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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather


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boom wow congrats in western pa (on model progs) at least....moisture laden bomb.....looks like around 2k ....someone could get 18 inches if things fall heavy at nite ....

late season climo sometimes scares forecasters from big numbers....i mean there would need to be continuity w/ modeling ..but pre halloween storm this year in new england demolished snow fall numbers.

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This is insane...I had completely buried this winter and didn't even give a thought to any more snowfalls even being possible.

This will cause a TON of problems though if this does happen. Travel wise, I think most will be OK. Even if we get 6 inches of snow, the roads are just going to be to warm to hold accumulating snow...however, power outages could be a huge issue with most trees having quite a bit of foliage on them. I know I won't park my car near any trees if this happens!

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This is insane...I had completely buried this winter and didn't even give a thought to any more snowfalls even being possible.

This will cause a TON of problems though if this does happen. Travel wise, I think most will be OK. Even if we get 6 inches of snow, the roads are just going to be to warm to hold accumulating snow...however, power outages could be a huge issue with most trees having quite a bit of foliage on them. I know I won't park my car near any trees if this happens!

One thing that surprised me during the May 10, 2008 snow event here was how snow laid on roads at the top ridges. For example, Pine Grove Mountain just east of State College got 3-4 inches of snow.

On Oct. 2, 2011, we got snow at higher elevations.

I took this photo about five miles from our house at about 2000 ft.:

316297_10150308215553148_587118147_8099746_935802705_n.jpg

That is at an intersection of US 322 and one of the side roads. Note that snow accumulated on the roads. It melted in the matter of a few hours but it accumulated due to very heavy rates and overnight. When I got up there the right lane was wet but the left lane was slushy and really dangerous, like driving on slime, lol. You can see the slushy left lane.

I took this photo with this motivation: To show that yes, if it falls hard enough and comes at night, snow can lay on warm roads.

If the snow falls during the day and not S+, roads will be fine. But if it comes at night and especially in places like the higher elevations on the Turnpike and US 22 east of Pittsburgh, I bet the roads get covered. But, I mostly agree with you, the conditions have to be just right.

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I just read the forecast discussion and they said they have very low confidence in the forecast for early next week right now with the models showing different solutions. They don't mention anything about snow though. They just mentioned cold with wind and rain if it tracks closer to us. This definitely through me off though.

Disco as of 5:36 p.m. at least gives a nod to the possibility of accumulation.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO

MODEL FLIP-FLOPPING...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE

LONG TERM DUE TO LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT ON FEATURES. HOWEVER...12Z

MODELS ARE COMING TO SOME AGREEMENT THAT A LATE SEASON STORM COULD

BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z MODEL

RUNS SHOW A STORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING

TOWARDS NEW YORK CITY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN HEADING INLAND

TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THIS

STORM FARTHER OFF THE COAST...WITH 12Z MODELS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT

SHIFT TO THE WEST. NOT SURE THAT THE STORM WILL ACTUALLY SHIFT SO

FAR TO THE WEST...BUT CONSIDERING NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF HAVE ALL SHOWN

THIS SHIFT...MUST MOVE THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. HAVE

INCREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS FROM PITTSBURGH EAST

ON MONDAY. MODEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX OF

RAIN/SNOW...IF NOT ALL SNOW TOWARDS I-80 AND THE RIDGES. SNOW

ACCUMULATION FORECAST IS TRICKY...CONSIDERING HOW WARM GROUND

TEMPERATURES WILL BE. HOWEVER...WITH THE LENGTH OF TIME SNOW COULD

BE FALLING...ACCUMULATION WOULD EVENTUALLY BE POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW

INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WESTERNMOST LOCATIONS...SUCH AS

ZANESVILLE...COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN DRY FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT.

(Bold added)

I'll bet you dollars to donuts that 90% of everybody's snow removal equipment (plows and salters), is already put away for the summer too. Imagine the morning rush hour if a couple of inches accumulate between 3 and 6 am... :mapsnow:

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Unless I'm missing something here, both the 6z GFS and NAM give us a monster snowstorm. NAM really buries us. GFS has trended west to also give us a substantial storm. I don't know if this is really going to happen, but it's pretty incredible to see something like this just a couple of days out on the models in late April. I guess it'll all depend on when this hits. If we get hit hard at night, that gives us our best chance at accumulating snow.

