Burghblizz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah, I think verbatim it's a touch far north and west. This is where historically the Euro then tracks it to Youngstown. That being said, I think most of the other guidance is SE or OTS. Also the GFS ensembles look to be further SE which might indicate a shift that way. I won't pretend to be an expert on whether or not that is likely. But I think these are based on either different initiations or changes resulting from sensitive dependence (the so called butterfly effect). If most of those are showing something more south and east, I would think the operational follows. **maybe** 30 miles south and about 48 hours into the future and we are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm going away too... Sub forum exodus = Mecs for Pittsburgh lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I got it saved. Who knows what the end result will be but this run definitly provided some awesome entertainment lol. Verbatim it would probably be to warm for a lot of us given there is not really a good source for cold air around, but its awesome to see that track and qpf totals! Yeah, the lack of cold air is what concerns me about this too. There seems to be almost no margin for error here for us to get a big snowstorm out of this without temp issues or it just missing us to the east altogether. I think the NWS even mentioned about the lack of cold air in their last discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm going away too... Sub forum exodus = Mecs for Pittsburgh lol. Me too. Mixed emotions. Timing couldn't be worse if we do get the right track. I will be going into colder air and much worse conditions if the storm does come up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Does all the precip on the 18Z fall as snow? I feel like the marginal cold air and +NAO will not help us, while the only thing suppressing the storm is that other system north of Newfoundland. Don't get me wrong those 50/50 storms are highly valuable to large-scale events in the East, but I feel like the majority of the factors disfavor a true SECS/MECS. Taken from Don's thread: Yesterday' date=' I noted that historic climatology associated with La Niña winters argues against a KU-type snowstorm this coming weekend. Since 1950, when daily recordkeeping concerning the AO commenced, there has been only one KU snowstorm during La Niña conditions with an AO > 0: the January 24-26, 2000 storm. A more localized snow event cannot be ruled out, but such an outcome is not assured. So chances are damn close to nille for something shown here. However, you can make the argument that other historical precedent is on our side--this is president's day weekend coming up, and it certainly (likely not coincidentally) appears to be a favorite time for siginificant snowstorms to manifest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00Z GFS went back the other direction. Barely gives us anything. Hopefully next run it comes back to the west a little. All over the place these models are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00Z GFS went back the other direction. Barely gives us anything. Hopefully next run it comes back to the west a little. All over the place these models are right now. I think it did with all the ensembles were hinting....and It likely gives us a few inches.....with the pretty blue colors not too far to the south and east. Theoretically, not a bad place to be 3-4 days out on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00Z GFS went back the other direction. Barely gives us anything. Hopefully next run it comes back to the west a little. All over the place these models are right now. Yeah, i figured that might happen. I am glad I did not lose any sleep over it. 6z is even further SE so who knows, we could end up with partly cloudy skies Sunday. Given all the players on the field I would expect things may not be totally resolved until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No matter how this ends up tracking, and it doesn't look very good for us right now, I still think lack of cold air is going to be a problem for a lot of areas to support a decent snow out of this. Someone is going to have to be in the perfect spot to get all snow, imo. Maybe the mountains won't have to worry because of elevation, if it tracks well for those areas to get hit. The I-95 folks are probably very happy right now, but a lot of them may have some temp issues themselves with this. Still will be an interesting few days tracking this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No matter how this ends up tracking, and it doesn't look very good for us right now, I still think lack of cold air is going to be a problem for a lot of areas to support a decent snow out of this. Someone is going to have to be in the perfect spot to get all snow, imo. Maybe the mountains won't have to worry because of elevation, if it tracks well for those areas to get hit. The I-95 folks are probably very happy right now, but a lot of them may have some temp issues themselves with this. Still will be an interesting few days tracking this one. Agreed, I would have taken my chances with a big wound up low cutting to our east with heavy precip rates, but if this is going to be another one of those light to medium snow events that take place during the daylight hours with marginal temps... well I don't mind missing out completely. Given the pattern going forward there are more storms on the map, but still not much cold air so even if we did manage to get 2-3 inches it would be gone pretty quickly anyways. Solutions aren't set in stone yet, but given the GFS losing the early phase (in agreement with the Euro) this probably won't be far enough North to give us much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Still plenty of time guys, lets just let this thing play out. This is easily our best chance at a big storm all year, not saying much but hey. It just seems crazy to me that a lp of that strength would just shoot east like that, especially with a + nao. Wishful thinking 101... