Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 12Z NAM gives you 1.5" of liquid .8" here and 1" in ALB.... Drops off like a cliff just northwest of here, but you guys are very safely into the mega band. Yeah ALB definitely too high from Toga north to Andy's area if the NAM verifies. Good--based on this from Albany, I'll need the best ratio I can muster! I might still eek it out though since that valleys' on the other side of the Berks. OTHERWISE...LATEST NEAR-TERM RUC13/HRRR...AND SFC OBS DEPICT TWO SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING TRENDS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS INDICATE BEST FORCING TRANSLATING ACROSS S/E AREAS ONLY...WITH STRONGEST FGEN ACROSS MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH MUCH WEAKER FORCING FURTHER N/W. SHOULD RADAR TRENDS BEGIN TO INDICATE THAT THIS MAY COME TRUE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY...ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE MAINLY RAIN OCCURRING THUS FAR ACROSS EASTERN PA. THIS MAY BE RELATED TO THE RELATIVELY WEAKER PRECIP RATES THUS FAR...AND ALSO SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. AS FORCING INTENSIFIES...DYNAMICAL COLUMNAR COOLING MAY LEAD TO MORE SNOW. AGAIN...BOTH OF THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS EITHER OR BOTH COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO LESS SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 somewhat concerning to see the 700mb low on the NAM over Kevin's head at 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'd be concerned in the lower spots closer to the coast for outages. Thinking LWM-BED-SFZ area perhaps and within 20 miles or so. Prob IJD too. is this a problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 you really don't think WCT/southern WMA is still the jackpot? I mean it works out for me either way, because I'm home in possible jackpot A right now, and I'll be going back to possible jackpot B tomorrow I didn't mean it looked bad for your area..just that these nudge east allows for the better banding to nudge east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 is this a problem? Got a chainsaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 somewhat concerning to see the 700mb low on the NAM over Kevin's head at 03z. why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Got a chainsaw? no.. crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What a gift for all of us who waited weeks through all the awful temp talk. Now ski MRG will have snow up to his hair....which in this case goes down to his calves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 somewhat concerning to see the 700mb low on the NAM over Kevin's head at 03z. Yeah dry slot hell. RUC going the same way but it's outside of it's useful range at that point. If the Euro holds the course and the current situation supports it....great. If it caves west that dryslot could be a bugger on the CP until the cold air rushes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Heavy snow in clinton,nj...switched about an hour ago...flakes mixing in edison....seems like an early swap...good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Every chart, model output. Stamped with October 29 date.....right....remove stamp and guess the date January-February. Historic in many ways. NO question forever the October benchmark. CIPS http://www.eas.slu.e...12&fhr=F036= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 why? you're more in danger of a dry slot if the 700mb is over you or to your north. Ideally, it tracks just to your south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Chris, thanks for the tropo maps! Phil sniffing ozone, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 you're more in danger of a dry slot if the 700mb is over you or to your north. Ideally, it tracks just to your south. Ah ok. Thanks. I think the way it is shown as you described - it will still be to my south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well, the most reliable forecasting tool of all is in our favor. The smoke from the chimney is indicating snow. Never fails. Great to be outside before Halloween with snow on the ground and more, much more on the way. Looks and feels like December. I've had enough watching of the models. Now cast time upcoming and time to get outside and enjoy. Have fun boys!!! Vicious Winter incoming!! Vicious Vicious Winter!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Anyone agree that these things tend to verify colder than most guidance usually portrays...thus bring the 3-6" into KBOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What a gift for all of us who waited weeks through all the awful temp talk. Now ski MRG will have snow up to his hair....which in this case goes down to his calves. What room will you put the nursery in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What room will you put the nursery in? That nice glass encased room you're building me at 2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Seeing E MA in the comma head of such an explosive system on 12z NAM...12/9/05 seems very similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsh Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Lt snow & rain mix on Greenwich Avenue in Greenwich, CT elevation 100+/- feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well, the most reliable forecasting tool of all is in our favor. The smoke from the chimney is indicating snow. Never fails. Great to be outside before Halloween with snow on the ground and more, much more on the way. Looks and feels like December. I've had enough watching of the models. Now cast time upcoming and time to get outside and enjoy. Have fun boys!!! Vicious Winter incoming!! Vicious Vicious Winter!!!! Good luck, y'all! been a blast as always following along and now its finally go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Enjoy the snow up there. Temperatures are dropping fast down here. Down to 36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 No pickles thats 200MB damn you ginxy that's right ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Good luck, y'all! been a blast following along and now its finally go time LOL thats our Peter right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 BUMP BECAUSE that's important. I think models as mentioned and the WV are all indicating this subtle but persistent shift S&E and it needs to be monitored. Man you live for these SE shifts haha...expecting no less than ten posts per hour showing why this will be 12 miles east of progs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think You, Will, and Kevin are looking a little better. It's gonna thump there. Freezing ass off here at soccer. I like 16 or so for NE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 damn you ginxy that's right ! Get your butt up to WA WA, 12-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Enjoy the snow up there. Temperatures are dropping fast down here. Down to 36 degrees. you are turning soon...edison went to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Get your butt up to WA WA, 12-16 Won't open for 4 weeks... so he can hike it and sled down it, but no lifts. Weenie Ridge should be rockin in a few hours. You should make out ok as well. Blizz getting another 14"er. 2011 has been the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What a gift for all of us who waited weeks through all the awful temp talk. Now ski MRG will have snow up to his hair....which in this case goes down to his calves. Just think you may have to wait another few years for a solution like this to occur..even in January. This will be very hard to beat this winter. Another 6 weeks of temp talk to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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