lwg8tr0514 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hey peeps back for another Winter and looks ilike an interestng start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 000 SXUS71 KPBZ 252113 RERPIT RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 0512 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PITTSBURGH PA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT PITTSBURGH PA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 80 SET IN 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just saw Jeff Vs Winter Forecast. Summary: Winter starts slow then picks up as we move through January and February. December is about average on snow and temps, January is below average on temps and above average on snow, February is below average temps and above average snow, March is above average temps and below average snow. No bad overall if you are a snow lover. On a side note, he seemed to downplay Sandy, saying just some rain showers and cold temperatures with maybe some snow flakes Monday night. It is pretty far out still so I can't say I totally blaim him at this point, but if the Euro verifies the impacts are going to be more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I cannot stand that our locals downplay everything. Just about every model gives us some fairly significant impact, whether rain, wind, or snow. Just saw Jeff Vs Winter Forecast. Summary: Winter starts slow then picks up as we move through January and February. December is about average on snow and temps, January is below average on temps and above average on snow, February is below average temps and above average snow, March is above average temps and below average snow. No bad overall if you are a snow lover. On a side note, he seemed to downplay Sandy, saying just some rain showers and cold temperatures with maybe some snow flakes Monday night. It is pretty far out still so I can't say I totally blaim him at this point, but if the Euro verifies the impacts are going to be more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z gfs is a massive impact event in our area, one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wow... you are right the 18z is really nasty looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 check out the potential winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Channel 4 guy really played UP Sandy....sayin possibly accumulating snow...Jeff is notorious for his downplaying events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just saw Jeff Vs Winter Forecast. Summary: Winter starts slow then picks up as we move through January and February. December is about average on snow and temps, January is below average on temps and above average on snow, February is below average temps and above average snow, March is above average temps and below average snow. No bad overall if you are a snow lover. On a side note, he seemed to downplay Sandy, saying just some rain showers and cold temperatures with maybe some snow flakes Monday night. It is pretty far out still so I can't say I totally blaim him at this point, but if the Euro verifies the impacts are going to be more significant. His GFS hugging ass must have crapped when he saw the 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 check out the potential winds I think i saw that you take 20% off of those winds tomextrapolate down to the surface, so at points we could be looking at sustained 40-50 knot winds, with I'd imagine gusts to near hurricane force? Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 His GFS hugging ass must have crapped when he saw the 18Z Lolololololololololol!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Channel 4 guy really played UP Sandy....sayin possibly accumulating snow...Jeff is notorious for his downplaying events Jeff V, would call a Cat 5 hurricane, a little wind with light showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hahahaha you're right on the Jeff V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think his call for the feb blizzard in 09 was 2-4" a day and a half out and maybe upped to 3-6 the night before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 His ass is drawn up so tight, you couldn't drive a toothpick through it with a sledgehammer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Fascinating stuff. Good discussion from "Fries" below. Seem to remember him (her) being pretty thorough last year too.... Anybody catch any 12Z Euro fantasy maps? Didn't see any, and wondering if it still was advertising the extreme snow scenario. