cannon_fodder Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I just found out I have to drive from Buffalo through Erie on my way to Cleveland this Wednesday with a return Thursday. Is there enough confidence to suggest a preferred time to hit Erie and avoid any hazardous driving conditions on both days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro continuing it's weekend trolling on a more amplfied system. Snow to wintry mix event for AOO/UNV, all snow for IPT, MDT looks to be mostly rain. GFS keeps most stuff with this system south for now, and thats not a bad thing at this range haha. I seriously would keep an eye out on this system, especially our more northern folks.. as there may be just enough cold left before it gets run out in the wake of this one. Could be one of those classic finally see the snow but it melts the next day type deals. EDIT: I didn't realize i was still viewing the Pitt thread when I posted this haha. Euro storm for the weekend looks to be primarily a rain event for the Pit area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1150 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012 ...GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... .LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073- 075-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-180100- /O.EXB.KPBZ.WI.Y.0002.120117T1700Z-120118T0600Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER- ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE- HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE... MARTINS FERRY...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE... SHADYSIDE...BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...NEW CASTLE... ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS... AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING... FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...WASHINGTON... CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA... MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON... JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE... POINT MARION...TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE... NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN 1150 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * HAZARDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST GUSTS. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Its 53 out and I'm getting sleet mixing in with the rain where I'm at. Not hail, but little sleet pellets. Interesting. The temp was 52 and the dewpoint was 45 at KAGC at 1pm today....the 850 mb temp at 12Z was +6 C.....I can fathom no way that you were seeing frozen precip. I'm very curious what you were seeing...but I really have no explaination without seeing it myself. Batten down the hatches....the front over the next hour means business....gusts have been in the 50-60mph across all of eastern Ohio. A few flurries overnight...with wet surfaces freezing, if the wind doesn't dry everything off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The temp was 52 and the dewpoint was 45 at KAGC at 1pm today....the 850 mb temp at 12Z was +6 C.....I can fathom no way that you were seeing frozen precip. I'm very curious what you were seeing...but I really have no explaination without seeing it myself. Batten down the hatches....the front over the next hour means business....gusts have been in the 50-60mph across all of eastern Ohio. A few flurries overnight...with wet surfaces freezing, if the wind doesn't dry everything off. Believe me, I thought it was odd too, but that's what I saw. Not making it up. When I was sitting in my truck eating lunch today, I was watching them bounce off of my windshield and hood. You can tell when sleet hits your vehicle because it makes a louder sound than a raindrop. It didn't last long. I should have tried to take a picture of it, although I don't know how it would have turned out on my camera phone. Strange indeed for that warm of a surface temp. Can't explain it. Maybe put it in the same category as a UFO sighting then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Believe me, I thought it was odd too, but that's what I saw. Not making it up. When I was sitting in my truck eating lunch today, I was watching them bounce off of my windshield and hood. You can tell when sleet hits your vehicle because it makes a louder sound than a raindrop. It didn't last long. I should have tried to take a picture of it, although I don't know how it would have turned out on my camera phone. Strange indeed for that warm of a surface temp. Can't explain it. Maybe put it in the same category as a UFO sighting then. Well condsidering it's coming from you and not Therusselwxman or some of our more notorious posters, thats why I'm trying to think of a plausible explination. With that high dewpoint/relatively saturated surface enviroment....and I checked this am's sounding (12Z)....the freezing level was about 7500 ft....and it may have been higher at 1pm. The precipitation was general stratiform in the afternoon, so that rules out hail...the convective showers didn't hit until the front this evening....oh well...to the little part of met that is left in me, it's driving me nuts trying to figure this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well condsidering it's coming from you and not Therusselwxman or some of our more notorious posters, thats why I'm trying to think of a plausible explination. With that high dewpoint/relatively saturated surface enviroment....and I checked this am's sounding (12Z)....the freezing level was about 7500 ft....and it may have been higher at 1pm. The precipitation was general stratiform in the afternoon, so that rules out hail...the convective showers didn't hit until the front this evening....oh well...to the little part of met that is left in me, it's driving me nuts trying to figure this out. I don't know. Maybe it's possible that it was so windy at the time it was just rain hitting my truck hard and bouncing off like sleet would. I'll just go with that explanation and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I don't know. Maybe it's possible that it was so windy at the time it was just rain hitting my truck hard and bouncing off like sleet would. I'll just go with that explanation and move on. No offense, but I was trying to scientifically figure it out, because it makes no sense. I think I'm better off not posting....so I think that's what I'll do from now on...just sit back and read...enjoy your wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No offense, but I was trying to scientifically figure it out, because it makes no sense. I think I'm better