Burghblizz Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Not. One. Flake. Although I did see a couple cars on the parkway this morning caked with an inch or two of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 You may not have meant anything by it. But don't come into this thread, post a map, and cancel an event before it starts. Mabey I'm the only one, but nobody I know here in Pittsburgh, uses Pitt as an abbreviation for Pittsburgh. Fair enough, I won't do it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 This model (CMC) has been the best thus far that I have seen this year from predicting these storms. It had us on the outside looking in since Saturday morning but I didn't want to believe it. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Just my opinion Well, it does show snow at hour 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Well, it does show snow at hour 120 That would be hilarious if it actually verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 That would be hilarious if it actually verified. That would be crazy for sure. At best, we'd probably have another situation where higher elevations get some snow and we get a cold rain, especially since that's going even later into the season than we already are now. I just want it to stay warmer now and forget about the winter at this point. I don't need Mother Nature playing any more tricks on us or the models! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Well, it does show snow at hour 120 Still there. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 It looks like just a cold rain on saturday now and warming up next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 It looks like just a cold rain on saturday now and warming up next week. I actually saw some snow flurries earlier this morning. I saw more snow this morning than we saw from that storm this past Monday! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 28, 2012 Author Share Posted April 28, 2012 Light snow flurries here in the last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Potent storms have formed in Ohio, looks like they're heading our way, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Mesoscale Discussion 664 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OH/WESTERN PA/FAR WESTERN NY TO WV PANHANDLE/NORTHERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 022056Z - 022300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP/POTENTIALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OH/WESTERN PA AND EVENTUALLY FAR WESTERN NY...SOUTHEASTWARD TO WESTERN MD/NORTHERN VA/WV PANHANDLE. DISCUSSION...ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A WARM FRONT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS REFLECT SOME INCREASE IN THE CU FIELD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN MD/WV PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN VA...WITH A FEW TSTMS AS OF 21Z. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE THE CU FIELD HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY FLAT FARTHER WEST-NORTHWEST...AN ASSORTMENT OF SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG INDICATIONS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA AND EVENTUALLY FAR WESTERN NY. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE TIED OF THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ONTARIO...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/NEAR-LAKE CONVERGENCE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A SEVERE THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL COULD INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING SUCH THAT A WATCH COULD BE WARRANTED. ..GUYER/CARBIN.. 05/02/2012 ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 42807895 42257861 41147831 39317729 38487776 39067885 40408028 40568153 40688200 40948234 41378260 41658199 41828147 42307987 42807895 Waiting and watching for the line to fire to our N&W. Looking at a modified sounding...thinking wind will be primary strong/severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Storms are firing up along the PA/NY border but nothing near our area yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Blah...bustola. Shortwave passing well to north...warm front well to the north...CIN (convective inhibition) btw 800mb-650mb, as per 00Z sounding, screwed this one. We'll see if the current lower Mississippi Valley trof can enhance our chances again tomorrow night, probably late night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 Blah...bustola. Shortwave passing well to north...warm front well to the north...CIN (convective inhibition) btw 800mb-650mb, as per 00Z sounding, screwed this one. We'll see if the current lower Mississippi Valley trof can enhance our chances again tomorrow night, probably late night. Being a thunderstorm lover I was looking forward to Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday night having solid chances for thunderstorms. Monday night's complex weakens and gives us a few light showers. Tuesday's complex weakens and moves south and we get a few light showers. Tonight it all fires North and East and even though it was predicted, nothing comes out of Ohio. 3 solid busts. I am golfing tomorrow morning and no storms are forecasted so watch the skies open up on the course. After typing this I noticed that some storms have popped up around Mansfield, Ohio. Now that NWS Pit has changed the forecast to "Mostly Clear" overnight, wouldn't it be nice to have a storm move through. Just be out of here tomorrow am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 After typing this I noticed that some storms have popped up around Mansfield, Ohio. Now that NWS Pit has changed the forecast to "Mostly Clear" overnight, wouldn't it be nice to have a storm move through. Wake up! Clear is good. Makes it easier to see the lightning.... Edit to add: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 324 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 OHZ040-041-049-050-PAZ014-020>022-029-073-WVZ001-002-030830- ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-CARROLL OH-COLUMBIANA OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-JEFFERSON OH-WASHINGTON PA-WESTMORELAND PA- 324 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 ...HEAVY RAIN... THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CARROLL...COLUMBIANA...HARRISON...JEFFERSON...ALLEGHENY... ARMSTRONG...BEAVER...BUTLER...WASHINGTON...WESTMORELAND...HANCOCK AND BROOKE... AT 322 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR IN PITTSBURGH INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FREEPORT TO BEAVER TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KILGORE...