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C. AT THE SAME TIME...SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS PROGRESSIVELY MORE AND MORE TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. AS SUCH...POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE UPPER JET STREAK RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN PARKED IN PLACE SMACK OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER...WITH COLDER PROFILES IN PLACE...AND INDICATIONS FROM SEVERAL MODELS OF NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILES BELOW ROUGHLY 800-700 MB...P-TYPE LOOKS TO BECOME MORE AND MORE OF A CONCERN BY THE HOUR. THE UNFORTUNATE PART SEEMS TO BE THAT THIS SORT OF THERMAL PROFILE CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK OVER OUR REGION. CONSENSUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUN IN THE -2 TO -5C RANGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OFF THE WEEK EVEN AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY COME INTO PLAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEREIN LIES THE MASSIVE QUANDARY OF THE EXTENDED. WHILE THE REMNANTS OF SANDY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK...THE INTERACTIONS OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND OFF SHORE ANTI-CYCLONE BECOME QUITE IMPORTANT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHE TRANSLATES INTO THE NO-MANS-LAND BETWEEN THEM. FAVORING MOVEMENT INTO THE WEAKNESSES IN THE 850 MB PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MOVEMENT OF SANDY TOWARD NEW JERSEY THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO OR DIRECTLY EASTWARD OUT TO SEA. THIS BIMODAL SOLUTION SET CONTINUES TO STYMIE EFFORTS AT A DETERMINISTIC FORECAST...HOWEVER IT NOW SEEMS A GROWING PERCENTAGE OF THE SOLUTIONS FAVOR AN ON SHORE AND INTO NEW YORK SOLUTION. THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR THIS TYPE OF MOVEMENT AS WELL AS SOME SORT OF INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL OVER THE WESTERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS TRAJECTORY KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA BASICALLY IN THE COLD AIR THROUGH THE WEEK AND DUE TO IMPRESSIVE OMEGA IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS...ISOTHERMAL THERMAL PROFILES BELOW 800 MB SEEM QUITE PLAUSIBLE. AS SUCH...POPS WERE INCREASED MARKEDLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND GIVEN FAIRLY COLD THERMAL PROFILES...A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FAVORED IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES...PARTICULARLY FARTHER AWAY FROM POTENTIAL WARMING THAT MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL BE TOO DEEP OVER THAT AREA. A LOT OF QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN AS TO P-TYPE...SO TALK OF ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS VERY PREMATURE. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE RIDGES SEEMS TO BE INCREASING DUE TO THE FAVORED TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF SANDY KEEPING THEM DEEPER IN THE COLD AIR. ADDITIONALLY...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THE END OF THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC LIFT MAY YIELD OROGRAPHIC AND/OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK OVER THE RIDGES. AWAY FROM THE RIDGES AND IN AREAS INCLUDING PITTSBURGH...SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT WHATEVER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE WE HAVE IS LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR A PERIOD EACH DAY AT LEAST. AS SUCH...WHILE POSSIBLE...LOWLAND ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT EVEN IF P-TYPE DOES EVENTUALLY FAVOR SNOW. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Fascinating stuff. Good discussion from "Fries" below. Seem to remember him (her) being pretty thorough last year too.... Anybody catch any 12Z Euro fantasy maps? Didn't see any, and wondering if it still was advertising the extreme snow scenario. The 12z European actually angled in too far south to deliver a major snow threat to the Pittsburgh area, and actually it's probably confined to the very highest southwestern Laurel high elevations if that since the cold conveyor belt drops west and south of pa. They were probably considering at the time the 12z suite of the GFS/GEFS, CMC, the HPC plots etc in the AFD. The euro was well sw of some of those solutions. Since then the 18z GFS has come way toward the euro pile driving a low into NJ and stalling/killing it over the DC/Balt area. That solution is similar to the euro in that the cold conveyor belt loops its way around PA and the warmth associated with Sandy just overwhelms as it is still in the process of becoming extratropical. 18z GFS ensemble plumes still show a good deal of blue in there for PIT. Lot's of spread amongst members. The real show looks to be down I-79 in WVA attm. Still a few of days to go before we can start to hammer down finer details but regardless of whatever ends up being the impact, it looks to be major attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mag, if you don't mind me asking, with an 18z GFS/12z Euro solution, what is the wind potential in SWPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mag, if you don't mind me asking, with an 18z GFS/12z Euro solution, what is the wind potential in SWPA? 850mb winds are bonkers on both models, solidly over 75 knots at the height. Couldn't find GFS wind gust product, but the Euro's had 45-55knots at 10m. The guys on the radio show earlier made some good points about the potential winds. With a storm like Irene, which was a weakening tropical system.. winds weren't tremendously strong on the west side of the storm once you were away from