nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't get why no high wind watch if the advisory says 55mph gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 They are really having a debate out there...I can't remember a late afternoon AFD ever coming out so late.... Advisory/warning package up but still no AFD and even with some of our biggest storms the AFD never comes out this late.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z GFS a tick warmer than 12z....0C 850 line looks just north of the City at 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't get why no high wind watch if the advisory says 55mph gust Warning criteria is 58 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Warning criteria is 58 mph. Oh thought it was 55 thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Holy mother of Halloween - look at the revised snowfall map from Upton - lots more than originally forecast, including 2-5" in NYC. C'mon snow! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z GFS a tick warmer than 12z....0C 850 line looks just north of the City at 27. The gfs has been been ticking upwards for the past few runs, and so has the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah, if you also cut NAM QPF some then you get my expectations. NAM RAW with 10:1 is a foot or so back home. Cut the ratios in half and then cut the snow QPF in half and you get the 2-4 I'm expecting. Of course, high bust potential all the way around, but climo must take effect SOMEWHERE... so I put it into the ratios. And of course the QPF adjustment is just because its the NAM Also, given that no model is forecasting outright freezing temps at the surface, even the cold NAM, it seems likely that ratios will be unusually low. And of course, it might have been cold today by October standards, but it was warm by snowstorm standards. I fully expect a lot of obs along I-95 to be +SN at 33 over 33 tomorrow late aft/eve. I agree for high bust potential. Forecasting rain changing to snow events in my experience have always very challenging and more times than not disappointing for snow enthusiasts. Two issues that have me against anything significant at Central Park, NYC is ground temperatures and the mild sea surface temperature off the NYC coast. Anyway, I'd love to be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The gfs has been been ticking upwards for the past few runs, and so has the NAM. Still has some solid backend snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 shut it please...don't bring back nightmares... How is Thanksgiving and October 30th relevent? Add in October 10, 1979 and October 19, 1972 and you have the makings of a truly not good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The heavy rain/flooding aspect of this system is really being underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Add in October 10, 1979 and October 19, 1972 and you have the makings of a truly not good pattern. neither were ninas two out of my three top analogs (56-57, 62-63, 08-09) had October events... it isn't a bad sign, and this storm doesn't really have any sort of precedent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 These H7 low tracks and orientation definitely seems to favor the areas further west. But it's nice to see that the GFS is spitting out higher QPF numbers - it's catching on to the insane dynamics that this system will have. The PVA is maximized at our latitudes, that's always good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 neither were ninas two out of my three top analogs (56-57, 62-63, 08-09) had October events... it isn't a bad sign, and this storm doesn't really have any sort of precedent There was also an early October snow inland in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 neither were ninas two out of my three top analogs (56-57, 62-63, 08-09) had October events... it isn't a bad sign, and this storm doesn't really have any sort of precedent 1979 was a cold-neutral. Should have been a perfect winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 These H7 low tracks and orientation definitely seems to favor the areas further west. But it's nice to see that the GFS is spitting out higher QPF numbers - it's catching on to the insane dynamics that this system will have. The PVA is maximized at our latitudes, that's always good to see. Yeah the H7 low track is pretty unfavorable for I-95 until about 00z-03z, when it's finally to our east. Looks to me like the final 2-4 hours of the storm will feature the transition to accumulating snow for most of us; the timing for that backend snow is pretty good, occurring around 03z tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The PVA on the GFS between 27 and 33 hours is tremendous! This tends to favor lots of upward vertical motion, and the fact that it migrates eastward with time greatly supports the notion of initially having the strongest banding in E PA and NW Jersey, and then having it pivot eastward and east northeastward during the evening hours. Not a bad place to be! Kind of similar to 1/26/11 in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Snowing in western VA (I-64 near Covington, VA). Bring it. http://trafficland.com/city/SHD/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Still has some solid backend snow Yeah we do actually get 3-6 hours of heavy, probably accumulating snow, obviously those who transition faster and see heavy snow longer get higher accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hmm the latest GFS is a touch weaker with the surface low... the second run in a row to slightly weaken this feature. I think the reason for the subtle changes is how the energy with Rina is robbing the moisture transport in the Atlantic further north. Thus, totals are slightly reduced and the surface low is weaker with less latent heat to play with for cyclogenesis. The feature is real, despite Rita being a remnant low, because its convection has continued to fire up to the NE and is now crossing the Florida coastline. This may be the deciding factor between a crippling snowstorm and a more manageable one. I wouldn't be surprised if precipitation is scaled back further in later model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC is 45/31 at 6PM NWS forecast low is 42... that is going to (hopefully) bust rather high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC is 45/31 at 6PM NWS forecast low is 42... that is going to (hopefully) bust rather high knyc will easily drop into the upper 30s I would think. Clear skies with a dewpoint that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC is 45/31 at 6PM NWS forecast low is 42... that is going to (hopefully) bust rather high We've already got a pretty thick overcast overhead, and with no precip overnight, there's not much reason to fall below 42. Tonight's temps don't have any bearing on temps during the storm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We've already got a pretty thick overcast overhead, and with no precip overnight, there's not much reason to fall below 42. Tonight's temps don't have any bearing on temps during the storm either. It isn't a thick overcast in NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The gfs is a tale of two cities, the slp track which is fine and then the mid-level low tracks which are initially terrible for NYC metro but reform and gives us the deform. Watch the progression of the storm on ewall regional. http://www.meteo.psu...vneastloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Snow. that has increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 beautfil shot of the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 beautfil shot of the rgem. On my phone how's it look for metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It isn't a thick overcast in NYC... It will be soon; we're OVC here in the PHL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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