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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - III


Baroclinic Zone

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ANYONE

are there any signs of banding in the berks and W CT for tommorrow......i have a hunch the death band is gonna sit out there for a while late eveing thru overnite

Yeah I think it may pivot out there...the banding parameters are off the charts it seems. Everywhere should have their fair share of heavy banding though....it could really go nuts for a time overnight as this storm loses itself SE of MA.

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NAM simulated radar looks pretty nuts for W. Ma.

ya i saw that i wanted to see if any other models like ARW HRRR or whatever they are called show sick banding out there....i think a band will set up with thunder out near the berks to W CT/ near Ny border (give or take 15 miles) and with coolest temps i could see them getting best ratio's and accumulating like mad.....i'm confident someone out there will top 20 inches....prolly near 1500' or so ....wouldn't be shocked to see 25 inches out there in lollies.

further east i think the ORH area may get dryslotted or see a period of sparse radar returns while the death band is going in berks ...while seeing their own death "band" as well....i think the air will be a few degrees warmer in elevated ORH county (1k) and this area will see IMO 10-14 inches (lollies 16)

i think some areas near the KGAY thru wrenthem area may also see a sick band later in the system and have a nice shot at 7-12 (i would rate this as lowest confidence)

To the west of that band i see totals 4-8 and ramping quickly up as you get to the ORH "ridge line" of 800-900 '. and to the east of the above band i think a general 3-6 will fall including boston area down thru easton. further SE i think 2-4 for SE mass.

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heights clearly shunted SE ahead of the storm.. should definitely be colder than 18z but I don't want to get slammed for modelcasting

I'm too tired to look closely. I appreciate your input, it's actually..and surprisingly notably different than the 12z. Don't often see the GFS make these types of shifts at 6 hours on such a short range.

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