off not posting....so I think that's what I'll do from now on...just sit back and read...enjoy your wx. Nah....we need the more educated, scientific stuff around here too. We are traditionally a bit starved for it, relatively speaking. Can't believe it's Jan 18th already. The below average snow had to happen sooner or later....but I would at least like a couple nice events to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Further proof of the slim pickin's this winter, how 'bout some wind reports from tonight... NOUS41 KPBZ 180251 PNSPBZ MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-180600- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 940 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012 ...WIND OBSERVATIONS... BELOW IS A TABLE DETAILING WIND INFORMATION FOR THE PAST 15 HOURS. LOCATION HIGHEST OB TIME WIND PEAK WIND OR AND OB TIME PEAK OB TIME GUST PENNSYLVANIA ...ALLEGHENY COUNTY... PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL 37 MPH / 641 PM 47 MPH / 640 PM ALLEGHENY COUNTY AIRPORT 31 MPH / 753 PM 46 MPH / 744 PM ...BEAVER COUNTY... BEAVER FALLS 40 MPH / 747 PM ...BUTLER COUNTY... BUTLER 28 MPH / 755 PM 40 MPH / 755 PM ...WASHINGTON COUNTY... WASHINGTON PA 22 MPH / 755 PM 33 MPH / 855 PM ...WESTMORELAND COUNTY... LATROBE 49 MPH / 830 PM ...INDIANA COUNTY... INDIANA 30 MPH / 735 PM 41 MPH / 855 PM ...LAWRENCE... NEW CASTLE 31 MPH / 556 PM 46 MPH / 729 PM ...VENANGO COUNTY... FRANKLIN 25 MPH / 655 PM 41 MPH / 755 PM ...JEFFERSON COUNTY... DUBOIS 35 MPH / 719 PM 53 MPH / 809 PM WEST VIRGINIA ...OHIO COUNTY... WHEELING 28 MPH / 622 PM 47 MPH / 717 PM ...MONONGALIA COUNTY... MORGANTOWN 17 MPH / 853 PM 33 MPH / 834 PM OHIO ...MUSKINGUM COUNTY... ZANESVILLE 28 MPH / 508 PM 44 MPH / 459 PM ...TUSCARAWAS COUNTY... NEW PHILADELPHIA 23 MPH / 553 PM 46 MPH / 512 PM MARYLAND ...GARRETT COUNTY... MCHENRY 43 MPH / 825 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No offense, but I was trying to scientifically figure it out, because it makes no sense. I think I'm better off not posting....so I think that's what I'll do from now on...just sit back and read...enjoy your wx. By all means, post. I welcome your explanation or anyone else's. I don't think anywhere in my posts I was suggesting that you shouldn't. Believe me, I found it weird too. It's possible I could've just been seeing something that wasn't there. Wouldn't be the first time with my great eyesight. Wasn't trying to offend you or suggest anything with my last post. I'm not quite sure how or why you took it that way. I was basically joking around about it in my previous post, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I've got some pretty decent snow showers moving through the south hills this morning. I have a coating so far. Be careful driving this morning if you get caught in a band. Lays down a coating rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS and NAM both look like a maybe 1-2 inch possibly even 2-3 inches overnight Thursday into Friday. GFS is colder for Saturday which would imply more of a mix, while the NAM looks like mainly rain with maybe some brief frza to start. Hopefully things don't trend towards a more icey outcome for Saturday but the potential is there for at least some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Is torn n frayed-rants?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS and NAM both look like a maybe 1-2 inch possibly even 2-3 inches overnight Thursday into Friday. GFS is colder for Saturday which would imply more of a mix, while the NAM looks like mainly rain with maybe some brief frza to start. Hopefully things don't trend towards a more icey outcome for Saturday but the potential is there for at least some. Yeah, there's a pretty big difference in temperatures between the two models for Saturday. I don't want the GFS solution at this point, because I think it would mean a possibility of ice like you mentioned. I'll take plain old rain over ice any day. It'll be interesting to see which one of the two ends up budging on this as we get closer, or maybe we end up somewhere in the middle of the two and still get mostly rain Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Is torn n frayed-rants?... Nah, probably just some guy who got burned out in the industry, and is looking for a new start. I say give him a pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sorry BlackN'GoldRules....my identity is in my member title....CoraopolisWx got it right....I just need to take a break...I'm a burned out met that is looking for a career change and taking it out on this forum is not the right thing to do. I have mostly lost my passion for wx.....but everynow and then I get pulled back in. I need to come back when I'm in a much better situation and state of mind. I'm not into board drama and sorry if I was a cause of some here. I do apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sorry BlackN'GoldRules....my identity is in my member title....CoraopolisWx got it right....I just need to take a break...I'm a burned out met that is looking for a career change and taking it out on this forum is not the right thing to do. I have mostly lost my passion for wx.....but everynow and then I get pulled back in. I need to come back when I'm in a much better situation and state of mind. I'm not into board drama and sorry if I was a cause of some here. I do apologize. No problem. I remember your posts in the past. Very informative. We don't get to much met experience in this Pittsburgh thread and I am just a weather nut like most others looking for more information and discussion. Don't be a stranger however we need more storms to get more to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sorry BlackN'GoldRules....my identity is in my member title....CoraopolisWx got it right....I just need to take a break...I'm a burned out met that is looking for a career change and taking it out on this forum is not the right thing to do. I have mostly lost my passion for wx.....but everynow and then I get pulled back in. I need to come back when I'm in a much better situation and state of mind. I'm not into board drama and sorry if I was a cause of some here. I do apologize. It's OK man, don't worry about it. Hope things work out for you in your search for a different career. Believe me, I know what it's like to be burned out doing what I do for a living. It can take a lot out of you. Anyway, no hard feelings. Post some more of your thoughts and ideas here in the future when weather becomes an enjoyable hobby to you again. We'll always welcome an expert's ideas here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like things are going to get interesting around here the next few days. Some snow tomorrow night. Freezing rain now in the forecast Friday night into Saturday. Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. West wind at 7 mph becoming south. Thursday: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. South wind between 11 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 17. West wind between 8 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday: A slight chance of snow showers before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. West wind around 7 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night: A chance of snow before 4am, then freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. East wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday: Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 2pm, then a chance of rain between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet after 5pm. High near 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday Night: A chance of snow before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z GFS is a little warmer than the 12z solution, but still gives us a decent amount of frozen precip at the onset. 18z NAM basically almost makes this an all rain event. Maybe just a very brief period of frozen precip at the start according to the NAM. Of course, these are just the 18z maps. We'll see what the 0z will show. I have to work very early Saturday morning, so I really don't want to see any ice out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0z GFS keeps us all frozen on Saturday. 0z NAM is a little colder than previous runs but still mostly rain. The NAM gives us more snow than the GFS for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 0z GFS keeps us all frozen on Saturday. 0z NAM is a little colder than previous runs but still mostly rain. GFS trending our way. We need the 12Z NAM to come in a little colder and the GFS to hold serve. I would like some snow. No ice please. Would especially be nice for a Friday night and Saturday with no work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS trending our way. We need the 12Z NAM to come in a little colder and the GFS to hold serve. I would like some snow. No ice please. Would especially be nice for a Friday night and Saturday with no work. I have to work early Saturday so I'm really hoping for no ice. Looking at the GFS keeping us frozen, and the position of the low, freezing rain is a definite possibilty according to the GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12Z NAM still looks good for about 2-3 inches of snow starting this afternoon. (1pm) Ratios are pretty high during the bulk (nearly 20:1) so it should be a fluffly snow. 120119/2000Z 20 22013KT 31.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 12:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 120119/2100Z 21 22011KT 30.2F SNOW 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 120119/2200Z 22 23009KT 29.8F SNOW 16:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 120119/2300Z 23 24007KT 29.7F SNOW 22:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 18:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 120120/0000Z 24 26007KT 29.7F SNOW 21:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 19:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120120/0100Z 25 28008KT 29.7F SNOW 19:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 19:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 120120/0200Z 26 29009KT 28.9F SNOW 20:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 19:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0 120120/0300Z 27 31009KT 27.9F SNOW 21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 19:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0 120120/0400Z 28 32009KT 25.7F SNOW 18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 19:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0 120120/0500Z 29 32008KT 23.4F SNOW 21:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 19:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0 For Saturday morning NAM still warmer, looks to have the system further north so we get some zr over night but should be plain rain by 6am if the NAM is to be believed. I have to be out early Saturday, so I am hoping for either rain or snow, nothing in between lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I have to work early Saturday so I'm really hoping for no ice. Looking at the GFS keeping us frozen, and the position of the low, freezing rain is a definite possibilty according to the GFS run. Yeah....and the Canadian seems to have the low tucked up a little close which would put us in the battleground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah....and the Canadian seems to have the low tucked up a little close which would put us in the battleground. As per today's 12z RGEM, anyone living north of I-70 stays frozen throughout the event. Would probably be a problem for bridge traffic in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 As per today's 12z RGEM, anyone living north of I-70 stays frozen throughout the event. Would probably be a problem for bridge traffic in the metro area. Just from past experience, the warm air always seems to be underdone for the SW portion. Ive seen it a 100 times when we are forcaseted to get snow, and it ends up being sleet or just plain rain. Once you make it into Butler and Armstrong counties though the cold seems to hold on a bit more. This system may be different though in that it is not a really woundup and it just a wave moving east to west essentially. Still haven't seen a flake of snow in Greensburg yet for todays event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just from past experience, the warm air always seems to be underdone for the SW portion. Ive seen it a 100 times when we are forcaseted to get snow, and it ends up being sleet or just plain rain. Once you make it into Butler and Armstrong counties though the cold seems to hold on a bit more. This system may be different though in that it is not a really woundup and it just a wave moving east to west essentially. Still haven't seen a flake of snow in Greensburg yet for todays event. So true....except with the strength (or lack thereof) this this system, I'm not sure if there will be as much warm air advecting in. Starting to flurry in town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 So true....except with the strength (or lack thereof) this this system, I'm not sure if there will be as much warm air advecting in. Starting to flurry in town Very light snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.