ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA701 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011.SYNOPSIS...AN EARLY SEASON MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING DAMAGING HEAVY WETSNOW TO THE INTERIOR...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS/COASTAL FLOODINGALONG THE COAST LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROMSUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERSLATE NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 11:33 PM, ORH_wxman said: ACKwaves might look to his southwest and see a mushroom cloud over the water as that vortmax hits the bath water. nice nuke: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 11:26 PM, CoastalWx said: Phil may need to get his oxygen mask with this..lol. The 1.5PVU surface to 600mb. Hard to tell, but you can see the dip in red. Those ensembles seem awfully far west for those reasons you/we stated earlier. If Hurricane Josh whats to see a storm with an eye, he might want to try ACY tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 11:30 PM, Wx4cast said: That is sick and sweet at the same time! Hi Andy!! How's the arm feeling? No shovelling for you. I'm feeling pretty good about a respectable thump here. What say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 11:22 PM, CT Blizz said: The thing is..I do think you get good snow up there..even with the Euro track. The eastern folks are worried simply because of the GFS adding confusion to an otherwise unified front of models. It's like an Allied front against one rebel country I guess the other thing to keep in mind was that the Ukie, was more in the Euro camp as well. So despite the NAM shifting a bit at 18z toward the GFS (it is the 18z nam after all which we usually toss), we should be somewhat confident pending a big change with the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 DT's call a GFS-leaning compromise, though looks maybe too warm in northern CT to Worcester area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 11:32 PM, Organizing Low said: storms dont like to cut over snowpack, they'll sense the water oh wait for the record i'm leaning towards the euro/NAM blend. FYI, some of us do have a snowpack.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this dual low center at 850 mb looks odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 11:26 PM, CoastalWx said: Phil may need to get his oxygen mask with this..lol. The 1.5PVU surface to 600mb. Hard to tell, but you can see the dip in red. Those ensembles seem awfully far west for those reasons you/we stated earlier. Nice...was looking at that earlier today on the 12z runs. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Snowing by noontimeish? Looks that way. Damage by 4:00-5:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 11:46 PM, ski MRG said: FYI, some of us do have a snowpack.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 11:21 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think the thermal gradient will be obscenely packed in the SE...like Tip mentioned earlier. The lower res models won't handle that quite as well. I'm trying to keep up but busy with kids/working so missing a lot of pages. Makes sense, we're talking probably ten degrees in 3-4 miles with the cold side a blizzard. Right now it looks like it sets up between Rte 24 and I95. The climatological battleground is usually about Rte 138 to Rte 24, but that's later in the year so who knows? I expect we'll see some serious model shuffling tonight/resolution to the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frisbetarian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You guys are awesome, and I love the updates, but the big story here (it's October and we can't ski on this sludge) is 13' semi-clean NE swell @ 9 seconds with still pretty warm Atlantic water and 27 MPH NW winds. Screw the snow, see you at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Ok so we wait, nowcast for me as I sit on the fence. Jerry has me 2-4 but I am thinking Wills reasoning wins out. Gut feeling after looking at everything from MM5 to Andy's Tandy, go big or go home. Ski Peter 15-20, QPF MPM 14-16 Wiz Ryan 10-14 Blizz 14. Will 16-20 Hunchie 18-22 Scooter 4-8 Jerry 4-8. Ray 12-16 Dom 14-16 Sammy Weiner 14-18 Modfan8-14 Nutmeg 4-8 Me Miser 6-12 Coastal RI 3-6 Taunton Bob 3-6 Mesenger 2-4 Phil 1-3 LltLib 6-10 Weather X 6-10 NwCt 14-18 It's fookin Oct, INSANITY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Ginx...4-8 for me with wind after lots of rain? I'll sign for that right now! Thanks for the forecast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:05 AM, Ginx said: Ok so we wait, nowcast for me as I sit on the fence. Jerry has me 2-4 but I am thinking Wills reasoning wins out. Gut feeling after looking at everything from MM5 to Andy's Tandy, go big or go home. Ski Peter 15-20, QPF MPM 14-16 