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This thread is either going to blow back up in the next few days, or continue to fade off into spring.

This looks April 87-ish to me with a much less western extent. What dream setup that is. However, is is almost 3 weeks later. My early thoughts are something resembling the October storm locally, with plenty of power outages to read about in the ridges and western NY

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

931 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-

029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-221345-

GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-

JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-

FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-

ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-

FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-

MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-

931 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST

CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST

PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO

EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AROUND THE WEST AND

NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN

PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND FAR EASTERN

OHIO...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AND POSSIBLY BECOME MODERATE TO

HEAVY AT TIMES. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIDGES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER

CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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Unless I'm missing something here, both the 6z GFS and NAM give us a monster snowstorm. NAM really buries us. GFS has trended west to also give us a substantial storm. I don't know if this is really going to happen, but it's pretty incredible to see something like this just a couple of days out on the models in late April. I guess it'll all depend on when this hits. If we get hit hard at night, that gives us our best chance at accumulating snow.

Yeah, 6z NAM is an absolute monster..Literally looks like it gives us over a foot of snow.

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12z NAM still clobbers us as well. It's just our luck that we may finally get a storm that tracks perfectly for us, but it's happening in late April! Lol Imagine this a couple of months ago!

Yeah really. lol

I would still like to see this storm phase as early as possible, any delay can really hurt us.

BTW, awesome radar. Go Pens.

A couple months ago with this sort of setup we'd possibly be staring down one of our most historic storms ever.

Ha, the board probably would've crashed.

Just a heads up, we both might only get a slushy 0.5", while our neighbors get decent amounts.

Dynamically cooled storms are not our friend here in the valley, especiallly off-season.

However with a little luck, we could get the column cooled all the way to the river.

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The GFS and NAM both say we are all going to die, lol.

NAM probably give close to 1.75 QPF...GFS close to 1.5 inches.

Might be time for some winter storm watches!

This is really getting interesting and a little scary.

The last 2 NAM Models are showing 12-16 inches of snow for Pit.

The 6zGfs shows 4 inches.

The 12zGfs-don't have the numbers yet but look to be more than 4 inches.

I live on high elevation with lots of trees around my house and hope not to lose any.

If we get over 4 inches it will be historic because I don't think we had a storm that big this late in the year.

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit

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Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

255 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

...LATE-SEASON HEAVY AND WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT AREA...

.A VERY STRONG SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...LEAVING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN

WEST VIRGINIA...AND FAR WESTERN MARYLAND ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE

TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND

BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. A

HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THAT MAY CAUSE

SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE DOWNING OF TREE LIMBS THAT HAVE

DEVELOPED LEAVES WHICH MAY IN TURN SPAWN POWER OUTAGES. SOME

TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-073>076-WVZ023-041-220800-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.120423T0400Z-120424T0400Z/

GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-

JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-

WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...SHARON...

HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...

FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...

BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...

REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...

MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...

FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...

GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...

LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN...

CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...

OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...

DAVIS...THOMAS

255 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

MONDAY EVENING.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT

AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND A HEAVY WET SNOW

WILL BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BE REDUCED BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN THE

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE

ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER

WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA.

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If you want to go wow, take a look at the 18z NAM running right now.

It obliterates us.

We're all going "wow" looking at these models. IF this does occur, widespread power outages, very hazardous travel, especially Monday morning, and then this may cause flooding from snow melt after it's gone. Temps are going to shoot right back up when this storm exits. Snow melt will be rapid. We have a wet ground already from the rain moving through today and the moisture content of this snow will be high. Many things to be concerned about with this one if it takes place.

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Pretty good discussion....

