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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather


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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

811 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...HOT AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO

VALLEY...

.AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY COMBINED WITH EXPECTED

HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON

MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WHAT FEELS LIKE A MUCH HOTTER DAY. HEAT INDEX

VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...THE NORTHERN

PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA AND EAST-CENTRAL OHIO WILL REACH OR

EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007-013-014-020-021-

WVZ001>004-012-172015-

/O.CON.KPBZ.HT.Y.0010.120717T1600Z-120718T0100Z/

TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-

MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-

BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...

UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...

EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...

HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...

MARTINS FERRY...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...

SHADYSIDE...BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...SHARON...

HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...NEW CASTLE...

ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...

AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WEIRTON...

BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE

811 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT

THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...THE NORTHERN

PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND EAST-CENTRAL OHIO.

* HAZARDS...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 104.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ELDERLY AND YOUNG CHILDREN ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE

TO THE EFFECTS OF THE HEAT AND SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS.

HEAT STROKE...HEAT EXHAUSTION AND OTHER HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES

WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF YOU SPEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT

OF TIME OUTDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS

EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY

WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE

POSSIBLE.

DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY

OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK IN ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS. TAKE

EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN

POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR

EVENING.

KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE.

WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND

DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE

OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS

SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED

ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL

AND SHADED LOCATION.

HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

&&

$$

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We are +20 at 850mb this morning but that could warm a degree or two by 0Z....yestereday we went 7 above dry...that would equate to a high of 95 today...I'm not sure if well mix-out as cleanly as we did yesterday when dewpoints fell into the lower 50s in the late afternoon....I like 94-96 across the area this afternoon.

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I really like this Fries person at NWS Pit.

Nice in-depth discussions.

Remember the days of one little paragraph for short term and long term discussions.

000

FXUS61 KPBZ 171600

AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1200 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND HOT WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. A

COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE

RULE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

NOON EDT UPDATE...UPDATE FOR SLIGHT RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE

SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL

THERMAL RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE

COUNTRY WITH ITS APEX CURVING ANTI- CYCLONICALLY AROUND A HIGH

PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CO- LOCATED WITH THIS

THERMAL RIDGE IS A VERY NOTICEABLE SURGE OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE

WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S EXTENDING UP THE MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THIS LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE AND THERMAL RIDGE COMBINATION SEEMS POISED TO COMBINE

WITH STRONGLY MIXED THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES

AND OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE THINGS PRETTY MISERABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE SETUP IS VERY GOOD AT THIS

TIME...THE MODELS HAVE FAILED TO BRING TWO FAIRLY IMPORTANT

FACTORS INTO CLEAR FOCUS. FIRST OF ALL...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH

INCREASED DEWPOINTS SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST OUR

REGION. GIVEN THE TOTAL LACK OF SHEAR...IT SEEMS FAIRLY CLEAR THAT

ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE DISORGANIZED AT BEST AND

PULSE-LIKE AT WORST...HOWEVER THE ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED

CAPE ON THE NAM DOES OPEN THE EYES OF A FORECASTER. THE MITIGATING

FACTOR TO CARRYING ANY COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS

THAT WE REALLY ARE LACKING ANY FOCUSING/LIFTING MECHANISM FOR

CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER

GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOWS NO IMMEDIATE HURRY TO

HEAD SOUTHWARD...NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT OUR AIR MASS SOURCE

REGION WAS FAIRLY QUIET ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A

RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE CARRIED...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE

NON-ZERO IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE SECOND ISSUE FOR TODAY`S FORECAST

WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A WILD DEVIATION IN TEMPERATURES

AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY WIDE

CONSIDERING IT IS DAY ONE. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO BE A BYPRODUCT OF

CONVECTION UNLEASHED BY SOME GUIDANCE LIKELY VIA THEIR CONVECTIVE

PARAMETERIZATIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES

WERE TRENDED MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION

GUIDANCE...WHICH RELY MUCH LESS HEAVILY ON PARAMETERIZATIONS. IT

JUST SO HAPPENS THIS MEANS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED MORE HEAVILY

TOWARD THE HOTTER GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. FOR

INSTANCE...GFS GRIDDED HIGHS AND MAV MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT PIT

ARE 93/92 RESPECTIVELY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NAM GRIDDED/MOS

VALUES ARE 98/95. GIVEN THAT YESTERDAY`S HIGH WAS 93 AND TODAY

SHOULD SEE INCREASED LOW LEVEL WARMING...MIXING...NOT TO MENTION

THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ISSUES WITH THE

MODELS...THE FORECAST HIGHS WERE GENERALLY RAISED INTO THE MID TO

UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.

