Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - III


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Overperforming early wet bulb cooling and an overperforming dry slot?

I think it may be more indicative of the storm being a little east or wanting to go a little east. So more cold air is draining. If that is the case it should mute the dry slot for all of you.

Note models like the HRRR continue the subtle shift SE. Not the back edge of the heavier stuff in just 1 hour. Also note the interaction with old rina way to the south. Placement of that system is messing with the mods too.

loop1.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't seem to find the web page...but dendritic snow crystal growth actually occurs at warmer temperatures when salt is the primary ice nuclei. Also, in the presence of significant moisture excess and lift you can get dendritic growth at warm temperatures than the typical -12 to -18c that is indicated in BUFKIT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ya i've been lookin at echos in NPA and central NY drying up ....looks like Confluence.......eating away at it. and i say this regarding the shift in ALbany's discussion SE with less qpf nw....(all MPM jokes aside).....so i was thinkin on a hotel in gardner but i wonder if that is too far north for this one....perhaps i should look just west of ORH ? any one have any thoughts ideas

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ya i've been lookin at echos in NPA and central NY drying up ....looks like Confluence.......eating away at it. and i say this regarding the shift in ALbany's discussion SE with less qpf nw....(all MPM jokes aside).....so i was thinkin on a hotel in gardner but i wonder if that is too far north for this one....perhaps i should look just west of ORH ? any one have any thoughts ideas

Try the Marriot Courtyard on Rte 2 in Fitchburg (on the Prnceton line)

They have an indoor water park (in case there is no snow)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ya i've been lookin at echos in NPA and central NY drying up ....looks like Confluence.......eating away at it. and i say this regarding the shift in ALbany's discussion SE with less qpf nw....(all MPM jokes aside).....so i was thinkin on a hotel in gardner but i wonder if that is too far north for this one....perhaps i should look just west of ORH ? any one have any thoughts ideas

Starting to think Will and HubbDave are getting close to being the winners. That DS may make it into I-95 region or a bit west, but I think we'll have low level frontogenesis going to town at the same time.

i hate nowcasting...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't seem to find the web page...but dendritic snow crystal growth actually occurs at warmer temperatures when salt is the primary ice nuclei. Also, in the presence of significant moisture excess and lift you can get dendritic growth at warm temperatures than the typical -12 to -18c that is indicated in BUFKIT.

Yeah salt particles can allow for growth at like -8C

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Starting to think Will and HubbDave are getting close to being the winners. That DS may make it into I-95 region or a bit west, but I think we'll have low level frontogenesis going to town at the same time.

I think so.

Later HRRR of the 12z is out. Note the shift from the 11z. Again long into its range but it's consistent throughout. Tangle seems to be in handling old circulation with rina way south. How everything interacts in the next few hours is king. Definitely hints on the 12z HRRR that there will be that elongation the euro advertised.

loop2.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

actually the 7H is further East on the 12Z than 6 by about 30 miles, the dry slot looks SE, reminds me of 1/12/11 a lot.

Well the whole thing is north a bit in the beginning. Either way the GFS/NAM at 6z showed some dry slot potential for a period of time S & E of I-84 even up to Will... or at least a period of time when the precip rates drop and snow growth craps the bed.

Either way I think I may be snow wire to wire here in HFD.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...