Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For the overnight model runs. Keep it up gang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GEFS has led the way for NCEP guidance westward. The 18z GEFS...is it an indication that the 0z NCEP guidance is going warmer/west? Maybe. Euro has held fast. But climatology has to put up its hand at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I love how everyone thinks the GFS is right and every other model including the Euro is wrong. LOL. Take the Euro and lock it folks. Think colder solutions . GFS vs the world. Dance with the devil if you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I love how everyone thinks the GFS is right and every other model including the Euro is wrong. LOL. Take the Euro and lock it folks. Think colder solutions . GFS vs the world. Dance with the devil if you want sounds like you're whistling past the graveyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 sounds like you're whistling past the graveyard. I'm in the jackpot zone with you..I'm just talking about the eastern folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GEFS has led the way for NCEP guidance westward. The 18z GEFS...is it an indication that the 0z NCEP guidance is going warmer/west? Maybe. Euro has held fast. But climatology has to put up its hand at some point. 18z gefs must have some really warn and west models.I think back this way we are ok with mid level warmth the issue is how much previp we waste with a warm boundary layer at first and where best mesoscale banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I love how everyone thinks the GFS is right and every other model including the Euro is wrong. LOL. Take the Euro and lock it folks. Think colder solutions . GFS vs the world. Dance with the devil if you want Yea, I dont know why people are caving to the GFS, as if its a done deal... The Euro has been pretty steady on this storm for quite some time, and with corroboration from the NAM, I dont see any reason other than guesses to expect the GFS has made what will prove to be the right call.. Its a hair early for that, i would say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ok I've been out since 3pm. I assume were still in good shape in W. Ma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm in the jackpot zone with you..I'm just talking about the eastern folks Kev, are the Euro/GFS really all that different when resolution differences are muted? IE, the differences can be accounted for by the Euro's superior resolution. That said, I don't like that the GEFS is wandering west still. 18z gefs must have some really warn and west models.I think back this way we are ok with mid level warmth the issue is how much previp we waste with a warm boundary layer at first and where best mesoscale banding sets up. Yep...a couple have to be out by buffalo Not really worried either way until the 0z. I think this is the model run that will determine to what extent history is made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS ens are probably having a hard time seeing the hole that is being ripped in the atmosphere SE of New England...so they want to try and ride the sfc low up the trough further more without seeing the height falls to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This time tomorrow nite we should start seeing the mesonet stations dropping off of Paul's website..just like the icestorm..This time it'll be all over SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I love how everyone thinks the GFS is right and every other model including the Euro is wrong. LOL. Take the Euro and lock it folks. Think colder solutions . GFS vs the world. Dance with the devil if you want Yeah I'd like to agree. We saw these battles in several SECS 2010-2011, and ultimately there were occasions when the GFS proved Euro is not always king within 48 hrs (yes Euro did match the GEFS several days ago), and EE rule is not always a lock within 48 hours . . . . Here's to hoping 0Z suite swings back colder to seal history for central / eastern SNE !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS ens are probably having a hard time seeing the hole that is being ripped in the atmosphere SE of New England...so they want to try and ride the sfc low up the trough further more without seeing the height falls to the east. The resolution just isn't there on the GFS like it is on the Euro and NAM. Folks need to understand these things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ryan. Presuming the shift west stops where it is shown on the most recent models, do winds become a bigger concern than earlier thought? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This time tomorrow nite we should start seeing the mesonet stations dropping off of Paul's website..just like the icestorm..This time it'll be all over SNE The wild card is the valleys... It depends how quickly things cool off near sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I love how everyone thinks the GFS is right and every other model including the Euro is wrong. LOL. Take the Euro and lock it folks. Think colder solutions . GFS vs the world. Dance with the devil if you want No NNE love? haha. You're getting a lot of snow either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS ens are probably having a hard time seeing the hole that is being ripped in the atmosphere SE of New England...so they want to try and ride the sfc low up the trough further more without seeing the height falls to the east. And one would think that in this dynamic a situation even the Euro may be underplaying that and as a result...could still see a colder nudge. But who knows? Euro looks sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 And one would think that in this dynamic a situation even