AFTER A QUITE HOT DAY...LAYER RH VALUES START TO INCREASE GOING

INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD START THE TREND TOWARD INCREASED CLOUD

COVER AS THE MODELS START THEIR SLOW SOUTHWARD MEANDERING OF THE

FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS

OCCURS...THE BEST 850 MB THERMAL RIDGING FLOPS DOWN ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA COMMISERATE WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. AS A

RESULT...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY UP MUCH HIGHER THAN IN RECENT

NIGHTS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE UPPER 60S

TO LOWER 70S...HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CONTINUAL

INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THESE

PROGNOSTICATIONS MAY BE TOO LOW. THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED

GENERALLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE

ECMWF/SREF NUMBERS RATHER THAN STATISTICAL OR GFS/NAM NUMBERS TO

TRY TO KEEP THE DIURNAL LIMITED. FRIES

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY STARTS TO ENTER THE

PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BEFORE IT PASSES...WE NOW SEEM

LIKELY TO SQUEAK OUT ONE LAKE HOT/VERY WARM DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS

850 MB TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO AGAIN PEAK OUT NEAR

20C...HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG INSOLATION DUE TO INCREASED

CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER LAYER RH VALUES IS FAR LOWER. AS A

RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE

EXPECTED TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE PROFILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD

CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY WELL MIXED...LEADING TO A DECENT SHOT AT

MIXING OUT THE STILL HIGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. THE

SECOND FACTOR MAKING IT A HOT DAY WILL BE THE STILL-INCREASING LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT. DEWPOINTS FROM THE GFS/SREF/GRIDDED MOS

ALL SURGE INTO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND

COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY MAKING ANOTHER RUN AT THE LOWER

90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY AGAIN SURPASS 100. THIS MAY REQUIRE

ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY...LIKELY FOR A MORE LIMITED AREA THAN

TODAY...HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING CLOUD COVER

EXPECTATIONS...ONE WAS NOT HOISTED FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

REGARDLESS...IT MAY WELL FEEL NEARLY AS HOT ON WEDNESDAY AS TODAY

DUE MORE TO HUMIDITY THAN THE TEMPERATURE.

AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO

INDICATE STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS

HAVE SHOWN BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR SEVERAL RUNS

WITH LIFT INDEX VALUES SUB -6 FOR JUST AS MANY RUNS. WITH THE

ADDED LIFTING MECHANISM INTO THE PICTURE VIA FRONTAL

LIFT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY. WHILE THE

FRONT WILL GIVE THEM AN AREA TO FOCUS...BULK SHEAR ON WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON IS SORELY LACKING. WHILE SPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A

SLIGHT RISK...IT SEEMS DUE TO WEAK SHEAR THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS

FAR MORE OF A THREAT THAN DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. IN

FACT...THE EXTREMELY HUMID/HOT AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY

MAKE LARGE HAIL VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO MANAGE GIVEN THE THERMAL

PROFILE AND LIKELIHOOD OF MELTING OF ANY HAIL THAT FORMS ALOFT. AS

A RESULT...THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOCUSES MORE ON THE HEAVY

RAINFALL THREAT...WITH A SECONDARY MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS. IF ANY

CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO GO SEVERE...GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR...IT

SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND PULSE-LIKE WITH WIND BEING THE ONLY

SIGNIFICANT THREAT. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SOUTHWARD TRENDING OF THE FRONT

LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...SOME GUIDANCE

EVEN LIKES THE IDEA OF TRACKING A WAVE DOWN THE FRONT ROUGHLY

CENTERED AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TO ACCOUNT FOR

THIS...THE CLEARING AND DRYING FROM THE NORTH WAS SLOWED IN THE

FORECAST TO TAKE BASICALLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO ENCOMPASS THE

ENTIRE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WERE

SLOWED ABOUT A DAY COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND TO PICK FROM SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20 KTS WITH

AFTERNOON HEATING AND MIXING. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH

TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BRING SOME INCREASING MIDDLE CLOUDS BUT

NOT MUCH RISK OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND

THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS CAN

BE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS

BOUNDARY. PREVAILING VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT

AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS

ACROSS REGION.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

-- Changed Discussion --

MD...NONE.

OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-

048>050-057>059-068-069.

PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007-013-014-

020-021-029-031-073-075.

WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-

021-022.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

OHC029-081-PAC003-007-125-WVC029-181800-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0111.120718T1700Z-120718T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

100 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIANA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...

NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...

WEST CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTHERN BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

EXTREME NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 1251 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WELLSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT

20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

TOMLINSON RUN STATE PARK... NEWELL...

NEW MANCHESTER... NEW CUMBERLAND... WELLSVILLE...

TORONTO... HAMMONDSVILLE...

BEAVER CREEK STATE PARK... EAST LIVERPOOL...

