north pgh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think you are correct on the 2-4 but I don't believe the lake effect will be no more than an inch on Friday as winds will be more westerly than northwest. Even with the blowing it will be hard to measure anyway. It does look like a good 12 hours of snow and wind so Friday morning commute might be a problem. I think NWS Pit needs to come out with at least an advisory for 2-4 and blowing snow. Should be interesting. I still want to see lightning or hear some thunder when the rain/snow moves in. Anyone know timing on the snow starting? I have to be out tomorrow night but should be in by 8 or 9. I hope it starts after. GFS gets us close to .5 QPF total precip...and usually lake effect can be underdone. Looking at a quick 2-4 thump I think, then another 2-4 with lake effect? I mean, the snow ratios, I imagine, are going to be pretty high once we get into the lake effect portion of the event. Time for a WSW I think, and if you have to downgrade to an advisory if they have to, but given the fact that you could be looking at a blizzard like conditions for a period, you need to get the word out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 WOW!!! Someone check me on it, but I think that is snow, for the most part...going to get blitzed pretty hard. Someone can check me on this as well, but I think around half of that is going to be snow. I looked at the GFS at hour 27 and that appears to be when the cold air is just coming through. But, if you look at the GFS at hour 33, that looks pretty impressive too. The GFS at hour 33 for the previous 6 hours before that would be all snow. Definitely something to keep an eye on at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think you are correct on the 2-4 but I don't believe the lake effect will be no more than an inch on Friday as winds will be more westerly than northwest. Even with the blowing it will be hard to measure anyway. It does look like a good 12 hours of snow and wind so Friday morning commute might be a problem. I think NWS Pit needs to come out with at least an advisory for 2-4 and blowing snow. Should be interesting. I still want to see lightning or hear some thunder when the rain/snow moves in. Anyone know timing on the snow starting? I have to be out tomorrow night but should be in by 8 or 9. I hope it starts after. I put in for 4 hours of sick time tomorrow night just in case I need to leave early. I don't want to get stuck out in the initial thump and freeze, because that is going to be pretty intense...I work till 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Someone can check me on this as well, but I think around half of that is going to be snow. I looked at the GFS at hour 27 and that appears to be when the cold air is just coming through. But, if you look at the GFS at hour 33, that looks pretty impressive too. The GFS at hour 33 for the previous 6 hours before that would be all snow. Definitely something to keep an eye on at the very least. The good thing is that most of that is coming in at about hour 30...that's when temps crash, and the cold air comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 I do hope that NWS comes out with an advisory at least for tomorrow night and Friday. I was having a discussion with my sister late this afternoon. Her and a bunch of friends are going out to the movies tomorrow night and when I told her to be careful and that it may be bad later she said "well there only calling for snowshowers and an inch overnight and we won't be out too late" I would hate to see her come out of the movie sometime to a whiteout which is possible. Plus they have "breezy" with winds 22-32 mph. Some models have wind gusts 40-50 mph after the initial burst comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I do hope that NWS comes out with an advisory at least for tomorrow night and Friday. I was having a discussion with my sister late this afternoon. Her and a bunch of friends are going out to the movies tomorrow night and when I told her to be careful and that it may be bad later she said "well there only calling for snowshowers and an inch overnight and we won't be out too late" I would hate to see her come out of the movie sometime to a whiteout which is possible. Plus they have "breezy" with winds 22-32 mph. Some models have wind gusts 40-50 mph after the initial burst comes in. It's what happened last year in February...NWS calling for 1-2 the morning of, despite the models showing 4-7 inches in a 6 hour time frame. Didn't put up an advisory to noon, started snowing around 2, and we got blasted and literally 1000's of people were stuck in one of the most horrific rush hours I can remember around here with inch per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 NAM showing around 2 inches for the storm. GFS has 3.0 to 4.5 inches thus far. There is your 2-4. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Well you snow fans may get a nice little event by Friday morning. There is still some differences between the Nam, GFS, Euro...but I've seen this situation before and it usually does well locally. I'm thinking a synoptic accumulating snow event starting around 3-6Z....lasting through 09-15Z...a general 2-3 inches for the Pittsburgh Metro...and then additional snow showers in the northwest flow. You all can have it; but I hope it makes you happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It's what happened last year in February...NWS calling for 1-2 the morning of, despite the models showing 4-7 inches in a 6 hour time frame. Didn't put up an advisory to noon, started snowing around 2, and we got blasted and literally 1000's of people were stuck in one of the most horrific rush hours I can remember around here with inch per hour rates. I know I barely made it home that evening. On my way home, I started having flashbacks of the 2010 storm when I got stuck and couldn't get home that night. I couldn't get back to my truck for 2 days, and when I did, I had a lot of digging to do! At least last year, I made it home just before it really got bad out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I do hope that NWS comes out with an advisory at least for tomorrow night and Friday. I was having a discussion with my sister late this afternoon. Her and a bunch of friends are going out to the movies tomorrow night and when I told her to be careful and that it may be bad later she said "well there only calling for snowshowers and an inch overnight and we won't be out too late" I would hate to see her come out of the movie sometime to a whiteout which is possible. Plus they have "breezy" with winds 22-32 mph. Some models have wind gusts 40-50 mph after the initial burst comes in. I used to be the marketing communications manager for AccuWx, and one of the hardest things to get the general public to understand is 1" of snow does not equal no problem. No matter how many terrible accidents, snarled traffic, etc during one of these events, memory doesn't sink in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Tonight: Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after midnight. Low around 20. Breezy, with a southwest wind 9 to 12 mph increasing to between 18 and 21 mph. