Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The first snow has started at a NWS asos in NY State ....in KELZ. Probably. If not...it might be a brief rasn mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Start as snow here? You can check your soundings here http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Well there was Christmas 2002 ....huge one for us out here.... Another very big Noreaster a few weeks later in January 2003. I thought it might have been the Christmas one. I had used the storm as a reason not to travel to Marblehead. To this day, my wife holds it against me as the year without a Christmas. She and I along at home. Me looking at the models/Eastern wondering when the hell the snow would start. I keep reminding her that we ended up with 18" of snow and it's a good thing we didnt' make the trip. Still in the doghouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 30/29 Actually a surprisingly bright morning here. Very few clouds overhead but you can see the wall to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Morning Y'all....just got into work here at the Bow Power Plant...noticed on my drive in from Manchester most of the trees still have all their leaves....should be interesting...any changes for Southern NH in the overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Many leaves left on the trees? Yeah..I'm feeling good about this one. Not that I'll jackpot..but that I'll see 12+..Hopefully 11 of that is wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Apparently this area got 30 inches on Xmas 2002.... I got 18" below ALB were I still resided at the time. You can check your soundings here http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html I thought it might have been the Christmas one. I had used the storm as a reason not to travel to Marblehead. To this day, my wife holds it against me as the year without a Christmas. She and I along at home. Me looking at the models/Eastern wondering when the hell the snow would start. I keep reminding her that we ended up with 18" of snow and it's a good thing we didnt' make the trip. Still in the doghouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The first snow has started at a NWS asos in NY State ....in KELZ. Were the forecasted to start as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah..I'm feeling good about this one. Not that I'll jackpot..but that I'll see 12+..Hopefully 11 of that is wet I'm not so sure it will be wet. I'm concerned for areas like Ray and even up here at work...down into the 128 area. That area will have a much wetter snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Initially the 7H low sets up rather far west and that offers us our best shot of good snow, but not a great position for snow in SNE in the early going. Then as it bombs off the coast the whole show shifts to NE and overnight I'd assume is when everyone over there can flip to good snow. By then we are west of the best action, but maybe still getting in on some lesser banding. Yeah I agree with that. I think you guys will do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah..I'm feeling good about this one. Not that I'll jackpot..but that I'll see 12+..Hopefully 11 of that is wet You have a generator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Ohh probably.... They are at like 2300 elevation on the Allegany Plateau. I like that it is starting so far west though. Were the forecasted to start as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm not so sure it will be wet. I'm concerned for areas like Ray and even up here at work...down into the 128 area. That area will have a much wetter snow. Yeah I agree. The valley locations here are going to get thumped with 0-1c paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Morning Y'all....just got into work here at the Bow Power Plant...noticed on my drive in from Manchester most of the trees still have all their leaves....should be interesting...any changes for Southern NH in the overnight? coffee and reading the overnight thread....still think we do well.dendrite says 5-8 for him, nws says 6-12. nothing radical has changed....cold here! 26 now. the question for us s whether we can into the good band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 LOL ORH 35/22 right now. Enjoy your ground blizzard in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Many leaves left on the trees? Half are down..maybe even more. Mostly just Oaks are left with leaves..Rest are down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 LOL ORH 35/22 right now. Enjoy your ground blizzard in October. 34.6/26 here It's a powder snowstorm I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 LOL ORH 35/22 right now. Enjoy your ground blizzard in October. That dew point seems a bit low. AFN is -3c for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You have a generator? Don't think I'll lose power. With these low dews temps will drop into the upper 20's quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Where has GAY been? The biggest event of his life and he's basically been MIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 34.6/26 here It's a powder snowstorm I think I hope you're right Blizz. I don't want to be without power for a prolonged period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Looking at the satellite you can see the cloud tops starting to cool over the mid-atlantic as they move Northeast. On a side now am a bit concerned about losing power in my area as the snow will likely be wet and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm not so sure it will be wet. I'm concerned for areas like Ray and even up here at work...down into the 128 area. That area will have a much wetter snow. I'm thinking that while we might not have fine powder here that the ratios wil pretty 'ordinary'. I "think( it's going to be a good run of the mill snowstorm for up here. As I'm typing this, the sun just broke the horizon. I just realized how far south it's rising these days. I have a pretty far vantage point from here. We have high cirrus overhead. Looks pretty clear to the east and broken overcast to the SE. South west looks solid overcast. Given start times, I imagine these will b efilling in pretty dar quickly. 29.8/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I hope you're right Blizz. I don't want to be without power for a prolonged period of time. It seems like the mets agree . I think only Eastern and coastal areas will have wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not sure that even a drier snow on the trees will prevent some outages, but i hope so. Winds might even help us I wish I was on the Cape for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Where has GAY been? The biggest event of his life and he's basically been MIA He passed out after drinking too many cosmos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not sure that even a drier snow on the trees will prevent some outages, but i hope so. Winds might even help us I wish I was on the Cape for this Good point, Dave. Did you sleep at a Holiday Inn Express? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 6z NAM for AVP had a 2M t/td of 36/27. Actual was 37/33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 34.6/26 here It's a powder snowstorm I think Too bad, Kevin. It would have lasted longer otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 6z NAM for AVP had a 2M t/td of 36/27. Actual was 37/33. What did the 06 gfs have there? It looked like it came in a fair bit warmer than the 00z (at least at the surface). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I wonder if we will see blizzard warnings somewhere in se nh, s me or ne mass. GYX has a great discussion this am (Arnold?) and they basically say that the wet nature of the snow will not lower visibility enough despite the fact that winds will meet criterial in some spots. I think at the peak of the storm it is quite possible that it will be a drier more powdery snow and in fact there will be blizzard conditions. I would think these areas would be those areas that are close enough to the coasts to get frequent gusts of 30 but enough inland to have drier snow. I also like their forecast of a general 6-12 with locally higher amounts. This is with 9 or 10:1 ratios. In the mega deform band won't ratios be a good bit higher given temps in the snow growth zone? Seems that some of those locally higher amounts will be 18+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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