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERATING HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL POND WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE... NEWELL... CHESTER... SARVER... MARS... LERNERVILLE... CRANBERRY... BLACKHAWK... BEAVER FALLS... BEAVER... WELLSVILLE... KILGORE... HAMMONDSVILLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 Wake up! Clear is good. Makes it easier to see the lightning.... Edit to add: 3 solid hours of lightning and thunder kept me up. Hahaha Off to the "wet" course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 3 solid hours of lightning and thunder kept me up. Hahaha Off to the "wet" course. Yeah, it woke me up about 4:30 this morning. The NWS had t'storms in the forecast for last night and then changed it to mostly clear. It seems like anytime they give up on something, that's when we end up getting it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Yeah, it woke me up about 4:30 this morning. The NWS had t'storms in the forecast for last night and then changed it to mostly clear. It seems like anytime they give up on something, that's when we end up getting it. Lol Yeah I obviously gave up on it too...the bustola was NWS and me! Nighttime/overnight convection around here is beyond maddening to forecast. My situation is compounded by our office cloing at midnight, and then reopening at 4am...so I have to try and give precise point thunderstorm warnings 1-4hrs in advance. Man after the snow debacle last week and this t-storm event, I've had two of my worst busts in almost 10 years of forecasting...ugh. As I mentioned before, we'll see if something late tonight, from the southwest influence of the current Tennesee Valley shortwave. If not, hoping coinciding with peak heating, the front Friday afternoon should make for some easier forecasting, and hopefully some action to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Well I'm not gonna have too wait long...a rouge cell just popped up to my west here in Canonsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Well I'm not gonna have too wait long...a rouge cell just popped up to my west here in Canonsburg. I'm right next to you in McMurray and I can hear the thunder off in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Well I had a minute of rain, just a trace...but the towering Cu are a sight to see all around me. I'm actually heading over to McMurray in a little bit to pay a bill...small world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Well I had a minute of rain, just a trace...but the towering Cu are a sight to see all around me. I'm actually heading over to McMurray in a little bit to pay a bill...small world. That's about all I had. The sun pretty much stayed out the whole time. There's another cell moving through the WV panhandle that we might have a shot at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 We're currently in the middle of the slight risk area for severe weather late this afternoon and later tonight. There's some storms forming in Ohio right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 Storms about 2 hours away if they hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Weakening. Gone.. Just turned off the air conditioning and opened the windows. Gotta have that fresh air. Looks like the next week I won't need the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Gone.. Just turned off the air conditioning and opened the windows. Gotta have that fresh air. Looks like the next week I won't need the air. I think I got a brief shower last night but that was about it. That line completely fell apart once the sun went down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 WTF? NOW it's raining... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Some storms starting to pop up around the area. I just had a rather brief one move through Bethel Park not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN OH...FAR NRN KY....SWRN PA....FAR NRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 071740Z - 071945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL OHIO. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED. A BROAD CU FIELD WAS ALSO NOTED ON 17Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN PA IN THE VICINITY OF A NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS AREA MAY ALSO SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...AROUND 20-30 KT...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY MULTICELL CLUSTERS AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOULD STORMS ORGANIZE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THEY WOULD POSE A GREAT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT STRENGTH DESPITE THE UNSTABLE/MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND THEREFORE ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH PW VALUES WILL AID IN GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH ALL STORMS HOWEVER AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW THIS AFTERNOON. ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/07/2012 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 40348217 39218392 38798462 38568469 38318458 38098410 38108345 38378274 38598227 39168101 39558001 39867940 40247913 40437918 40697929 40847965 40858009 40858083 40588182 40348217 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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