SUN VALLEY... CHESTER... BLACKHAWK...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAY...

I-376 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 36 AND 60.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS

IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS A KILLER. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE

CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 8016 4042 8016 4042 8075 4074 8075

TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 268DEG 16KT 4059 8058

$$

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 492

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

115 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC003-005-007-019-031-051-059-063-065-073-125-129-190100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0492.120718T1715Z-120719T0100Z/

PA

. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER

BUTLER CLARION FAYETTE

GREENE INDIANA JEFFERSON

LAWRENCE WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND

$$

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

OHC081-PAC003-007-125-WVC009-029-181900-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0113.120718T1754Z-120718T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

154 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...

WEST CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTHERN BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

BROOKE COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

RICHMOND...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

SMITHFIELD... RICHMOND... HAMMONDSVILLE...

DILLONVALE... JUG RUN... WINTERSVILLE...

STEUBENVILLE... NEW CUMBERLAND... WINDSOR HEIGHTS...

TOMLINSON RUN STATE PARK... TORONTO...

NEW MANCHESTER...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...

I-376 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45 AND 60.

I-70 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 16 AND 19.

I-79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 38 AND 47.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS

IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS A KILLER. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE

CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT

WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND

SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 8015 4017 8017 4019 8083 4057 8084

TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 279DEG 9KT 4046 8073

$$

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Basically just shower activity here in Bridgeville this afternoon and evening...'tis the nature of convection...per SPC a few reports of high winds/damage:

1810 UNK 4 E WEXFORD ALLEGHENY PA 4063 7997 TREES DOWN IN NORTH PARK (PBZ)

1820 UNK BALDWIN ALLEGHENY PA 4036 7997 TREE LIMB DOWNS IN JEFFERSON MEMORIAL CEMETARY (PBZ)

1835 UNK MCKEESPORT ALLEGHENY PA 4034 7984 TREES DOWN (PBZ)

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94ewbg.gif

Caught this image from HPC on my facebook feed...looks like a good chance for those that do see rain today, will be seeing a helluva lot of it!

Heavy rains are moving in now. I'm in your neck of the woods today and it looks like it is on our doorstep, according to radar. We need it for sure. I didn't see hardly anything yesterday where I was at.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

PAC003-063-129-192015-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0132.120719T1919Z-120719T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

319 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

CENTRAL WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST MIFFLIN...

MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

WILKINSBURG... WEST MIFFLIN... OAKLAND...

MCKEESPORT... ELIZABETH BORO... EAST LIBERTY...

TURTLE CREEK... MONROEVILLE... MURRYSVILLE...

IRWIN... JEANNETTE... DELMONT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...

ROUTE 43 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 53.

I-376 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 73 AND 84.

TOLL 66 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 13.

I-76 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 54 AND 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS

IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS A KILLER. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE

CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772.

&&

LAT...LON 4051 7938 4018 7937 4027 7997 4047 7997

TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 274DEG 21KT 4036 7986

$$

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FLASH FLOOD WARNING

PAC003-125-202100-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.FF.W.0009.120720T1802Z-120720T2100Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

202 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 158 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND LOCAL

RAINFALL GAUGES REPORTED RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES PER

HOUR. THIS IS LIKELY CAUSING ADDITIONAL RISING WATER OVER LOCAL

ROADWAYS AND IN LOCAL STREAMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY

COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...LOW LYING

SPOTS ON ROADS...AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT FOR SAFE PASSAGE.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING

TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 4039 7976 4030 7979 4028 7978 4028 7980

4026 7979 4024 7981 4023 7978 4020 7986

4017 7985 4015 7991 4023 8049 4041 8050

4053 8026 4040 7974

$$

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After a nice cool, yet cloudy day, looks like it's going to get warmer again, and on Monday appears that there could very well be a severe weather, i looks interesting, here's the NAM Significant Tornado Parameter map, pretty high values over Western PA

post-8044-0-99265700-1342926997_thumb.gi

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Wow, we basically went from showers and thunderstorms likely in the forecast for today and tomorrow, with some possible severe, to just a slight chance of showers for tomorrow. That threat just completely fell apart for this area. I noticed storms were to our south today and then nothing after that.

Well, tonight, most of the area from the Ohio Valley to Western PA/NY is capped, but the Slight Risk of severe is still in place, due to the potential of overnight severe storms, which i think is low, but some low tornado probs and 15% hail/wind probs, then tomorrow our situation could be like on June 29th, start with a low threat of severe and end up being in a moderate risk, some of the models have a large MCS heading from IN into OH then WV/PA tomorrow afternoon, then on Thursday, Western PA could be under the gun for a significant severe event, with a fairly decent storm system moving over the area

We got a couple busy days coming up

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