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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather


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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

PAC003-051-125-129-281615-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0006.120328T1523Z-120328T1615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1123 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 1118 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

CLAYSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

CLAYSVILLE... ENTERPRISE... WASHINGTON...

BENTLEYVILLE... MONONGAHELA... CHARLEROI...

MONESSEN... CALIFORNIA... DONORA...

BELLE VERNON... BROWNSVILLE... WEST NEWTON...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 4019 7947 3995 7952 4011 8048 4029 8044

TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 280DEG 43KT 4018 8033

$$

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000

SXUS71 KPBZ 010023

RERPIT

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

0822 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR PITTSBURGH...

MARCH 2012 WILL BE THE WARMEST MARCH EVER RECORDED IN PITTSBURGH.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 31 WAS 57 DEGREES. THE LOW AS OF

8 PM WAS 41 DEGREES. FOR ALL OF MARCH 2012, THIS GIVES AN AVERAGE

HIGH OF 62.5 DEGREES AND AN AVERAGE LOW OF 40.4 DEGREES. THIS

COMPUTES TO A MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE OF 51.5 DEGREES.

HERE ARE THE WARMEST MARCH MEAN TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED IN

PITTSBURGH...

51.5 MARCH 2012

51.2 MARCH 1946

51.2 MARCH 1945

50.7 MARCH 1921

50.1 MARCH 1903

A NORMAL MARCH IS 39.6 DEGREES.

MARCH 2011 WAS 39.2 DEGREES.

IF THE TEMPERATURE THIS EVENING DROPS TO 40 OR 39 DEGREES BEFORE

MIDNIGHT, THE MONTHLY MEAN FOR MARCH 2012 WILL REMAIN 51.5 DEGREES.

IF IT DROPS TO 38, 37, OR 36 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT, THE MONTHLY

MEAN WILL ONLY FALL TO 51.4 DEGREES WHICH IS STILL A RECORD.

MARCH 2012 HIGHLIGHTS...

MARCH 13-23...11 CONSECUTIVE DAYS THE TEMPERATURE HIT 70 DEGREES

OR HIGHER.

3 HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BROKEN OR TIED. NEW RECORDS OF 77 AND 80

DEGREES WERE ESTABLISHED MARCH 17 AND MARCH 20 AND 81 DEGREES MARCH

23 TIED THE RECORD FOR THE DATE.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PITTSBURGH DATE BACK TO 1871.

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Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

611 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

OHZ041-050-PAZ020-021-029-WVZ001-092245-

ALLEGHENY PA-BEAVER PA-COLUMBIANA OH-HANCOCK WV-JEFFERSON OH-

WASHINGTON PA-

611 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALLEGHENY...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL

COLUMBIANA...HANCOCK...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN

WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN BEAVER COUNTIES...

AT 608 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 3 MILES

WEST OF BEAVER TO HARSHAVILLE TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

HAMMONDSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE

WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...

TOMLINSON RUN STATE PARK... NEW MANCHESTER...

SHIPPINGPORT... HARSHAVILLE... BEAVER...

NEW CUMBERLAND... RACCOON CREEK STATE PARK...

ALIQUIPPA... ECONOMY BORO... MOON...

IMPERIAL... FLORENCE...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY

CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4072 8038 4057 7982 4034 8002 4028 8036

4058 8073 4063 8049

$$

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I didn't personally see any flakes locally, but I run on different hours than most.

Seven Springs did alright here's their webcams:

http://www.7springs....ntain-Cams.html

I have had some mixed rain and light snow showers this morning.

I recently had a heavier burst of big wet snow flakes.

This may have excited me in November but not today.

I am ready for some warm humid weather with thunderstorms.

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SPC has us smack dab in the middle of the 15% chance for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (Monday 4/16).

There's a line in western Ohio right now that is pretty weak, but maybe it'll strengthen as it moves east toward us. Temps are very warm out already and a lot of sun may fuel that line as it gets closer. Seems like it's getting weaker as it moves east, so I don't know. We'll see.

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There's a line in western Ohio right now that is pretty weak, but maybe it'll strengthen as it moves east toward us. Temps are very warm out already and a lot of sun may fuel that line as it gets closer. Seems like it's getting weaker as it moves east, so I don't know. We'll see.

Nothing showing up yet.

It looks like a dry front with some windy conditions.