Wiz Ryan 10-14 Blizz 14. Will 16-20 Hunchie 18-22 Scooter 4-8 Jerry 4-8. Ray 12-16 Dom 14-16 Sammy Weiner 14-18 Modfan8-14 Nutmeg 4-8 Me Miser 6-12 Coastal RI 3-6 Taunton Bob 3-6 Mesenger 2-4 Phil 1-3 LltLib 6-10 Weather X 6-10 NwCt 14-18 It's fookin Oct, INSANITY Your area to the NW RI hills might have premature suicides where its not snowing well or mixing and the best banding is to the NW still, but then I think those areas will absolutely rip in the 2nd half of the storm. They should do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:02 AM, Frisbetarian said: You guys are awesome, and I love the updates, but the big story here (it's October and we can't ski on this sludge) is 13' semi-clean NE swell @ 9 seconds with still pretty warm Atlantic water and 27 MPH NW winds. Screw the snow, see you at the beach. I like you, where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:07 AM, Ginx said: I like you, where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:02 AM, Frisbetarian said: You guys are awesome, and I love the updates, but the big story here (it's October and we can't ski on this sludge) is 13' semi-clean NE swell @ 9 seconds with still pretty warm Atlantic water and 27 MPH NW winds. Screw the snow, see you at the beach. Enjoy the waves! See ya on the slopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 18z NAM dry slots ORH for a time. Really dries out above 600mb...loses the good snowgrowth for about 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 looking at the satellite loop it looks like rita is going to get alot of her moisture in this!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:05 AM, Ginx said: Ok so we wait, nowcast for me as I sit on the fence. Jerry has me 2-4 but I am thinking Wills reasoning wins out. Gut feeling after looking at everything from MM5 to Andy's Tandy, go big or go home. Ski Peter 15-20, QPF MPM 14-16 Wiz Ryan 10-14 Blizz 14. Will 16-20 Hunchie 18-22 Scooter 4-8 Jerry 4-8. Ray 12-16 Dom 14-16 Sammy Weiner 14-18 Modfan8-14 Nutmeg 4-8 Me Miser 6-12 Coastal RI 3-6 Taunton Bob 3-6 Mesenger 2-4 Phil 1-3 LltLib 6-10 Weather X 6-10 NwCt 14-18 It's fookin Oct, INSANITY Crack 5-10" mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:05 AM, Ginx said: Ok so we wait, nowcast for me as I sit on the fence. Jerry has me 2-4 but I am thinking Wills reasoning wins out. Gut feeling after looking at everything from MM5 to Andy's Tandy, go big or go home. Ski Peter 15-20, QPF MPM 14-16 Wiz Ryan 10-14 Blizz 14. Will 16-20 Hunchie 18-22 Scooter 4-8 Jerry 4-8. Ray 12-16 Dom 14-16 Sammy Weiner 14-18 Modfan8-14 Nutmeg 4-8 Me Miser 6-12 Coastal RI 3-6 Taunton Bob 3-6 Mesenger 2-4 Phil 1-3 LltLib 6-10 Weather X 6-10 NwCt 14-18 It's fookin Oct, INSANITY Lol Steve. I admire your enthusiasm, but no way does Ullr allow me to have more than Petey Higher numbers might be better for the trees? More fluff less cement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:07 AM, ORH_wxman said: Your area to the NW RI hills might have premature suicides where its not snowing well or mixing and the best banding is to the NW still, but then I think those areas will absolutely rip in the 2nd half of the storm. They should do fine. Any chance you issue updated numbers Kook er um Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:07 AM, ORH_wxman said: Your area to the NW RI hills might have premature suicides where its not snowing well or mixing and the best banding is to the NW still, but then I think those areas will absolutely rip in the 2nd half of the storm. They should do fine. Yea that's what I think, has that Dec 05 appeal to me, probably IP from hell too for a while. That's why Nutmeg I said that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frisbetarian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:07 AM, Ginx said: I like you, where do you live? Lynnfield. but I'll be in Gloucester Sunday. Good Harbor Beach should be cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:11 AM, Ginx said: Yea that's what I think, has that Dec 05 appeal to me, probably IP from hell too for a while. That's why Nutmeg I said that for you. Your tower will see some good gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:08 AM, sbos_wx said: Uh I like his attitude, gonna be tough surfing in 60 KTS winds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Crack 5-10" mby I probably flip before you do so I'm going 6-12"...seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On 10/29/2011 at 12:11 AM, Ginx said: Yea that's what I think, has that Dec 05 appeal to me, probably IP from hell too for a while. That's why Nutmeg I said that for you. Makes sense. Supposed to go to a pig roast at 5 pm but I may hang at home because of the wind. Lots of trees around my house and I won't be lucky two times in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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