N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I am leaning colder. I also am wondering if the wind helps cut down on accumulation on trees, starting to see some decent gusts here at work. wind direction is NNE, dP is dropping from 31 to 29. Really would like to see the Euro be right, would be less concerns over damage. A plain good old fashion Noreaster will be good enough to satisfy me. a run of the mill october beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Good old RUC shows death band from East Slopes th Dendrites area the past few runs... http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p01.gif 6z NAM may end up too far NW compared to other guidance (we'll see), but it romps up here 9z tonight. H6-H8 frontogenesis is superb and I have an isothermal layer near -15C from H75-H55. There would be awesome snow growth in that wherever it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 HRRR shows the 850-700 frontogenesis just pounding SNE later on. That's the way to avoid the DS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I am leaning colder. I also am wondering if the wind helps cut down on accumulation on trees, starting to see some decent gusts here at work. wind direction is NNE, dP is dropping from 31 to 29. Really would like to see the Euro be right, would be less concerns over damage. A plain good old fashion Noreaster will be good enough to satisfy me. Yeah, I don't need to have the thrill of historic tree damage to be satisfied! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 My dew point has dropped as well, but my temp has gone up to 36.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Do you have a generator? We invested in one before Irene hit and might get a chance to put it to use. I am hoping the colder trend keeps us more powdery but our trees are still 50-75% leaf. Going to fire up the new wood stove for the first time today, psyched not to have to worry about heat with the baby. Yes, actually own several for work. I keep one 7500 watt generator here at the house. I'm not really worried about power loss though. Not really any leaves on the trees and I think once it cranks the snow will be a bit dry. Wood back up is a requirement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We will see on the elongation. Storm needs to really form up first before we can see which camp is right but look at last nights GFS vs UK to see the two extremes at 850mb. The GFS has a warm core with the dominant center well to the west, the UK and somewhat the Euro wants to have a more oval low. That's why the Euro lost some of the winds too. I think the euro idea is going to be more right based on the w/v this am. But to be honest I'm watching Toy Story 3 with the little one...so I'm not looking that closely EDIT: a quickly look at the RUC 12z 9h vs 10z 11h...note the NW edge of the precip is a little SE. Thanks, I just discovered the model side by side comparison sites this year. Makes it a lot easier than having 10 windows open. I enjoy comparing the models and then looking at the pressure readings on the coastal buoys to see where the bombing starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 28/27 with overcast skies here in Rindge. Thinking 8-12" is a nice call as the best QPF may end up south of here, although 6z GFS still had a shade over 1.25" and NAM was close to 1.75", I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Looks like all systems are go today, Congrats to all.. where is Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 think my local nws office is out to lunch calling for rain and snow till 10pm in manchester nh! then flip to snow and back to rain and snow tomorrow morning! with only 3 to 7" when everyone else is calling for may be a brief sstart of rain but quickly to snow with at least 6 to 12" ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 FWIW SREFs seemed to hold serve from 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa....pmsl&underlay=1# nice surface pressure map.....wonder how tight the low may get SSw of the lP on that map there is also what appears to be a string of low pressure (S) another little low Se of myrtle beach and another Just off naples (just like models have) ...well the one's i have looked at (nam) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 He should do fine. I don't think he'll jackpot up there, but a solid 10 inch storm seems like a good bet, unless there are some unexpected shenanigans. We always have to talk him off the QPF ledge.lol I'm usually not very nervous about qpf as we seem to always wring out all that is available. This is God's Country afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Probably not going to see any one model be a dead ringer. Sort of have to pick and choose aspects of each and combine some climo knowledge. all in all they are all relatively similar and the subtle differences are the equivalent of trying to nowcast r/s line etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Is BC going to be playing in rain or snow at 3-6 PM in College Park, MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Probably not going to see any one model be a dead ringer. Sort of have to pick and choose aspects of each and combine some climo knowledge. all in all they are all relatively similar and the subtle differences are the equivalent of trying to nowcast r/s line etc well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 LOL...my neighbors across the street decided to have an impromptu tag sale this morning! I mean who's going to go tag sale shopping on a grey, cold morning like this, particularly given the wall of snow coming our way? Some folks are just completely out of it. Anyway, not much change in my thinking for around here. Snow arrives early afternoon from S to N with big time meso banding later today and tonight. Could very well be some 2-3" per hour rates and thundersnow. Totals of about 11-12" look like a good bet here in the PSF area, with 14-16" at 2K and on much of the east slope above 1K. These numbers will probably be a little less above route 2, as QPF starts to drop off quickly heading into VT and toward ALB. If the meso banding really smokes us, there's a chance someone could reach 18". Should be fun! You had me until above Route 2, Mitch. Enjoy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Snowing in Harrisburg now. Did you see people posting about tree branches coming down after just 1-2" of slop, might be a bad sign of things to come for the non-damage lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Light snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Light snow here Virga hear in north stamford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 FWIW SREFs seemed to hold serve from 03z. Nothing new on the HRRR so far either. Note the old spin off Carolinas from the remnants of Rina...cool. Low would be due south of Block, due east of SNJ on this map. May have consolidated it a bit west ala NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Mitch you are in a great spot...hours of snow plus under the deform band. http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p01.gif Looks like that puts this area right near the pivot point FWIW. I'll post obs periodically as long as I have power. Classic snow sky now at 33. Thick clouds came in early enough to shield away the sun from warming the BL too much. I was a little worried we might get a couple of hours of filtered sun this morning, giving things a chance to warm up a bit. The clouds are keeping last night's cold air near the surface. Looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Light snow here :snowman: awesome, love watching those returns head north, is someone putting up an ob thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 RUC jumped the center east a little versus the 11z 6hr...here is all that I can see so far of the 13z. A little colder too. Wind is starting to crank here. This is an odd storm already, cannot believe the winds we're getting already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Looks like that puts this area right near the pivot point FWIW. I'll post obs periodically as long as I have power. Classic snow sky now at 33. Thick clouds came in early enough to shield away the sun from warming the BL too much. I was a little worried we might get a couple of hours of filtered sun this morning, giving things a chance to warm up a bit. The clouds are keeping last night's cold air near the surface. Looking good... 32.3/28 here. Just put down some melter on my deck--who woudl have thought I'd be introuble for not shoveling it on October 27! lol All iced over and my back door to its' my one egress that's not dealing with roof slides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Must be winter Messenger banging the RUC. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The dynamics with this system are going to be fun to watch. As an example here is the 06z NAM depiction of the 1.5 PVU surface. Aloft you can see the stratospheric intrusion, or trop fold, extending down to around 700 mb. From the surface extending upward, you can see latent heat release generated PV. These two features in combination will increase the cyclonic circulation of the rapidly developing system. You can see the evidence of that with the wind speed that is overlaid in green. A core of 60-70 knot northeasterly winds behind the PV anomaly, and aloft 100-120 knot exiting jet streak. In both cases any amount of convective mixing could allow for some significant wind gusts. For reference, the NAM (and GFS/EC) roll this trop fold right over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We're probably going to want an obs only thread...if someone wants to start it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The NAM's still showing the love--chrikey!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Probably not going to see any one model be a dead ringer. Sort of have to pick and choose aspects of each and combine some climo knowledge. all in all they are all relatively similar and the subtle differences are the equivalent of trying to nowcast r/s line etc Yep agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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