meatwad Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 945 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 ...LATE-SEASON HEAVY AND WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT AREA... .STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING RAIN LATER SUNDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL MAY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION. A HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. THIS MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE DOWNING OF TREE LIMBS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED LEAVES WHICH MAY IN TURN SPAWN POWER OUTAGES. SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-073>076-WVZ023-041-220945- /O.CON.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.120423T0400Z-120424T0400Z/ GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION- JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND- WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...SHARON... HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY... FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY... BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE... REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING... FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA... GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN... LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON... OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS... DAVIS...THOMAS 945 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...MAY BE REDUCED BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Not sure how everything is playing out in terms of temp profiles, but the 0Z NAM looks STRONGER to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Not sure how everything is playing out in terms of temp profiles, but the 0Z NAM looks STRONGER to me.... Monday morning WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I think we really have to watch surface temps here.... Just looking at 850, this is one of the best set of models runs in years. I just wonder what exactly the surface temps will be, *and* how much will accumulate if temps are in the mid 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Monday morning WOW! Yeah, that's when we're supposed to get heaviest snow. That'll make for an interesting rush hour. Glad I'm off Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I think we really have to watch surface temps here.... Just looking at 850, this is one of the best set of models runs in years. I just wonder what exactly the surface temps will be, *and* how much will accumulate if temps are in the mid 30's And just as I post this, NAM puts a niiiiiice little circle around us mid afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Crazy.... NAM actually shows a pocket of subfreezing surface temps monday into tuesday with precip still falling. Also looks like a least 1.5 - 2.5 inches of qpf. The areas that stay snow will get an accumulation just due to the fact it will be falling faster than it can melt. Stronger system is better if you want snow as we will be relying on dynamics to cool the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 That is one very strong low. Like a weak inland hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 QPF just as high as the 18z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 QPF just as high as the 18z run... Impressive, reminds me of Feb 5-6 2010 where we got 20"+ of snow. If this were January, it would be one hell of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The NAM is the big winner for us so far. GFS will start rolling soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 One thing that I have been thinking about today. If we get the heavy wet snow, not only will the trees suffer damage but the landscaping will be in trouble. Just in my yard alone I have 2 big Magnolia bushes on each side of my house that are just about full. Every snow since I have lived here they have been bare. I have azalia bushes in bloom, ferns in my landscaping, and many flowers almost full size that will be crushed by the snow. I remember after the Feb 2010 storm many people had shrubs damaged which lead to great sales for landscapers the following spring. Hopefully the landscapers will not have their supplies damaged as most nurseries have them displayed now. I may take some pictures tomorrow and then take some on Monday if we get the snow for some before and after shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Interesting too see how much Mt Davis gets. For me personally, thats a bit too risky during a snowstorm. It would be great to be at least, at 1600 ft for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Ugh...it looks to me as if the GFS/Euro have pushed the heaviest precip shield just east of us, so that we are fringed. The GFS still gives us about .75 of QPF, as does the Euro..possibly a bit west. That might be great in January, but with this event, if we are getting .75 inches QPF and light to moderate snow, we might be lucky to get 2 or 3 inches. NAM still bombs us, but I have a feeling that it will trend east the next couple runs. Looks like 50 miles east of the city will get bombed regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Ugh...it looks to me as if the GFS/Euro have pushed the heaviest precip shield just east of us, so that we are fringed. The GFS still gives us about .75 of QPF, as does the Euro..possibly a bit west. That might be great in January, but with this event, if we are getting .75 inches QPF and light to moderate snow, we might be lucky to get 2 or 3 inches. NAM still bombs us, but I have a feeling that it will trend east the next couple runs. Looks like 50 miles east of the city will get bombed regardless. Still a big difference in models. Which will win out. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Still a big difference in models. Which will win out. http://www.meteor.ia...phtml?site=kpit Gotta think that when you are hanging your hat on the usually more AMPED biased NAM you are in trouble in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Gotta think that when you are hanging your hat on the usually more AMPED biased NAM you are in trouble in this situation. Gotta think a 2-4 inch snowfall will still be a big deal this late. I remember in October I woke up to 1 inch of wet snow and it was enough to bring down several large branches in my yard before it started melting off. Maybe the pavements will remain mostly wet but trees and shrubs will be the bigger problem. Let's see what the 12Z says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 They've left us out of the Winter Weather watches, yet it seems we still have a fairly decent chance of seeing snow. I realize elevation will be a factor due to surface temps, but it doesn't seem like the "warm tongue" effect will matter with this system. The low wraps up and pulls in its own cold air--shouldn't that limit the influence of a SW flow? I guess if the NAM is the only model showing us getting a big storm then the NWS is making the right call. Perhaps I am overestimating our chances down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I've noticed the PIT NWS has held firm, in not including Washington or Greene to the watch. Also, CLE has added counties to our NW to the watch. They must still belive that the storm phases just a bit too late, and the latitude where the NW turn starts is too high, pushing the pivot point of heavier precip to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Gotta think that when you are hanging your hat on the usually more AMPED biased NAM you are in trouble in this situation. Yeah, 12Z NAM is still bombing us. No matter what model wins out, we're still going to see something very rare for these parts this late in the season. I had TWC on a little bit ago and they said 4-6 for Pittsburgh. I take them with a grain of salt though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 My guess for kpit is 1-3 slushy inches. Hope I am wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 My guess for kpit is 1-3 slushy inches. Hope I am wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 One thing that I have been thinking about today. If we get the heavy wet snow, not only will the trees suffer damage but the landscaping will be in trouble. Just in my yard alone I have 2 big Magnolia bushes on each side of my house that are just about full. Every snow since I have lived here they have been bare. I have azalia bushes in bloom, ferns in my landscaping, and many flowers almost full size that will be crushed by the snow. I remember after the Feb 2010 storm many people had shrubs damaged which lead to great sales for landscapers the following spring. Hopefully the landscapers will not have their supplies damaged as most nurseries have them displayed now. I may take some pictures tomorrow and then take some on Monday if we get the snow for some before and after shots. Why not just go out in the storm and brush off/ shake the Magnolias? With a little vigilance, you could do the same with some small to medium size trees on your property, potentially saving lots of money/damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 My guess for kpit is 1-3 slushy inches. Hope I am wrong... What's everyone think? Winter Weather advisory and 1-3 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 227 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 ...HEAVY AND WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT AREA... .STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING THAT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. A HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH. THIS MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE DOWNING OF TREE LIMBS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED LEAVES...WHICH MAY IN TURN SPAWN POWER OUTAGES. SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. PAZ020-021-230300- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.120423T0400Z-120424T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0011.120423T0900Z-120424T0600Z/ BEAVER-ALLEGHENY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA 227 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE HILLS AND AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. * TIMING...RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ON MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 227 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 ...HEAVY AND WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT AREA... .STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING THAT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. A HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH. THIS MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE DOWNING OF TREE LIMBS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED LEAVES...WHICH MAY IN TURN SPAWN POWER OUTAGES. SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. PAZ007>009-013>016-022-023-073-075-230300- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.120423T0400Z-120424T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0004.120423T0900Z-120424T0600Z/ MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA- ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHARON...HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY... GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK... TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE... CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY... KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO... INDIANA...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE... MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION 227 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 It'd be pretty funny to have the only school cancellation or snow delay of the season happen on April 23... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 What's everyone think? Winter Weather advisory and 1-3 inches? You almost got it. Who knows, we may still get just 1-3 out of it. 2-4 is down from the 6 or more inches and winter storm watch they had us under before. We'll see how it plays out from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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