the Euro may be underplaying that and as a result...could still see a colder nudge. But who knows? Euro looks sick. Yeah I think the thermal gradient will be obscenely packed in the SE...like Tip mentioned earlier. The lower res models won't handle that quite as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No NNE love? haha. You're getting a lot of snow either way. The thing is..I do think you get good snow up there..even with the Euro track. The eastern folks are worried simply because of the GFS adding confusion to an otherwise unified front of models. It's like an Allied front against one rebel country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah I think the thermal gradient will be obscenely packed in the SE...like Tip mentioned earlier. The lower res models won't handle that quite as well. Wouldn't that argue for a stronger system? Tight baroclinic zone right on the coastline between the water and just inland... And don't stronger, explosive lows have a better shot at going a bit west than east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The thing is..I do think you get good snow up there..even with the Euro track. The eastern folks are worried simply because of the GFS adding confusion to an otherwise unified front of models. It's like an Allied front against one rebel country Haha I'm just messing around. We all hear and see what we want to see. Without even seeing the 00z runs I bet us NNE folks will think it looks a bit west and SE MA folks will argue east. Its all in the eye of the beholder. I just know that when a low is modeled to go up the coastal plain, everyone says no, it will ride the thermal gradient right on the coast and there's no way it comes inland. I don't know why now it wouldn't also ride that thermal boundary which will literally be right on the coastline, not out near the Benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah I think the thermal gradient will be obscenely packed in the SE...like Tip mentioned earlier. The lower res models won't handle that quite as well. Phil may need to get his oxygen mask with this..lol. The 1.5PVU surface to 600mb. Hard to tell, but you can see the dip in red. Those ensembles seem awfully far west for those reasons you/we stated earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 btw when I was downtown with the baby earlier I was talking to one of the Greenfield PD Sargents and he had just gotten a text from MEMA saying things could be worse than first thought. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Look at the 850's. That stuff is going to come down with the heavy precip. The wild card is the valleys... It depends how quickly things cool off near sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wouldn't that argue for a stronger system? Tight baroclinic zone right on the coastline between the water and just inland... And don't stronger, explosive lows have a better shot at going a bit west than east? Yes it would argue for a stronger system, but it wouldn't mean the 0C line gets shoved inland like some of those runs show...it will be really tightly packed thermal gradient. On the GEFS it is more diffuse. A stronger system may wobble west but it will also be more compact as everything gets sucked toward the center of the bombing low. We sort of saw this in Jan 12, 2011 system as even though the storm tracked over the Cape Cod canal, it kept BOS all snow...everything was so compact with the bombing nature of the storm...it will probably start off with the larger precip shield but then it could actually shrink in coverage but increase in intensity as the storm nukes out...we'll just have to wait and see what the hi res 00z run show...but that is typically what you see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Rain changing quickly to heavy heavy snow here it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Phil may need to get his oxygen mask with this..lol. The 1.5PVU surface to 600mb. Hard to tell, but you can see the dip in red. Those ensembles seem awfully far west for those reasons you/we stated earlier. That is sick and sweet at the same time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yes it would argue for a stronger system, but it wouldn't mean the 0C line gets shoved inland like some of those runs show...it will be really tightly packed thermal gradient. On the GEFS it is more diffuse. A stronger system may wobble west but it will also be more compact as everything gets sucked toward the center of the bombing low. We sort of saw this in Jan 12, 2011 system as even though the storm tracked over the Cape Cod canal, it kept BOS all snow...everything was so compact with the bombing nature of the storm...it will probably start off with the larger precip shield but then it could actually shrink in coverage but increase in intensity as the storm nukes out...we'll just have to wait and see what the hi res 00z run show...but that is typically what you see. Yeah that makes sense... I've just been thinking more in terms of track only and not so much the 0C line (which there's no way it makes it to ORH in that set-up). Figure out the track and you can sort of figure out the other details without even looking at the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wouldn't that argue for a stronger system? Tight baroclinic zone right on the coastline between the water and just inland... And don't stronger, explosive lows have a better shot at going a bit west than east? storms dont like to cut over snowpack, they'll sense the water oh wait for the record i'm leaning towards the euro/NAM blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ACKwaves might look to his southwest and see a mushroom cloud over the water as that vortmax hits the bath water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.