looks a tick W of the 15z run, but its actually E with the -4C 850 isotherm. Its really crunching them together...goes well with what you said is happening on the NW side of this storm. The dynamics are just insane. It looks like it has that nasty stinger too on the tail of the CCB...even evident on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yes it really compresses the isotherms. Its slp track looks a tick W of the 15z run, but its actually E with the -4C 850 isotherm. Its really crunching them together...goes well with what you said is happening on the NW side of this storm. The dynamics are just insane. It looks like it has that nasty stinger too on the tail of the CCB...even evident on the mean. what do you mean by stinger? just heavy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The mean qpf nudged ALB to around 1.2" ...from 1"..... srefs look at tad east from 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The meso models are really making this thing compact on the nw quadrant of the storm. If you put me in a coma and woke me up...I would have thought that it was January and no big deal that I was seeing what is shownon the models. To have the column dynamically cool to snow in October only 40-50 miles from the low center is epic. LOL I still have snow on my deck a full day after 1 inch of snow in Oct after a day of full sun, epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 SREFs looked almost the same at 06z Sunday. Maybe a hair cooler? Thanks to all three of you.... I think that's a relieving sign if it hasn't moved much. Let's see what shakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On my almost full shade elevated deck I have 2.5" of the 4" left at least. In the sun areas it was 90% wiped out...combination of full sun, warm wet ground underneath and upper 30's. 30 here now..... Oh today was very late first freeze and it was 24 degrees... LOL I still have snow on my deck a full day after 1 inch of snow in Oct after a day of full sun, epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You seem less confident? Tough to see how it will break down here near the water. The good thing for this area, is that I don't stick out into the water like Cape Ann or Hull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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