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Yeah, that line completely fell apart from earlier. I've notice that the humidity has been going down today, so the dewpoints are very low. Not much juice to work with.

It will be a pretty drastic change in temp too.

Currentlyy 83 and will be dropping into the 40's tonight.

From shorts and t-shirt to jacket tomorrow.

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Yeah, this: http://twitter.com/#...0772608/photo/1

That's crazy. How likely is that?

I saw that. I am still waiting. Here in Western Pa. we always do good in clown maps 3 days out even in the Winter. Many changes yet to come especially with it being late April. Need to see if the NAM catches on. If models move a little more east then we end up with a cloudy, blustery day with a few rain showers.

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Dumbest forecast ever? from the Pittsburgh NWS office for PIT:

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. North wind between 7 and 9 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. North wind around 7 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 52.

This may be overdone, but not even mentioning precipitation at all?????

post-357-0-53120400-1334939807.gif

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Dumbest forecast ever? from the Pittsburgh NWS office for PIT:

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. North wind between 7 and 9 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. North wind around 7 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 52.

This may be overdone, but not even mentioning precipitation at all?????

post-357-0-53120400-1334939807.gif

I just read the forecast discussion and they said they have very low confidence in the forecast for early next week right now with the models showing different solutions. They don't mention anything about snow though. They just mentioned cold with wind and rain if it tracks closer to us. This definitely through me off though.

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whoa BUF does kind of an about face lol. Mentions April 2nd-3rd, 2005 as an analog

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY NOSES SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN ONTARIO ON

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. COOLER AND

DRIER AIR WITH THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE

LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

THE REGION WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY START TO SUNDAY WITH

CHILLY MORNING TEMPS RISING TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES BY

MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS A STRONG

STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND

RETROGRESSES TO NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY

GFS AND ECMWF...THE EC IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS...BUT THE

RESULT IS ABOUT THE SAME.

THIS PATTERN IS ALMOST A FRAME BY FRAME REPLAY OF AN EVENT WHICH

OCCURRED ON THE 2ND AND 3RD OF APRIL 2005. THERE WAS AN 8 INCH

SNOWFALL AT KBUF WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA

RIDGE...AND EVEN TWO FEET OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA AND

NORTHEAST OHIO.

THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIMILAR AMOUNT

OF SNOW IN VERY SIMILAR LOCATIONS. GLANCING AT A COMPARISON OF THE

2005 EVENT AND CURRENT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THE VERTICAL TEMP/DEWPOINT

PROFILE IS NEARLY EXACT WITH THE CURRENT DATA SHOWING EVEN MORE

MOISTURE ALOFT. THE 2005 EVENT HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM

.45 INCH TO .55 INCH...THE CURRENT DATA SHOW PWS AT OR ABOVE .75

INCH. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE COLDER BY A DEGREE OR TWO

SOUTH OF BUFFALO TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

SPEAKING OF MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WRAPPED

ABOUT THIS STORM...QPF FOR CENTRAL NY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL BE

ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 INCHES WITH 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN

NY. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SYR

AND ROC SOUTHWARD ALONG SENECA AND CAYUGA LAKES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW

WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED ACROSS ALLEGANY/WYOMING/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES

WITH SNOW TOTAL EXCEEDING A FOOT...ENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY TO

NORTHERN WINDS AND THE UPLIFT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF THE GENESEE

VALLEY.

EXPECT RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS CENTRAL

TO NORTHERN NY. THE NEAR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL ABSORB THE

RAINFALL AS LONG AS IT IS NOT TOO MUCH TOO FAST...THEN THERE MAY BE

A RISK OF LOW IMPACT AND SHORT LIVED FLOODING.

TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE CHILLY WITH CONTINUED

NORTHERLY WINDS...MID 30S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND THE NORTH

COUNTRY...AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE GENESEE VALLEY

AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DYNAMIC COOLING FROM THE ONSET OF

SNOW WILL LOWER TEMPS EVEN FURTHER.

THICK CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN DURING MONDAY.

EXPECT THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE

NORTH COUNTRY AND CENTRAL NY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW

PRESSURE. COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY

SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND THE 30S

FOR THE GENESEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...IN THE REGION OF

CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF SNOWFALL.

THE POPS WILL FALL FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW

PRESSURE CENTER LIFT NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE...BUT WILL

REMAIN AS A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS WILL BE

IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NY WITH

LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.

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