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrsH Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Winter, where are you? :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Still plenty of time guys, lets just let this thing play out. This is easily our best chance at a big storm all year, not saying much but hey. It just seems crazy to me that a lp of that strength would just shoot east like that, especially with a + nao. Wishful thinking 101... Still time for it to come north, or go further south for sure. Problem now is that piece of energy from the northern stream that was phasing with the southern stream and blowing this thing up is now running out a head and helping to creat confluence. We need that to be faster / futher north / weaker, and it would help if one of the other pieces could phase to help strengthen the southern stream a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 00Z NAM brings it back toward us. Basically has us on the northern fringe of the precip. If somehow we can just bump that a little further north, we'd be back in the game. 00Z GFS will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 00Z NAM brings it back toward us. Basically has us on the northern fringe of the precip. If somehow we can just bump that a little further north, we'd be back in the game. 00Z GFS will be interesting. If we can get that precip field to expand anouther 50-75 miles north it would get us into the heavier stuff. Will be interesting to see if all the models start to go further North like the NAM. NAM definitly looks to have more northern stream interaction. Hopefully that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Still looking like a near miss. GFS still struggling to get precip past the m/d line. Where is the PA detour avatar when you need it?! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Still looking like a near miss. GFS still struggling to get precip past the m/d line. Where is the PA detour avatar when you need it?! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 IMO, the game has just begun. This system will be tracked for the next two days, and only then will we have a solution. I know that's a Mr obvious statement, but I really feel it applies to the weekend storm. BTW made a rare appearance at the club tonight, hard to believe I did this almost every night ten years ago. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 IMO, the game has just begun. This system will be tracked for the next two days, and only then will we have a solution. I know that's a Mr obvious statement, but I really feel it applies to the weekend storm. BTW made a rare appearance at the club tonight, hard to believe I did this almost every night ten years ago. LOL You picked a good night for it, sometimes a night out helps make the 0z model guidance look better haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If you guys want to know how close we are with this storm, just check out Morgantown's forecast for Sunday. Their forecast is for snow likely (70%), while our forecast is partly sunny. So close yet so far away it seems! 18z NAM is rolling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 If you guys want to know how close we are with this storm, just check out Morgantown's forecast for Sunday. Their forecast is for snow likely (70%), while our forecast is partly sunny. So close yet so far away it seems! 18z NAM is rolling right now. I will be traveling north this weekend so I will see a little snow. Maybe we can get our big storm in the next couple weeks or so. I am getting sooo ready for Spring. Maybe because I am getting older. I don't know. I would prefer one more 5+ inch snowfall and then bring on the warmer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am getting sooo ready for Spring. Maybe because I am getting older. I don't know. I would prefer one 12+ inch snowfall and then bring on the warmer weather. I know how you feel...... but.with one slight variation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I feel like winter is done, seemingly with this system being our last chance. It appears there is quite a warmup coming in the next few weeks, especially so after March 1st. Obviously that could change, but given how winter has gone in general, I don't have a lot of faith in something suddenly happening. It seems winter was either north or south of us here this year, and I can't imagine we got much more than 6" on the season. For me personally, come March I don't give much attention to "winter" anymore. For me winter is the end of November through February. Come spring I look forward to warmer weather and don't much care for snow in March or April, especially since it doesn't stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Dispite the current outlook, still very interesting IMO. My untrained eye sees three features. The one dropping into North Dakota, the one in northern Mexico, and the one in Quebec. The Quebec squashing feature seems to be lifting out decently, well see. The feature in N.D. seems to be moving more south than east, so mabey it can hook up with the Mexico feature. With these types of storms, I just look mainly at the WV loop, and see where the controlling features are, and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think we can pretty much throw in the towel on this one and move on. The models have gone even further south and they all seem to be in pretty good agreement now. I never really felt good about this one, but I was holding out hope that maybe we could get lucky and get a bit of a northern trend to give us something. Didn't happen unfortunately. Looks like southern WV and parts of VA may actually see the most out of this. The big cities to the east all look like they're going to be left out as well. Maybe DC gets a minor accumulation but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS has been showing a potential for mid to late next week. Something to track I guess. It looks different on every run, probably because of all the pieces of energy in the flow so who knows what may come of that. The more years I do this, I find I get enjoyment out of tracking a system even if it ends up not affecting us, whereas when I first started I was frustrated at every miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Why couldn't this be in Pittsburgh??!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Hmmmm. The forecast is for showers likely today. I'm getting some snow in West Mifflin right now. Go figure. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madtam Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Big flakes coming down right now in Seven Fields/Cranberry area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Snowing here in Monroeville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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