CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah Euro continues to deepen later And was also farther east. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You're gonna be in a great spot. Death band banked up against the east side of the crest. Tha's what I'm hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We're definitely advecting some dry air south in the boundary layer. Dew points have been dropping since I've gotten to work. Even HPN has a td of -3 now. North wind here too, maybe just east of north. Looking at the models from post midnight. Euro...the clown maps show an explosive area of snow Lakeville up to Brockton associated with some super intense precip. It actually flips a huge area a little earlier just far enough back from the water. Not sure if that's going to happen but interesting. Overall on the border region its a smidge warmer..maybe 3-4 miles at the same time increments but that could just be storm motion timing. NAM and Euro largely agree on a rapid explosive movement of the snow line SE and a change with everyone but Phil and I (everyone west of canal and west of 3a down near the canal) getting 2+" Hard to say until the storm really starts to take shape but I wonder if it does end up a little more to the SE like the 0z Euro, not far from the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Congrats Phil on the HYA ZFP. NORTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. Zonks!!! Heavy overcast came in very quickly. Getting some things put away, barn door on, test out th egenerator and snowblower one more time. 30.3/28. Confident in an all-snow scenario, hoping for my qpf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 And was also farther east. Something to watch. Definitely. I think we have to consider that models are going to struggle to some extent on the exact placement of such a dynamic storm. They aren't designed and really have never been tested in this situation where we have 55 degree ocean water fueling what is mostly a major winter storm off the coast of MA. It just doesn't happen and hasn't happened in modern meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Also of note the buoy is up and operational in the new spot about 12 miles off Truro. Great gauge of what air may be getting fed over eastern MA. Dewpoint on 33 there still. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I just don't see how the local mets are giving Boston 3-6, the suburbs more, and BOX is giving it trace... Meh, just worry about it at verification time. You have your call they have theirs. I can see how we'd get roasted and toaster tub'd and end up with little to no accumulation. I just think we'll get it good with the second half of the storm as many of the mets have indicated as the cold crashes south with the low bombing out. 4-7" is what I'm thinking for here, hope it works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Congrats Phil on the HYA ZFP. NORTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. That's nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Channell 22's map looks reasonable. But, if we can get better ratios--like I think is a distinct possibility--the amounts may be somewhat underdone. As far as I could tell, Channell 40 didn't even make a mpa. SREF's in about 10 minutes? 30.8/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 With the NAM and the Meso's insisting on closer and much more intense conditions than the euro so close in I would think more weight would be attached to their predictions. I was very surprised this morning at how much different the Euro is dynamically from almost all other models. Actually much much better for me IMBY but I do not buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just got up. I can't believe the 06z NAM is even juicier!! I know it's overdone, but WOW Surprised to see the NWS generally lower snowfall a bit across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Death band banked up against the east side of the crest. Tha's what I'm hoping for. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 With the NAM and the Meso's insisting on closer and much more intense conditions than the euro so close in I would think more weight would be attached to their predictions. I was very surprised this morning at how much different the Euro is dynamically from almost all other models. Actually much much better for me IMBY but I do not buy it. This is just nuts Ginxxx....NAM has been steadfast every run for a couple days with this....gonna be fun fun fun http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t06z/frontb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just got up. I can't believe the 06z NAM is even juicier!! I know it's overdone, but WOW Surprised to see the NWS generally lower snowfall a bit across the board I think Albany's been consistent for my adjacent zones. Amounts I endorse. ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES FOR VALLEY AREAS OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. 5 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...VALLEY AREAS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT...AND THE HELDERBERGS...WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000 FEET WITH LOCALLY UP TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Also of note the buoy is up and operational in the new spot about 12 miles off Truro. Great gauge of what air may be getting fed over eastern MA. Dewpoint on 33 there still. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44018 About time Scott eh? we have pushing for that since WWBB days, remember when Walt Drag had us submit posts so he could bring them to a hearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 BOX did cut me an inch but serious nonetheless I hope media goes to the Cape just for the wind. Here it is just big snow and broken oaks, devastated towns, many deaths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Almost wondering if I pretty much start as snow and it ends up not being that wet up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 SREFs love a good shawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 So how can this bust?? Dryslot? Convection robbing some moisture? I don't really see a big bust potential at this time..though I can't rule out the DS or weird subsidence zones I suppose. Definitely concerned about a subsidence zone outside of the death band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 BOX did cut me an inch but serious nonetheless I hope media goes to the Cape just for the wind. Here it is just big snow and broken oaks, devastated towns, many deaths I'm liking where you sit for the jackpot, Dave. Still think there's a possibility it could be west of you (but I can't for the life of me think of anyone who lives out there), but you're in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Zonks!!! Heavy overcast came in very quickly. Getting some things put away, barn door on, test out th egenerator and snowblower one more time. 30.3/28. Confident in an all-snow scenario, hoping for my qpf.. Just a quintessential snow sky here. We won't waste any time, all snow here. I was afraid if it was sunny for a while today we might lose some of the existing snowpack. No need to worry there. snow on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 With the NAM and the Meso's insisting on closer and much more intense conditions than the euro so close in I would think more weight would be attached to their predictions. I was very surprised this morning at how much different the Euro is dynamically from almost all other models. Actually much much better for me IMBY but I do not buy it. The Euro has been first all along with the other models eventually following. I do think there is a chance at development interruptus on this one and a subsequent juggle east. Even the S MM5 kind of shows this elongation occuring east as an oval low spirals out by the BM. Is it possible the models are overplaying this entire ordeal because they are having a real hard time with the dynamics? Sure, could also be the Euro is choking for that reason. Like I was saying I doubt in the history of computer models there has been a situation like this off our coast so how can they have design parameters to handle it? All other things equal which model typically handles minute details better...the Euro...so until proven otherwise at 12z I think it's time to ride that bus CT Blizz style (no pants on). Just got up. I can't believe the 06z NAM is even juicier!! I know it's overdone, but WOW Surprised to see the NWS generally lower snowfall a bit across the board In general the weathermen are taking a cautious approach. About time Scott eh? we have pushing for that since WWBB days, remember when Walt Drag had us submit posts so he could bring them to a hearing. Yep! Drag would be happy. I miss him. Chatham commercial guys were not happy. I was just out fishing next to the BB (the area) not long ago. Long ride. Glad they've moved it, more useful for more people and we should see some epic seas recorded this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm liking where you sit for the jackpot, Dave. Still think there's a possibility it could be west of you (but I can't for the life of me think of anyone who lives out there), but you're in a great spot. ill be 8 miles to his N or NNW in gardner at 1100' plus 30.5 /25 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Updated zone has me starting as snow with a high in the upper 30's. Don't think that high's gonna play out so well. 31.1/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Congrats. Mmm, tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 ill be 8 miles to his N or NNW in gardner at 1100' plus Unfortuatnley, Dave's the jackpot, and 8 miles out is hte screwzone. Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Steve, Have you changed your thoughts for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Unfortuatnley, Dave's the jackpot, and 8 miles out is hte screwzone. Enjoy it! i will thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 For those in Southern CT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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