ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Unfortuatnley, Dave's the jackpot, and 8 miles out is hte screwzone. Enjoy it! Oh really? We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 anyone have a NWS ALB snowfall map for the albany viewing area....i'd like to see what they have for berks v. orh hills (in box NWS map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 anyone have a NWS ALB snowfall map for the albany viewing area....i'd like to see what they have for berks v. orh hills (in box NWS map) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Steve, Have you changed your thoughts for our area? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....now_PNS/WSW.htm thanks i was looking to see how they measure up with the 18inch and greater HPC probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 So how can this bust?? Dryslot? Convection robbing some moisture? I don't really see a big bust potential at this time..though I can't rule out the DS or weird subsidence zones I suppose. #1 and it's a biggie, the m/l energy rocketing up over the eastern Carolinas that the Euro allows to escape which causes the bobbling of the low, and slower intensification. The elongation each forms under that in the models which almost resembles and could be feedback, but I think more than likely it's a real deal and will run some interference. As a result it dropped the precip shield a smidge SE. Can already see the split over EVA. That's a real feature, plain as day this morning. Would be a big concern if I were doing this for a living because I don't think the Euro had the wrong idea. At about 9am looking at it, the NAM botched the placement of the main vorticity diving in to KY and TN. I think that's clear from the WV and the 500mb analysis. The Euro was much better. Neither was great with the antecedent feature from the old Rina rocketing up. So? I think we do see an elongated low and that may rob intensification for a bit. Awesome watching the hole being cut out in the atmosphere http://weather.rap.u...e=-1&duration=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Updated zone has me starting as snow with a high in the upper 30's. Don't think that high's gonna play out so well. 31.1/27 They have me with a high of 42 and it's 30/29 right now. As Pete said, classic snow sky now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Lots of snow obs in northern burbs of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Pressure off Virginia at 29.77 and falling. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Reports of mixing in NJ N and SE of Philly also, at fairly low elevation. If the Euro is right, then winds might be overdone but the system might be a bit colder (i.e. more snow closer to the coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Reports of mixing in NJ N and SE of Philly also, at fairly low elevation. If the Euro is right, then winds might be overdone but the system might be a bit colder (i.e. more snow closer to the coast). And qpf gets shunted SE a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 And qpf gets shunted SE a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm just conitnuing the outcomes of your observation--nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 if we start as snow here we are going to get buried. Currently 34/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 LOL...my neighbors across the street decided to have an impromptu tag sale this morning! I mean who's going to go tag sale shopping on a grey, cold morning like this, particularly given the wall of snow coming our way? Some folks are just completely out of it. Anyway, not much change in my thinking for around here. Snow arrives early afternoon from S to N with big time meso banding later today and tonight. Could very well be some 2-3" per hour rates and thundersnow. Totals of about 11-12" look like a good bet here in the PSF area, with 14-16" at 2K and on much of the east slope above 1K. These numbers will probably be a little less above route 2, as QPF starts to drop off quickly heading into VT and toward ALB. If the meso banding really smokes us, there's a chance someone could reach 18". Should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Messenger, I'm in Kingston near the Pembroke line, I know most of this is a wash out for us down on the S. Shore but do you think we could flip over towards end? Any idea when? I know I'm asking a lot since this is a very rare storm but just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 And qpf gets shunted SE a bit. Yup and if Messenger is right about the elongated low then your deformation band is not going to be as impressive. You can probably cut your expected totals in half the way this is trending Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 LOL...my neighbors across the street decided to have an impromptu tag sale this morning! I mean who's going to go tag sale shopping on a grey, cold morning like this, particularly given the wall of snow coming our way? Some folks are just completely out of it. Anyway, not much change in my thinking for around here. Snow arrives early afternoon from S to N with big time meso banding later today and tonight. Could very well be some 2-3" per hour rates and thundersnow. Totals of about 11-12" look like a good bet here in the PSF area, with 14-16" at 2K and on much of the east slope above 1K. These numbers will probably be a little less above route 2, as QPF starts to drop off quickly heading into VT and toward ALB. If the meso banding really smokes us, there's a chance someone could reach 18". Should be fun! Hi Mitch, this is going to be a fun weekend. You just got poor MPM to convulse under his shawl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yup and if Messenger is right about the elongated low then your deformation band is not going to be as impressive. You can probably cut your expected totals in half the way this is trending Mike. Looks like we might just get flurries out here. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Did everything trend warmer overnight while I was asleep? My PCF went from 10-17" to 6-10". Just wondering why they might have knocked it down...for those of us who actually sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Good old RUC shows death band from East Slopes th Dendrites area the past few runs... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/ruc/11/ruc_namer_015_precip_p01.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Hi Mitch, this is going to be a fun weekend. You just got poor MPM to convulse under his shawl. He should do fine. I don't think he'll jackpot up there, but a solid 10 inch storm seems like a good bet, unless there are some unexpected shenanigans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 No Cool. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Looks like we might just get flurries out here. Oh well. Do you have a generator? We invested in one before Irene hit and might get a chance to put it to use. I am hoping the colder trend keeps us more powdery but our trees are still 50-75% leaf. Going to fire up the new wood stove for the first time today, psyched not to have to worry about heat with the baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 He should do fine. I don't think he'll jackpot up there, but a solid 10 inch storm seems like a good bet, unless there are some unexpected shenanigans. Mitch you are in a great spot...hours of snow plus under the deform band. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/ruc/11/ruc_namer_016_precip_p01.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Did everything trend warmer overnight while I was asleep? My PCF went from 10-17" to 6-10". Just wondering why they might have knocked it down...for those of us who actually sleep Shift change at NWS office. Models still look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 LOL...my neighbors across the street decided to have an impromptu tag sale this morning! I mean who's going to go tag sale shopping on a grey, cold morning like this, particularly given the wall of snow coming our way? Some folks are just completely out of it. Anyway, not much change in my thinking for around here. Snow arrives early afternoon from S to N with big time meso banding later today and tonight. Could very well be some 2-3" per hour rates and thundersnow. Totals of about 11-12" look like a good bet here in the PSF area, with 14-16" at 2K and on much of the east slope above 1K. These numbers will probably be a little less above route 2, as QPF starts to drop off quickly heading into VT and toward ALB. If the meso banding really smokes us, there's a chance someone could reach 18". Should be fun! hey MPM .....get the toaster ready Jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I am leaning colder. I also am wondering if the wind helps cut down on accumulation on trees, starting to see some decent gusts here at work. wind direction is NNE, dP is dropping from 31 to 29. Really would like to see the Euro be right, would be less concerns over damage. A plain good old fashion Noreaster will be good enough to satisfy me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Messenger, I'm in Kingston near the Pembroke line, I know most of this is a wash out for us down on the S. Shore but do you think we could flip over towards end? Any idea when? I know I'm asking a lot since this is a very rare storm but just curious. I'd follow the wunderground euro maps for now. I think they show a pretty quicky change mid evening for you. Yup and if Messenger is right about the elongated low then your deformation band is not going to be as impressive. You can probably cut your expected totals in half the way this is trending Mike. We will see on the elongation. Storm needs to really form up first before we can see which camp is right but look at last nights GFS vs UK to see the two extremes at 850mb. The GFS has a warm core with the dominant center well to the west, the UK and somewhat the Euro wants to have a more oval low. That's why the Euro lost some of the winds too. I think the euro idea is going to be more right based on the w/v this am. But to be honest I'm watching Toy Story 3 with the little one...so I'm not looking that closely EDIT: a quickly look at the RUC 12z 9h vs 10z 11h...note the NW edge of the precip is a little SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Snowing in Harrisburg now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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