the immediate coast.. which is usually the case inland in normal landfalling tropical systems. It's typically hard to tap down very high winds aloft since it's generally stable. Since Sandy is in the process of merging with the trough diving down and becoming extratropical, the cooling aloft will allow for mixing and the higher winds to get tapped. Generally if those solutions pan out I would say possibly 30-40mph with some gusts to 50-60 for pit. Probably higher than that in the Laurels. Def a windy scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 12z European actually angled in too far south to deliver a major snow threat to the Pittsburgh area, and actually it's probably confined to the very highest southwestern Laurel high elevations if that since the cold conveyor belt drops west and south of pa. They were probably considering at the time the 12z suite of the GFS/GEFS, CMC, the HPC plots etc in the AFD. The euro was well sw of some of those solutions. Since then the 18z GFS has come way toward the euro pile driving a low into NJ and stalling/killing it over the DC/Balt area. That solution is similar to the euro in that the cold conveyor belt loops its way around PA and the warmth associated with Sandy just overwhelms as it is still in the process of becoming extratropical. 18z GFS ensemble plumes still show a good deal of blue in there for PIT. Lot's of spread amongst members. The real show looks to be down I-79 in WVA attm. Still a few of days to go before we can start to hammer down finer details but regardless of whatever ends up being the impact, it looks to be major attm. Thanks - yeah except for the fact that it wasn't tropical, this looks as close to Nov 1950 as I've seen. And it looks similar in that there is a warm conveyor to the north, with cold air wrapped in to the south. That storm of course had single digit temps and southerly winds.....but similar in that colder air looks to be wrapping in to south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Thanks - yeah except for the fact that it wasn't tropical, this looks as close to Nov 1950 as I've seen. And it looks similar in that there is a warm conveyor to the north, with cold air wrapped in to the south. That storm of course had single digit temps and southerly winds.....but similar in that colder air looks to be wrapping in to south I would love to get a storm like the Nov. 1950 storm. My mother tells me stories about it and to watch the storm move east to west over the area and the continuous snows would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 6z GFS looks interesting , I do wonder if we have all this QPF and borderline temps all that juice is wasted as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hurricane Ivan gave us what, 5, 5 1/2 inches of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hurricane Ivan gave us what, 5, 5 1/2 inches of rain? Ivan gave us 5.95" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ivan gave us 5.95" of rain There were some areas that got even more than that too. I can remember having to drive through downtown Pittsburgh the very next day and seeing Point State Park completely covered in water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ivan gave us 5.95" of rain Thanks. I knew it was in that neighborhood. I've probably mentioned before, for Ivan, we had a truck at a service station in Carnegie, and the water was about a foot above the steering wheel. It was written off. Seeing that HPC graphic doesn't give me a good feeling. Maybe we'd be better off with about 3" of rain and then a foot of snow.... On edit: Just looked at the latest version, and it's showing a little less for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The 00z NAM would be an absolute disaster for the area. Through hour 84 it gives us 3 inches of QPF and it is still precipitating. Most of that QPF I believe is in a 12 hour period. Also, it would be a forecast disaster as the 0z line goes basically over the city, and with the rate of precipitation, there probably would be snow mixing in, and south of the city probably changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 And the GFS takes the low to Erie...I don't know what sfc temps are, but looking at it, it would be the most epic blizzard we have ever experienced.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Thanks. I knew it was in that neighborhood. I've probably mentioned before, for Ivan, we had a truck at a service station in Carnegie, and the water was about a foot above the steering wheel. It was written off. Seeing that HPC graphic doesn't give me a good feeling. Maybe we'd be better off with about 3" of rain and then a foot of snow.... On edit: Just looked at the latest version, and it's showing a little less for us. What really sent Ivan's flooding over the top was it being preceded by the remnants of hurricane Frances delivering similar amounts less than a week prior. Fortunately we haven't been all that wet up to this point lately, but still.. that much rain around here would deliver big problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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