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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - III


Baroclinic Zone

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theres never been a winter storm warning nevermind a blizzard warning im sure some places will see the criteria met

anyone hearing about blizzard warnings? I mean you have the winds for more than 3+ hrs. and now it seems this is trending colder, so the snow.. what are we missing?

also has there ever been a blizzard warning for SNE this early?

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anyone hearing about blizzard warnings? I mean you have the winds for more than 3+ hrs. and now it seems this is trending colder, so the snow.. what are we missing?

also has there ever been a blizzard warning for SNE this early?

GYX addressed this in their early-AM AFD for their CWA. Said they'd held off on blizzard warnings only because the wet nature of the snow would likely prevent the visibility threshold from being met. So they've gone with the WSW and High Wind Warning instead.

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Starting to think Will and HubbDave are getting close to being the winners. That DS may make it into I-95 region or a bit west, but I think we'll have low level frontogenesis going to town at the same time.

Scott or Will. Haven't really heard anything about the Southern NH area. Do you think my area looks good to get that band?

Thanks.

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But what's odd is that the Euro is the least dynamic solution

Right, which is largely due to the delayed intensification because of the interference from the south. Which other models seem to be grabbing now. Euro may correct back towards the more dynamic models, or it may be leading the charge we'll know tonight.

Are you tugging something else with each tug east??

It could go 100 miles east and it won't matter for me. I have 55 degree water 150 feet from my feet, not going to help until the backside bomb tonight.

Yep, wouldn't be a winter storm with Messenger flaunting his RUC and southeast trend fetishes

There isn't a data set that we have that's rapid updating right now that isn't SE. Not a fetish, just reality. Doesn't mean it's right. Albany NWS made a clear mention of it too. This was not yet their forecast and they've given the 12z NAM more credence, but "OTHERWISE...LATEST NEAR-TERM RUC13/HRRR...AND SFC OBS DEPICT TWO

SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING TRENDS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS

INDICATE BEST FORCING TRANSLATING ACROSS S/E AREAS ONLY...WITH

STRONGEST FGEN ACROSS MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH MUCH

WEAKER FORCING FURTHER N/W. SHOULD RADAR TRENDS BEGIN TO INDICATE

THAT THIS MAY COME TRUE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED

BACK...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY...ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN VALLEY PORTIONS

OF THE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE MAINLY

RAIN OCCURRING THUS FAR ACROSS EASTERN PA. THIS MAY BE RELATED TO

THE RELATIVELY WEAKER PRECIP RATES THUS FAR...AND ALSO SOME

SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. AS FORCING

INTENSIFIES...DYNAMICAL COLUMNAR COOLING MAY LEAD TO MORE SNOW.

AGAIN...BOTH OF THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL HOURS...AS EITHER OR BOTH COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO LESS

SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE REGION."

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theres never been a winter storm warning nevermind a blizzard warning im sure some places will see the criteria met

BZWs are hard to verify period in this area. With the coastal sites being the most likely to verify wind criteria, boundary layer warmth will probably prevent the snow from reaching the 1/4SM visibility criteria. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sites flirt with it though.

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Just read the latest NWS message for my forecast area...10-14" really. Don't get me wrong, I'm pumped for any snow this early, but I'm having trouble with these numbers. I haven't had a chance to look at any models since last night.What kinda of QPF is expected for western CT?

37.5 /29..wind picking up and smelling like snow out there!

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