N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The CCB signal is pretty amazing, the easterly wind anomalies at 850 mb are running around -5 SDs. i believe there was a pro met here who used to say that 850 mb 2.5 -3 S.D or greater easterly wind anomalies called for a stall or capture of the storm and thus longer duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just a pressure check of the low. 0z & 6Z NAM/GFS had 1008 mb at 15z Buoy 44014 has 1007 mb at 1350z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Am I crazy to be thinking the snow's not going to be all that wet in GC? I've been running skew-t's and Im not sure where the wet snow would be coming into play really. Of couse, those might not reveal it to my untrained eye. But, I htnk we'll actually have decent raitos in the hinterlands. Am I off my rocker? 32.6/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Am I crazy to be thinking the snow's not going to be all that wet in GC? I've been running skew-t's and Im not sure where the wet snow would be coming into play really. Of couse, those might not reveal it to my untrained eye. But, I htnk we'll actually have decent raitos in the hinterlands. Am I off my rocker? 32.6/28 no mike i don't believe you are ...this is a 1 in 200 year event this is AWESOME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Am I crazy to be thinking the snow's not going to be all that wet in GC? I've been running skew-t's and Im not sure where the wet snow would be coming into play really. Of couse, those might not reveal it to my untrained eye. But, I htnk we'll actually have decent raitos in the hinterlands. Am I off my rocker? 32.6/28 No wet snow. Could be a tiny bit wet when it starts, but I don't think it will be wet there, or at ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 No wet snow. Could be a tiny bit wet when it starts, but I don't think it will be wet there, or at ORH. Pretty much the places that don't want the wet snow wrt tree foliage are the places that will see wet snow, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 WHDH showing that metro west could have Thunder Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Euro wins again. Now does it continue to nudge east at 12z as well..ie the subtle trend east as Rina interacts is picked up moreso by the Euro? I think it might. It I were Will I'd have a giant stiffy right now. He's in the best spot for not uplanders. He is looking good. Earlier I thought Rindge, NH/Nucker area might jackpot, but now I think SW, more towards Will Either way, this will be big around me. Lots of plows on trucks this morning. Good wind driven catspaws for you before some real snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Hey everyone...any update or forecasts for max wind gusts on the south shore...not very often you see a high wind warning over such a large swath...overlapped with winter storm warnings...what will max winds be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 i believe there was a pro met here who used to say that 850 mb 2.5 -3 S.D or greater easterly wind anomalies called for a stall or capture of the storm and thus longer duration can any met confirm this reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 No wet snow. Could be a tiny bit wet when it starts, but I don't think it will be wet there, or at ORH. Good--based on this from Albany, I'll need the best ratio I can muster! I might still eek it out though since that valleys' on the other side of the Berks. OTHERWISE...LATEST NEAR-TERM RUC13/HRRR...AND SFC OBS DEPICT TWO SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING TRENDS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS INDICATE BEST FORCING TRANSLATING ACROSS S/E AREAS ONLY...WITH STRONGEST FGEN ACROSS MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH MUCH WEAKER FORCING FURTHER N/W. SHOULD RADAR TRENDS BEGIN TO INDICATE THAT THIS MAY COME TRUE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY...ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE MAINLY RAIN OCCURRING THUS FAR ACROSS EASTERN PA. THIS MAY BE RELATED TO THE RELATIVELY WEAKER PRECIP RATES THUS FAR...AND ALSO SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. AS FORCING INTENSIFIES...DYNAMICAL COLUMNAR COOLING MAY LEAD TO MORE SNOW. AGAIN...BOTH OF THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS EITHER OR BOTH COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO LESS SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 No wet snow. Could be a tiny bit wet when it starts, but I don't think it will be wet there, or at ORH. I agree, I checked the KCON sounding because it was the closest available from my pre-set, but around 09z tonight 200 mb of snowgrowth and ripping omega. They should be thumping, and the only near freezing temps occur right at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Talk dirty. Nowcast seems to be over-performing, bodes well. DYNAMICS FTW. Earlier start - later finish. Burst of 2"hr rates for an encore in morning for an hour or two! Bravo! It's a nowcast. Phil is right I think the situation is evolving and so dynamic no model will nail it because by the time runs like the Euro are out we already see some shifts. I think the Euro idea of east and colder is going to be closest to right though. ToddWBZ Todd Gutner Find the shovel