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday: Snow showers, mainly before 2pm. High near 25. Breezy, with a west wind between 22 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 12z NAM and GFS still look good. NAM seems to have the best precip rates a little further West than the GFS does. 12z GFS really is dead hit for SWPA and seems to be a hair wetter as well. Definitly looks like a solid 2-4 inch event over a 12 hour period with most of the snow falling in a 3-4 hour period. LES looks to be minimal as we don't have a good fetch off the lakes but it should still be enough to keep periodic snow showers and the ocassional heavier squal a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not to be critical of NWS Pit but I believe they need to put out a wwa. Areas are now under advisory for southern Ohio, Northern WV and Northwest Kentucky. They are calling for 2-4 inches thru tomorrow with high winds. We will be getting the same weather, maybe stronger based on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It's what happened last year in February...NWS calling for 1-2 the morning of, despite the models showing 4-7 inches in a 6 hour time frame. Didn't put up an advisory to noon, started snowing around 2, and we got blasted and literally 1000's of people were stuck in one of the most horrific rush hours I can remember around here with inch per hour rates. I don't remember the forecast being quite that little....I think it was a 3" to 5" advisory forecast, then we got blasted with 8" in 6 hours. I think it was the warnings that came up late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I actually remember the morning of the event there were no advisories up. I don't remember the forecast being quite that little....I think it was a 3" to 5" advisory forecast, then we got blasted with 8" in 6 hours. I think it was the warnings that came up late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm going to Pitt tomorrow...finally should see some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I actually remember the morning of the event there were no advisories up. Maybe your right....I think it was a rain to snow situation and the bust was the cold air being there sooner. That is how it busted badly for accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like the decided to go with an Advisory. Good call given the sudden change of conditions that could have surpirsed a lot of people. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 124 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012 MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-130230- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0002.120113T0200Z-120113T2300Z/ GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON- JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER- VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER- ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND- WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO- MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE... NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON... EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE... WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE... STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY... ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...SHADYSIDE... BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...SHARON...HERMITAGE... GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN... SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER... ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE... REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING... FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA... WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI... MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG... NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...LIGONIER... DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON... OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING... MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN... KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 124 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE. * TIMING...LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY * IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ICING OVER ROADS FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING AND NEARLY STEADY FRIDAY. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING... ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633- 6772. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like tomorrow morning is going to be an interesting rush hour. Digger is somewhere getting ready and hating our guts for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I know its the 18z NAM but sure look pertty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunnykay Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You guys that are better at reading models than I am, can you give me an idea of start/end times for this, please? I have to drive to State College for a meeting and I need to go either this evening ahead of this (but as late as possible due to work) or tomorrow after it (hopefully) winds down. Would like to go tonight, but at this point am not sure how soon I can leave. :-( Thanks in advance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You guys that are better at reading models than I am, can you give me an idea of start/end times for this, please? I have to drive to State College for a meeting and I need to go either this evening ahead of this (but as late as possible due to work) or tomorrow after it (hopefully) winds down. Would like to go tonight, but at this point am not sure how soon I can leave. :-( Thanks in advance.... Between 11pm and Midnight tonight is when the change over is likley to start happening. As you travel east this will of course be delayed some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yikes at the 18z nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 .6 QPF on the NAM, but I think some of that is falling as rain early in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm glad they finally upped to an advisory. I heard a lot of people today saying that they heard that we were getting some snow tonight but they didn't believe it would be bad. They believe that because the winter thus far has been so mild that it won't happen. I am planning on staying up a little past midnight tonight so I hope I get a chance to see when the snow starts. I believe with the winds that there may be a period of white-out conditions at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Digger is somewhere getting ready and hating our guts for this. No, actually I'm pretty relaxed about it, relatively speaking. We thought long and hard about it, and back in early October called all the plowing customers and told them they'd need to find somebody else. It can snow an inch, or a foot, and all I have to do is sit and watch it pile up on the lawn. I can sit here and play on the internet, and I'm as ready as I need to be. (Of course, my wife still has her lengthy commute, and she'll be out in it at 0-dark-thirty tomorrow morning, which still gives me reason enough to hate it, but if she gets stuck, now at least I can go rescue her. And it's no fun walking around in it all day on the jobsite, but hey, I'd have to do that anyway.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 I see a bunch of lightning strikes in southern Ohio right now. I still think there is a good chance someone sees or hears some lightning and thunder tonight when the heaviest of precip moves in. I think you have a better chance south or east of the city. Something more to watch for though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Best of luck to ya guys! Would be nice to get some thundersnow also. Lets hope this puppy is an overachiever as it digs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Thanks, We'll send it your way. Currently here it is 42.8 degrees. Looking at radar the first batch of rain is about an hour or so away. I see lightning strikes on the the lightning radar just south of the WV panhandle. Hope to see some here. Maybe our Bethel Park crew will get some. They should be first. Best of luck to ya guys! Would be nice to get some thundersnow also. Lets hope this puppy is an overachiever as it digs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Winds realllllly picked up out there!...huge gusts and large rain drops...come on thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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