rgwp96 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 r u guys leafed out at all? if so i had 8 -10 inches(depending on elevation) in october and it was devastating. trees and tree limbs down all over and with some people out of power for over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 So, now they're saying the changeover will be overnight again? This is a tough one to forecast for sure. So many variables to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm sure this is mostly due to the pending storm, but this discussion is tremendous. This guy (or girl) "Fries" might be "our guy" from now on.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 722 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... WITH 6PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION IN MOST LOCATIONS BY A FEW HOURS. WHILE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY 2-3 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT HAVE BLENDED BACK TO PREVIOUS PRECIP TIMING BY 2-3AM. THIS WILL NOT REQUIRE ANY CHANGE TO ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A COMPLICATED LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS CONTINUING TO UNFOLD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW HAS ALREADY STARTED ITS HARD LEFT TURN TO RACE UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A RATHER COMPLICATED INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES BOTH AN INCREASINGLY CURVED AS WELL AS INCREASINGLY COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMA WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE TRACK OF A SURFACE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS IT SURGES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PHILADELPHIA AND NEW YORK BY MORNING. A VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD. THE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY CONTINUOUSLY MIXED SURFACE LAYER WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUOUSLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING. IN ADDITION...JUST OFF THE SURFACE...GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 50-60 KTS OF FLOW PRESENT PER BUFKIT. WITH AT LEAST THE SURFACE LAYER BEING MIXED...GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40-45 MPH SEEM REASONABLE AS A RESULT. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN CONTINUOUSLY COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT LIKELY FROM A SOURCE REGION INCLUDING LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. WHAT`S IMPORTANT ABOUT THIS IS THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 25-30F RANGE...WHICH SHOULD HELP THE CASE FOR WET BULB COOLING AS THIS AIR WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...WHEN LIFT FIRST SPREADS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...PRECIPITATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BEING AS RAIN ALMOST EVERYWHERE...HOWEVER AS THE COMBINATION OF A COLDER SOURCE AIR AS WELL AS INCREASED COLUMN ADIABATIC COOLING DUE TO INTENSELY NEGATIVE OMEGAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE REGION...MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY AROUND DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE RATHER TOUGH TO DETERMINE. GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY WARM GIVEN THAT WE FAILED TO REACH THE HIGHS ANY MODELS OR MOS SUGGESTED TODAY...NOT TO MENTION THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT THAT TRANSITS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE...WHICH PUTS A PRECARIOUSLY LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FREEZING BY MORNING. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WHILE ALL THE FUN STARTS TONIGHT...THE MOST FUN PART OF THE FORECAST REALLY OCCURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...THE NAM AND GFS BOTH PORTRAY A VERY WELL DEVELOPED TROWAL WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...WITH ITS APEX PLANTED SQUARELY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IMPRESSIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IS PRESENT IN A DEEP LAYER FROM ABOUT 850 UP TO 500 MB INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA SUCH THAT A STRONG AND PROLONGED MAXIMA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP IN AN AXIS BASICALLY STRINGING THE RIDGES OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY IN THE 850-600 MB LAYER. ADDITIONALLY...ON THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION...THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT SOME AMOUNT OF EPV REDUCTION. THIS...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET COUPLING...AND THE NOSE OF A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PLACING A SOLID AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC AS WELL AS MESOSCALE COMPONENTS TO SUPPORT PROLONGED AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LIFT TO SIT OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LIFT COUPLED WITH CONTINUOUS COLD ADVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR A VERY TIGHT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS SUCH...HIGHS SEEM UNLIKELY TO WANDER MUCH FROM WHAT THE READINGS WILL BE AT SUNRISE...WHICH AT THIS TIME SEEM LIKELY TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. GIVEN BUFKIT PROFILES FROM THE NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS LAYER TEMPERATURES OF THE CANADIAN REGION AND ECMWF THAT STRING FREEZING BELOW 900 MB...AND GENERALLY COOL INTO THE -5 TO -6C RANGE AT 850 MB...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE BEST LIFT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. ONLY DURING THE LIGHTER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION DOES IT SEEM POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROFILES STRADDLING FREEZING...THE WARM GROUND...AND HIGH SUN ANGLE...HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL BE EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT TO COME BY. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST ISSUED YESTERDAY IS THAT MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE BEST NEGATIVE OMEGA CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DOES LEND ITS HAND TO HIGHER RATIOS DUE TO A BETTER ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. ALL FACTORS CONSIDERED...BUFKIT FROM THE NAM AND GFS FAVORED RATIOS BETWEEN 10 AND 15:1...HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE...WARM GROUND...AND MARGINAL SURFACE LAYER TEMPERATURES...RATIOS WERE RESTRICTED TO BELOW 9:1 EVERYWHERE...AND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS (INCLUDING PITTSBURGH) THESE RATIOS WERE FURTHER RESTRICTED TO BELOW 5:1 OWING TO A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ON THE TEMPORAL PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM`S PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. ALL IN ALL...WATCHES WERE UPGRADED TO EITHER WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WITH ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS. IN ADDITION...ONE MORE ROW OF COUNTIES WERE ADDED AS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ON THE WESTERN FLANGE OF THE PRODUCTS...THAT NOW INCLUDES MORGANTOWN. ANY OF THE AREAS UNDER THE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS SEEM LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. COUPLING THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND WILL LIKELY CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH BROKEN LIMBS ON THE NEWLY LEAFED TREES AROUND THE AREA. AS SUCH...THE LOGIC FOR PRODUCT ISSUANCE WAS MORE FOR THIS PROBLEM AND THE ACCOMPANYING POWER OUTAGES THAN FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO IMPACT THE ROADWAYS. AFTER THE BIG STORM...SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTHERN ZONES AS WEAK DEFORMATION COUPLED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM BY THAT TIME...SO PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AND END ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE. DRY WEATHER SHOULD ENSUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD THEREAFTER. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Cancel Pitt. You may not have meant anything by it. But don't come into this thread, post a map, and cancel an event before it starts. Mabey I'm the only one, but nobody I know here in Pittsburgh, uses Pitt as an abbreviation for Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 r u guys leafed out at all? if so i had 8 -10 inches(depending on elevation) in october and it was devastating. trees and tree limbs down all over and with some people out of power for over a week. Pretty much, yeah. At least in my particular area I am. Most trees are "fully leafed" here in southern Allegheny County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I'm sure this is mostly due to the pending storm, but this discussion is tremendous. This guy (or girl) "Fries" might be "our guy" from now on.... Wow, I'm not sure if I have ever seen an AFD from PIT like that. That's about as detailed as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Wow, I'm not sure if I have ever seen an AFD from PIT like that. That's about as detailed as it gets. So detailed, it almost gave me a headache reading it! lol This person doesn't spare any details at all. Nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I'm down to 39 degrees with a 2 degree drop in the last hour.....although I know this may be a slightly weenie-ish post as dynamics will probably be more imporant for a rapid changeover than starting temp. Just reporting.... EDIT: 38 now at 9:16. 37 now at 9:37 OK back up to 38 at 9:45, along with forcing myself to take a timeout until 10:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Noticed snow is starting around DuBois, PA. 34° /... same for Bradford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 No matter what happens with this storm, seeing sub 530 mb heights forecasted, is really impressive for late April. Those are heights you only see in Greenland this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 I'm down to 39 degrees with a 2 degree drop in the last hour.....although I know this may be a slightly weenie-ish post as dynamics will probably be more imporant for a rapid changeover than starting temp. Just reporting.... EDIT: 38 now at 9:16. I just dropped to 39.9. I was at 43 about 2 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 992 MB low looks to be centered over the delmarva/cape may NJ. That is stronger than the models had it progged. ALso is slightly more west than the NAM had it progged, and further west than the GFS had it. Any adjustment here could help us big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 The 00z NAM is an unmitigated disaster....We basically are going to get nothing from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Precip over the next 24 hours on the NAM. Game, set, match for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I think the better stuff is to the east of Pit, but Pit has always been on the edge so not really a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I think the better stuff is to the east of Pit, but Pit has always been on the edge so not really a surprise. Not per the NAM and it's dreams of 15"+ a couple days ago and consistant 8"+ today Something is up with this run....I mean even northwest PA gets shafted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Not per the NAM and it's dreams of 15"+ a couple days ago and consistant 8"+ today Something is up with this run....I mean even northwest PA gets shafted Those guys will get synoptic and LE snow which is why the terrain above 1500' is getting hit hard by the NWS. Obviously how and when the band develops has been the biggest question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 It's also why we have ranges in situations like this. It's a very anomalous pattern so nobody should focus on the highest amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 Not per the NAM and it's dreams of 15"+ a couple days ago and consistant 8"+ today Something is up with this run....I mean even northwest PA gets shafted It is really weird how the precip almost disappears up to the NY/Pa border. I have been looking at the HRRR and it still has that band move in and set up North to South through our area. Could the model have an error across Pa? Just asking. