CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Pivot point NW CT through GC? Yeah it might be, although we have to watch if it sort of redevelops further east as the low goes bonkers. Also, there might be a secondary area of echoes developing near the canal and pivoting nw associated with the low level frontogenesis, If the DS does come in..it might make the stuff near and se of BEDto IJD a little more showery in nature or maybe a brief lull, but I don't think the DS will be a huge issue with continuous height falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I wish UNV and IPT started at snow. That's a bit disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Giddy as a school girl right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I wish UNV and IPT started at snow. That's a bit disappointing. I could see the BL warmth overperforming for a bit early in the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 My guess..strong mesoscale banding associated with 700 low will spread from the south in an arc from west to east. This band will pivot west to nw CT and up through GC and sw NH. However, tremendous frontogenesis from 850-700 should keep some convective like bands going across SNE under the DS at 500mb. It might not even be a complete DS on a line from GHG to UUU and points nw. As 500mb dips its fanny into ACK sound, we should see that GC band move east and possibly intensify as high octane theta-e air gets injected into this system. Tonight will be wild for eastern areas after 06z. Sounds like fun. Scott--how much of the qpf do you expect to be wasted due to rain? I just ran skew-t's for mby with NAM and GFS and it has me as a snow start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Dear Lord. Look at 06z GFS BUFKIT for HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I wish UNV and IPT started at snow. That's a bit disappointing. Had they been forecasted to start as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Sounds like fun. Scott--how much of the qpf do you expect to be wasted due to rain? I just ran skew-t's for mby with NAM and GFS and it has me as a snow start. I think you may start as snow. If you don't...it will be a very brief mix. Congrats on getting buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 28/25 and ovc here now. Seems like we fast forwarded about 5 or 6 weeks wx-wise. Life on the edge (of the good snow bands) here later today. Reminds me of Boxing Day where I got 7 inches and Pete got like 20"+...... But it's nowcasting now and watching radar. LOL--you beat me to it, though I was going to give him two. It's going to be a cold halloween for the trick or treaters Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I just don't see how the local mets are giving Boston 3-6, the suburbs more, and BOX is giving it trace... Dude...come on. You will be fine....just enjoy this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think you may start as snow. If you don't...it will be a very brief mix. Congrats on getting buried. Thanks--my quetsion was actually a regional one, not a mby one. It seemed there was a difference between the sounding and the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 If you look at the 6z NAM bufkit soundings you can sort of see a dry slot signal at 00z with some drying at about 600mb moving through areas like HFD/TOL and especially HVN/GON. Back toward the northwest in the Litchfield Hills the soundings remain moist with big omega in the SGZ. Incidentally the NAM brings back big time omega and moisture in the SGZ by 3z as the CCB begins to crash east. Something to watch particularly in areas that have a hard time accumulating through 00z with boundary layer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Thanks--my quetsion was actually a regional one, not a mby one. It seemed there was a difference between the sounding and the forecast. Well the higher elevation spots will barely waist any QPF. Down by HFD and up through this area, there will be some mix for a period of time..maybe later aftn? Across BOS..I don't think they sniff a changeover until after 03z, but it could be several hours of RASN being reported. But, several miles inland might be snow. Thinking MQE could be interesting. SREFs love HubbDave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 If you look at the 6z NAM bufkit soundings you can sort of see a dry slot signal at 00z with some drying at about 600mb moving through areas like HFD/TOL and especially HVN/GON. Back toward the northwest in the Litchfield Hills the soundings remain moist with big omega in the SGZ. Incidentally the NAM brings back big time omega and moisture in the SGZ by 3z as the CCB begins to crash east. Something to watch particularly in areas that have a hard time accumulating through 00z with boundary layer issues. Same thing at ORH too around 00z on the NAM (and even GFS) BUFKIT soundings. Monster thump after that though. Can see weenie dry slot/poor snow growth suicide around 00z before the real fun begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 31/29 here right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 If you look at the 6z NAM bufkit soundings you can sort of see a dry slot signal at 00z with some drying at about 600mb moving through areas like HFD/TOL and especially HVN/GON. Back toward the northwest in the Litchfield Hills the soundings remain moist with big omega in the SGZ. Incidentally the NAM brings back big time omega and moisture in the SGZ by 3z as the CCB begins to crash east. Something to watch