and put on the plows...they will be needed in all towns tomorrow morning...all! #wbz I think right down to the coast west of 3a. Just a pressure check of the low. 0z & 6Z NAM/GFS had 1008 mb at 15z Buoy 44014 has 1007 mb at 1350z Appreciated! The RUC continues east and colder. For those that are thinking I'm saying it's a miss let's be clear...it's just nudging colder as we get nearer the event which will only solidify the snow potential in the border regions and probably continue to bring others into the game around Norwood, Sharon, Easton, Brockton if it continues... Remember the Euro was far enough east at 0z that it had areas like Bridgewater going to snow tonight very rapidly in a deluge of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 can any met confirm this reasoning Just spit balling, but it could be that you have an deep closed 850 low, hence more likely a slower system overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Good--based on this from Albany, I'll need the best ratio I can muster! I might still eek it out though since that valleys' on the other side of the Berks. OTHERWISE...LATEST NEAR-TERM RUC13/HRRR...AND SFC OBS DEPICT TWO SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING TRENDS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS INDICATE BEST FORCING TRANSLATING ACROSS S/E AREAS ONLY...WITH STRONGEST FGEN ACROSS MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH MUCH WEAKER FORCING FURTHER N/W. SHOULD RADAR TRENDS BEGIN TO INDICATE THAT THIS MAY COME TRUE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY...ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE MAINLY RAIN OCCURRING THUS FAR ACROSS EASTERN PA. THIS MAY BE RELATED TO THE RELATIVELY WEAKER PRECIP RATES THUS FAR...AND ALSO SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. AS FORCING INTENSIFIES...DYNAMICAL COLUMNAR COOLING MAY LEAD TO MORE SNOW. AGAIN...BOTH OF THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS EITHER OR BOTH COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO LESS SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BUMP BECAUSE that's important. I think models as mentioned and the WV are all indicating this subtle but persistent shift S&E and it needs to be monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 No wet snow. Could be a tiny bit wet when it starts, but I don't think it will be wet there, or at ORH. Tim Kelly was referring to what he called the 3-3-3 rule.... 3+" of snow, 33F temps, 30+mph winds = not so good for those who enjoy electricity Even a drier snow can stick a bit, but hopefully it won't be as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Was actually supposed to start as rain here....guess thats not going to happen. Sn- 41/28, temp starting to dip a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Good--based on this from Albany, I'll need the best ratio I can muster! I might still eek it out though since that valleys' on the other side of the Berks. OTHERWISE...LATEST NEAR-TERM RUC13/HRRR...AND SFC OBS DEPICT TWO SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING TRENDS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS INDICATE BEST FORCING TRANSLATING ACROSS S/E AREAS ONLY...WITH STRONGEST FGEN ACROSS MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH MUCH WEAKER FORCING FURTHER N/W. SHOULD RADAR TRENDS BEGIN TO INDICATE THAT THIS MAY COME TRUE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY...ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE MAINLY RAIN OCCURRING THUS FAR ACROSS EASTERN PA. THIS MAY BE RELATED TO THE RELATIVELY WEAKER PRECIP RATES THUS FAR...AND ALSO SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. AS FORCING INTENSIFIES...DYNAMICAL COLUMNAR COOLING MAY LEAD TO MORE SNOW. AGAIN...BOTH OF THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS EITHER OR BOTH COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO LESS SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE REGION. Looks like there going to cut your qpf mike..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Pretty much the places that don't want the wet snow wrt tree foliage are the places that will see wet snow, yes? I'd be concerned in the lower spots closer to the coast for outages. Thinking LWM-BED-SFZ area perhaps and within 20 miles or so. Prob IJD too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The RUC continues east and colder. For those that are thinking I'm saying it's a miss let's be clear...it's just nudging colder as we get nearer the event which will only solidify the snow potential in the border regions and probably continue to bring others into the game around Norwood, Sharon, Easton, Brockton if it continues... Remember the Euro was far enough east at 0z that it had areas like Bridgewater going to snow tonight very rapidly in a deluge of QPF. yeap, all good for me.. not so good for our friends way out west, I hope everyone can get in on some fun, including SE MASS/Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 From CT Homeland Security HISTORIC MAJOR WINTER STORM APPROACHING OUR AREA…SLIGHTLY COLDER SCENARIO WITH MORE SNOW, MORE WIND AND LESS RAIN… WINTER STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR LITCHFIELD, HARTFORD, TOLLAND, WINDHAM AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD, NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES… HIGH WIND WARNING ISSUED FOR NEW LONDON, COASTAL MIDDLESEX AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES... WIND ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN MIDDLESEX, NORTHERN NEW HAVEN AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD COUNTIES... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE... VERY SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE… At 9:00 AM radar showed mixed precipitation aloft over Connecticut. This rain and snow is not yet reaching the ground. Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 30's across the state. A low pressure system located off the Coast of North Carolina is beginning to intensify as the storm moves to the northeast. The latest computer models are forecasting that a major Winter Storm will impact our area beginning this afternoon and continuing through daybreak on Sunday with heavy wet snow across Northern and Central Connecticut and a mix of rain and snow in Southern and Southeastern CT. The latest track forecast for this storm is predicting that the low pressure system currently located off the North Carolina Coast this morning will move Northeast today and rapidly intensity as the storm moves to a position 50 miles southeast of Long Island by 8:00 PM. Rain mixed with snow is expected to reach the ground in Southern Connecticut by 11 AM and in Northern CT by Noon. This Afternoon...A mix of rain and snow is expected between Noon and 2:00 PM. After 2:00 PM the precipitation is expected to become heavier and changeover to wet snow from Northwest to Southeast. The rain/snow level is also expected to drop from 1,000 feet at 2:00 PM into the valleys of Northern and Central CT by 5:00 PM. The wet snow is expected to become heavy at times late this afternoon. The core of this storm is expected between 5:00 PM this afternoon and 3:00 AM Sunday morning with heavy wet snow inland, mixed with rain along the immediate coast and in Southeastern CT. Strong North Northeast winds are expected to gust to 40 - 50 MPH inland and near 60 MPH along the Southeast Coast. Snowfall rates 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible overnight. Minor coastal flooding is expected during high tide later tonight. The main threat from this storm will be from the heavy wet snow combined with strong winds bringing down tree limbs and many whole trees causing a very significant number of power outages across the state. A secondary threat from this storm will be from very heavy wet snow which will result in very poor driving conditions overnight. Whiteout conditions are possible at times overnight. The snow is expected to taper off to flurries around daybreak on Sunday. Total snowfall is expected to be elevation dependant with valleys in Central and Northern CT receiving 6 – 10 inches, the higher terrain above 500 – 1000 feet receiving 8 - 16 inches of heavy wet snow and the immediate coast receiving 3 - 7 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Looks like there going to cut your qpf mike..... that sizzle we just heard was a toaster being dropped in Shelburne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 He is looking good. Earlier I thought Rindge, NH/Nucker area might jackpot, but now I think SW, more towards Will Either way, this will be big around me. Lots of plows on trucks this morning. Good wind driven catspaws for you before some real snow I think You, Will, and Kevin are looking a little better. It's gonna thump there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 yeap, all good for me.. not so good for our friends way out west, I hope everyone can get in on some fun, including SE MASS/Cape You mentiuoned this last night I believe. Your area might do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I agree, I checked the KCON sounding because it was the closest available from my pre-set, but around 09z tonight 200 mb of snowgrowth and ripping omega. They should be thumping, and the only near freezing temps occur right at the surface. I can't believe how cold it is. We are gonna be begging for this thermal profile in January..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We've been having them as well, but sporadic enought where I'm amused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We've been having them as well, but sporadic enought where I'm amused. A very good sign as far as I'm concerned. Always bodes well when a few renegades show up well ahead of the wall of white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 i believe there was a pro met here who used to say that 850 mb 2.5 -3 S.D or greater easterly wind anomalies called for a stall or capture of the storm and thus longer duration No pickles thats 200MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think You, Will, and Kevin are looking a little better. It's gonna thump there. you really don't think WCT/southern WMA is still the jackpot? I mean it works out for me either way, because I'm home in possible jackpot A right now, and I'll be going back to possible jackpot B tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 that sizzle we just heard was a toaster being dropped in Shelburne I'm taking I'm actually going to blow all ratio expectaitions out of the water and wind up with 12+. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.