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=t7&run_time=22+Apr+2012+-+23Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 It is really weird how the precip almost disappears up to the NY/Pa border. I have been looking at the HRRR and it still has that band move in and set up North to South through our area. Could the model have an error across Pa? Just asking. http://rapidrefresh....rrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t7&wjet=1 The HRRR looks like it gives about .25 of QPF through the next 15 hrs...unfortunately, that won't be more than an inch and might not even stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 It's also why we have ranges in situations like this. It's a very anomalous pattern so nobody should focus on the highest amounts. Well yes certainly.....which is why we were at no point expecting the NAM's 16" and 18" totals from the past 36 hours. My point was that there has been a high level of consistency showing this as a significant event. If this is correct, it's a pretty dramatic change in modeling by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Well yes certainly.....which is why we were at no point expecting the NAM's 16" and 18" totals from the past 36 hours. My point was that there has been a high level of consistency showing this as a significant event. If this is correct, it's a pretty dramatic change in modeling by the NAM. It still will be, but for your area..might be more into JST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 Well yes certainly.....which is why we were at no point expecting the NAM's 16" and 18" totals from the past 36 hours. My point was that there has been a high level of consistency showing this as a significant event. If this is correct, it's a pretty dramatic change in modeling by the NAM. It's not every day you see a model go from 10 inches of snow to 1 inch in 12 hours less than 24 hours from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 It still will be, but for your area..might be more into JST. I understand that...but even the GFS and Euro as of last night were showing around an inch or so of QPF in the Pittsburgh area. IN the last 24 that modeling has gone down to near nothing at this point. The NAM is just an absolutely huge swing. I was watching the models through out the day, and I went from thinking that this was a probable 6 inch storm at least for the Pittsburgh when I woke up to now thinking we might be getting an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I understand that...but even the GFS and Euro as of last night were showing around an inch or so of QPF in the Pittsburgh area. IN the last 24 that modeling has gone down to near nothing at this point. The NAM is just an absolutely huge swing. I was watching the models through out the day, and I went from thinking that this was a probable 6 inch storm at least for the Pittsburgh when I woke up to now thinking we might be getting an inch. The thing is, QPF means nothing in a marginal event. You have to look at where the banding sets up, because that will dictate cities like PIT on whether or not they will get snow. The best banding was still questionable as PIT was right on the edge. One move, and that's it. The models earlier today imo did not look great for PIT. I thought they would be on the edge and they will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 It's not every day you see a model go from 10 inches of snow to 1 inch in 12 hours less than 24 hours from the event. Man, I completely put this winter to bed over a month and a half ago, and was ready for spring. I let this rope me back in, and like the rest of the winter, a bust. Oh well, maybe there will be a baseball game I can go to tomorrow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Man, I completely put this winter to bed over a month and a half ago, and was ready for spring. I let this rope me back in, and like the rest of the winter, a bust. Oh well, maybe there will be a baseball game I can go to tomorrow now. Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. We all let this past winter go weeks ago and then this little surprise came up and pulled us back in. This one may just end up like the rest. Another near miss for the area. It's given us something unusual for this time of year to track and talk about anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. We all let this past winter go weeks ago and then this little surprise came up and pulled us back in. This one may just end up like the rest. Another near miss for the area. It's given us something unusual for this time of year to track and talk about anyway. Typical storm tracking for Southwestern pa. All the posts start out as "Western Pa. gets clobbered...gets crushed...Look out" Then we usually end up on the edge with a minor accumulation. Just like every year we get modeled for about 150 inches of snow every year only to end up with our average of 40 which comes 1 or 2 inches at a time. I too got sucked in and yes it was something to track but now I would rather have sunny and 55 than 1/2 inch of slush which will cancel my kids ball games early this week. Oh well. No I can say it with confidence. "I am ready for warm, humid air with Thunderstorms." (Of course I will still be on here tomorrow with my observations of the wet snow we do get...haha) The life of a weather nut. And we will all be back in November for more frustration. It's what we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Typical storm tracking for Southwestern pa. All the posts start out as "Western Pa. gets clobbered...gets crushed...Look out" Then we usually end up on the edge with a minor accumulation. Just like every year we get modeled for about 150 inches of snow every year only to end up with our average of 40 which comes 1 or 2 inches at a time. I too got sucked in and yes it was something to track but now I would rather have sunny and 55 than 1/2 inch of slush which will cancel my kids ball games early this week. Oh well. No I can say it with confidence. "I am ready for warm, humid air with Thunderstorms." (Of course I will still be on here tomorrow with my observations of the wet snow we do get...haha) The life of a weather nut. And we will all be back in November for more frustration. It's what we do. At least it isn't January, this would've hurt. LoL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Not everyone is quite so down.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1118 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPR LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST OF RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH FOR THE NEAR TERM. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...DEVELOPMENT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AREAS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES...AS WELL AS ENCROACMENT OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. IN ADDITION...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...OFFSET BY MIDWRN HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVR THE REGION TODAY. WIND GUSTS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS MIXING LEVEL DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO HEADLINES TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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