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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - III


Baroclinic Zone

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So how can this bust?? Dryslot? Convection robbing some moisture? I don't really see a big bust potential at this time..though I can't rule out the DS or weird subsidence zones I suppose.

#1 and it's a biggie, the m/l energy rocketing up over the eastern Carolinas that the Euro allows to escape which causes the bobbling of the low, and slower intensification. The elongation each forms under that in the models which almost resembles and could be feedback, but I think more than likely it's a real deal and will run some interference. As a result it dropped the precip shield a smidge SE. Can already see the split over EVA.

That's a real feature, plain as day this morning. Would be a big concern if I were doing this for a living because I don't think the Euro had the wrong idea. At about 9am looking at it, the NAM botched the placement of the main vorticity diving in to KY and TN. I think that's clear from the WV and the 500mb analysis. The Euro was much better. Neither was great with the antecedent feature from the old Rina rocketing up. So? I think we do see an elongated low and that may rob intensification for a bit.

Awesome watching the hole being cut out in the atmosphere http://weather.rap.u...e=-1&duration=5

g13.2011302.1215_US_wv.jpg

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LOL...my neighbors across the street decided to have an impromptu tag sale this morning! rolleyes.gif I mean who's going to go tag sale shopping on a grey, cold morning like this, particularly given the wall of snow coming our way? Some folks are just completely out of it.

Anyway, not much change in my thinking for around here. Snow arrives early afternoon from S to N with big time meso banding later today and tonight. Could very well be some 2-3" per hour rates and thundersnow. Totals of about 11-12" look like a good bet here in the PSF area, with 14-16" at 2K and on much of the east slope above 1K. These numbers will probably be a little less above route 2, as QPF starts to drop off quickly heading into VT and toward ALB. If the meso banding really smokes us, there's a chance someone could reach 18". Should be fun!

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Messenger, I'm in Kingston near the Pembroke line, I know most of this is a wash out for us down on the S. Shore but do you think we could flip over towards end? Any idea when? I know I'm asking a lot since this is a very rare storm but just curious.

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LOL...my neighbors across the street decided to have an impromptu tag sale this morning! rolleyes.gif I mean who's going to go tag sale shopping on a grey, cold morning like this, particularly given the wall of snow coming our way? Some folks are just completely out of it.

Anyway, not much change in my thinking for around here. Snow arrives early afternoon from S to N with big time meso banding later today and tonight. Could very well be some 2-3" per hour rates and thundersnow. Totals of about 11-12" look like a good bet here in the PSF area, with 14-16" at 2K and on much of the east slope above 1K. These numbers will probably be a little less above route 2, as QPF starts to drop off quickly heading into VT and toward ALB. If the meso banding really smokes us, there's a chance someone could reach 18". Should be fun!

Hi Mitch, this is going to be a fun weekend. You just got poor MPM to convulse under his shawl.

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Looks like we might just get flurries out here. Oh well.

Do you have a generator?

We invested in one before Irene hit and might get a chance to put it to use.

I am hoping the colder trend keeps us more powdery but our trees are still 50-75% leaf.

Going to fire up the new wood stove for the first time today, psyched not to have to worry about heat with the baby.

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LOL...my neighbors across the street decided to have an impromptu tag sale this morning! rolleyes.gif I mean who's going to go tag sale shopping on a grey, cold morning like this, particularly given the wall of snow coming our way? Some folks are just completely out of it.

Anyway, not much change in my thinking for around here. Snow arrives early afternoon from S to N with big time meso banding later today and tonight. Could very well be some 2-3" per hour rates and thundersnow. Totals of about 11-12" look like a good bet here in the PSF area, with 14-16" at 2K and on much of the east slope above 1K. These numbers will probably be a little less above route 2, as QPF starts to drop off quickly heading into VT and toward ALB. If the meso banding really smokes us, there's a chance someone could reach 18". Should be fun!

hey MPM .....get the toaster ready Jk :)

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I am leaning colder. I also am wondering if the wind helps cut down on accumulation on trees, starting to see some decent gusts here at work. wind direction is NNE, dP is dropping from 31 to 29. Really would like to see the Euro be right, would be less concerns over damage. A plain good old fashion Noreaster will be good enough to satisfy me.

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Messenger, I'm in Kingston near the Pembroke line, I know most of this is a wash out for us down on the S. Shore but do you think we could flip over towards end? Any idea when? I know I'm asking a lot since this is a very rare storm but just curious.

I'd follow the wunderground euro maps for now. I think they show a pretty quicky change mid evening for you.

Yup and if Messenger is right about the elongated low then your deformation band is not going to be as impressive.

You can probably cut your expected totals in half the way this is trending Mike. ;)

:snowman:

We will see on the elongation. Storm needs to really form up first before we can see which camp is right but look at last nights GFS vs UK to see the two extremes at 850mb. The GFS has a warm core with the dominant center well to the west, the UK and somewhat the Euro wants to have a more oval low. That's why the Euro lost some of the winds too.

I think the euro idea is going to be more right based on the w/v this am. But to be honest I'm watching Toy Story 3 with the little one...so I'm not looking that closely :)

EDIT: a quickly look at the RUC 12z 9h vs 10z 11h...note the NW edge of the precip is a little SE.

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