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

WHILE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE CONTINUING IN THE

LOW LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THE REAL COLD KICK STARTS UP

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CRATER TO -5

TO -6C ON THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM AT THE SAME TIME A STRONGLY

COUPLED AND FAVORABLY CURVED DIVERGENT UPPER JET STREAK PATTERN

STREAKS NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT THE SAME

TIME...THE 850 MB LOW TRACKS GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE

CWA...YIELDING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB TOPPING 65 KTS

PER THE NAM AND WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS PER THE GFS. THE NOSE OF

THIS LOW-LEVEL JET- IKE FLOW POINTS SQUARELY AT THE PITTSBURGH

METRO AREA PER THE NAM...AND JUST TO THE EAST PER THE GFS. THE

COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO FACTORS YIELDS AN IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF

NEGATIVE OMEGAS PER BOTH MODELS ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FOR IN

EXCESS OF 18 HOURS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ENOUGH THAT

DYNAMICAL COOLING SEEMS ALL BUT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. BUFKIT

SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS CONCLUSION AND YIELD ALMOST NO DIURNAL

TEMPERATURE RISES ON MONDAY AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING

SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...IT WOULD SEEM THAT IN THE AREA OF THE

STRONGEST OMEGAS...SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE

THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...THE SMALLER SCALE

NUTS AND BOLTS GIVE A SOMEWHAT BLURRIER PICTURE. ICE MICROPHYSICS

DO NOT REALLY SUPPORT A PARTICULARLY HIGH RATIO EVENT. THE

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER OF -12 TO -20C IS BARELY SATURATED...AND

THROUGHOUT THE TIME OF THE STRONGEST ASCENT...THE NEGATIVE OMEGA

BULLS EYE IS GENERALLY LOCATED BELOW THE -12 TO -20C LAYER.

COMBINING THIS WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE THAT IS RATHER

MARGINAL AND GENERALLY WITHIN 1C OF FREEZING FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE

DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER MAKES FOR A FAIRLY TENUOUS SNOWFALL

FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT FLOW DEFORMATION IN THE 850-700

MB LAYER COUPLED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AS WELL AS

SOME EPV REDUCTION IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL

CIRCULATION ON THE TROWAL PERIPHERY YIELDS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN

QPF VALUES IN EXCESS...AND POSSIBLY WELL IN EXCESS...OF 0.4

INCHES IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST LIFT. AS A RESULT...EVEN WITH

UNIMPRESSIVE RATIOS AND A MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER...PRECIPITATION

RATES SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO PILE UP. EVEN

USING RATIOS OF 7-8:1 IN THE RIDGES...4-5:1 AROUND PITTSBURGH...AND

MUCH LOWER THAN THAT IN POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...AT LEAST

SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS. IN

FACT...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY IN THE RIDGES

AND FROM PITTSBURGH NORTHEASTWARD WHERE THE CONFLUENCE OF

LIFT...COLDER AIR...AND A LONGER DURATION WILL MAKE RATIOS A BIT

HIGHER. ALL IN ALL...QPF WILL DRIVE THE HIGH SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS...RATHER THAN THE RATIOS. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN

THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP STRADDLE 2 INCHES IN THE AREAS OF BEST

LIFT...WHICH EVEN WITH THE UNIMPRESSIVE RATIOS STILL RESULT IN 6

OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...WINTER STORM WATCHES WERE

POSTED FOR THE RIDGES AND ALL AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE BEST SNOW/QPF

AXIS...HOWEVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE PAST

THREE CYCLES SUCH THAT CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN TO GREATER THAN 50

PERCENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SUNDAY

NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. FRIES

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Pittsburgh ranges from about 715ft by the river to 1265 ft at upper hill. It will be intersting to see what difference that makes.

Yeah, I've lived at both ends of the spectrum.

10/31/93 is the closest I can remember, however April 1987 might be the best analog for this situation.

Actually on the north side, there is a spot that's 1365 ft.

It's Brashear Reservoir right off of Perrysville Ave. ( Montana St.)

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lol what the hell is going on!?!? Ive been off the computer for 3 days with the house tore up for painting and I come on to see a winter storm watch. I'm thnikng oh must be for ridges and central PA, but no looks like we might get the perfect setup for a late season snow storm. I do wish this was a couple months ago but for historic sake I am really interested to see what happens.

Maybe mother nature is going to give the flyers a total whiteout to greet them for game 7 on tuesday!

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