particularly in areas that have a hard time accumulating through 00z with boundary layer issues. Yeah it may make it more convective.showery in nature for a few hours, but I still think there might be another second area closer to the Cape where low level forcing from the 900-800mb area will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Same thing at ORH too around 00z on the NAM (and even GFS) BUFKIT soundings. Monster thump after that though. Can see weenie dry slot/poor snow growth suicide around 00z before the real fun begins. I predict some toaster baths for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NAM and GFS all agree that Phil is fooked tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah it may make it more convective.showery in nature for a few hours, but I still think there might be another second area closer to the Cape where low level forcing from the 900-800mb area will be huge. Agreed... that should be rain though. May have a sucker hole for a period of time ORH-HFD while it's ripping in God's Country and Litchfield County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We are definitely in unchartered territory, so I will enjoy whatever I get. Big bust potential inside 495 and especially 128. This should be fun to watch pan out, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We are definitely in unchartered territory, so I will enjoy whatever I get. Big bust potential inside 495 and especially 128. This should be fun to watch pan out, regardless. I think we will do surprisingly well....8-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think you may start as snow. If you don't...it will be a very brief mix. Congrats on getting buried. Start as snow here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Agreed... that should be rain though. May have a sucker hole for a period of time ORH-HFD while it's ripping in God's Country and Litchfield County SPC WRF is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Initially the 7H low sets up rather far west and that offers us our best shot of good snow, but not a great position for snow in SNE in the early going. Then as it bombs off the coast the whole show shifts to NE and overnight I'd assume is when everyone over there can flip to good snow. By then we are west of the best action, but maybe still getting in on some lesser banding. If you look at the 6z NAM bufkit soundings you can sort of see a dry slot signal at 00z with some drying at about 600mb moving through areas like HFD/TOL and especially HVN/GON. Back toward the northwest in the Litchfield Hills the soundings remain moist with big omega in the SGZ. Incidentally the NAM brings back big time omega and moisture in the SGZ by 3z as the CCB begins to crash east. Something to watch particularly in areas that have a hard time accumulating through 00z with boundary layer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well the higher elevation spots will barely waist any QPF. Down by HFD and up through this area, there will be some mix for a period of time..maybe later aftn? Across BOS..I don't think they sniff a changeover until after 03z, but it could be several hours of RASN being reported. But, several miles inland might be snow. Thinking MQE could be interesting. SREFs love HubbDave. Thanks--and congrats, Dave!!!! Same thing at ORH too around 00z on the NAM (and even GFS) BUFKIT soundings. Monster thump after that though. Can see weenie dry slot/poor snow growth suicide around 00z before the real fun begins. I predict some toaster baths for sure. I donot' remember what massive blizzard we had during 2002 and 2004 (I lose track--Will would be horrified by my lack of memory of such things). But I was living in ORH and the sun was peaking thorugh at the onset for aoubt an hour while heavy snow was falling elsewhere across the region. Worst feeling! Days starting out nice and sunny here it looks like. We'll see how long that lasts. 30.0/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think we will do surprisingly well....8-12? I don't know. It's October, so I guess anything could happen. My backyard thermometer still hasn't given me my first freeze yet. Maybe we made it yesterday morning...If this was January with SST of 35, then I'd be balls to the wall with 12+. That warm ocean worries me though. We'll rip early Sunday regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Some of those meso models really get that death band closer to Kevin and Will. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well there was Christmas 2002 ....huge one for us out here.... Another very big Noreaster a few weeks later in January 2003. Thanks--and congrats, Dave!!!! I donot' remember what massive blizzard we had during 2002 and 2004 (I lose track--Will would be horrified by my lack of memory of such things). But I was living in ORH and the sun was peaking thorugh at the onset for aoubt an hour while heavy snow was falling elsewhere across the region. Worst feeling! Days starting out nice and sunny here it looks like. We'll see how long that lasts. 30.0/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Start as snow here? Probably. If not...it might be a brief rasn mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Some of those meso models really get that death band closer to Kevin and Will. Something to watch. Yeah..I'm feeling good about this one. Not that I'll jackpot..but that I'll see 12+..Hopefully 11 of that is wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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