Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like they bumped up the lows a few degrees. Most areas don't go below 34 even at night, but potential hard freeze Sunday night. Upton calling for 3"-5" for me in Astoria: Saturday Night: Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow. Low around 36. Windy, with a north wind between 26 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Simply amazing we're talking about deform bands before Halloween. Historic situation unfolding here. The fact that it's never happened before in October means it's basically a neutral signal for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Definitely could be some surprises. Before 2/25/10, most NYC predictions were for maybe around 6-8" or so. Central Park ended up with 22". Same with 1/27 last year, 12/25/02, and so on. I think one or two locations well up in the NJ/SE NY mountains and hills could see 18-20". Hopefully they have generators on hand in the hardest hit areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Per the 18Z NAM New Brunswick gets 1.6" QPF as snow starting at 16Z () ... even with a modest 8:1 ratio that is 12.8" (with it forecast 9" to accumulate). lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Simply amazing we're talking about deform bands before Halloween. Historic situation unfolding here. The fact that it's never happened before in October means it's basically a neutral signal for the winter. It snowed in NYC Thanksgiving 1989, rest of winter.... practically no snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Uptons update really made people a lot more jolly on this page ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 we like you more this way then "NAM Bust, its not snowing" LOl-definitely on board with this one...just bummed we're not on the eve of Thanksgiving instead of halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It snowed in NYC Thanksgiving 1989, rest of winter.... practically no snowfall. Didn't it snow in late november in late November '95? Not that I'm saying this season is anything like that... But this storm as Isotherm pointed out has no predictive value... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks for the cool water vapor imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It snowed in NYC Thanksgiving 1989, rest of winter.... practically no snowfall. shut it please...don't bring back nightmares... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It snowed in NYC Thanksgiving 1989, rest of winter.... practically no snowfall. How is Thanksgiving and October 30th relevent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's 5 good NAM and Euro runs in a row. Hard to argue with them inside 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Per the 18Z NAM New Brunswick gets 1.6" QPF as snow starting at 16Z () ... even with a modest 8:1 ratio that is 12.8" (with it forecast 9" to accumulate). lol. Honestly, along I-95, I think its gonna be really hard to get a much higher ratio than 5:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 540 refers to thickness, not temperature. There are any number of temperature profiles between 500mb and 1000mb that could lead to a thickness of 540 decameters. Yeah thats what i meant to get to. Thickness is a function of temperature and my point was that for the beginning of the storm, most places are barely above 540, so its not like were torching at the midlevels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 shut it please...don't bring back nightmares... it's really hard to put this into perspective since it has never happened before..maybe when Ben Franklin was walking the earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's 5 good NAM and Euro runs in a row. Hard to argue with them inside 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Honestly, along I-95, I think its gonna be really hard to get a much higher ratio than 5:1. Oh, really? I knew 10:1 was too high so I just guestimated and went with 8:1. If you think 5:1, then it is forecasting 5.4" for Newark and almost 6" at New Brunswick. Still much higher than I'm expecting but pretty much the high-end of 'reasonable'. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Honestly, along I-95, I think its gonna be really hard to get a much higher ratio than 5:1. Gotta think there is going to be a lot of power outages tomorrow night with snow at 5:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z NAM critical thickness, easy to see them crash between 18z-0z tomorrow RED: 1000-700mb = 2840mCYAN: 850-700mb = 1540mYELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300mPURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mPURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100mWHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400mBLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How is Thanksgiving and October 30th relevent? Early snowfalls correlated, or lack thereof to the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The early 6:1 phase back in 2006 really hammered Buffalo. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/storm101206.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It may be warranted for Upton to issue a Winter Storm Watch for NYC proper based on the following rationale: 1) Upton's point-and-click forecast for Manhattan depicts 3-5" of snow after the changeover. 2) Upton mentioned last night that the threshold requirement for WSWs was lowered to 4" from 6" for this event. 3) This storm will down a lot of trees and create power outages due to the plastering of the wet snow on the leaves and the wind. 4) This is a very anomalous pre-winter storm; so many people may be unprepared for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Oh, really? I knew 10:1 was too high so I just guestimated and went with 8:1. If you think 5:1, then it is forecasting 5.4" for Newark and almost 6" at New Brunswick. Still much higher than I'm expecting but pretty much the high-end of 'reasonable'. . . Yeah, if you also cut NAM QPF some then you get my expectations. NAM RAW with 10:1 is a foot or so back home. Cut the ratios in half and then cut the snow QPF in half and you get the 2-4 I'm expecting. Of course, high bust potential all the way around, but climo must take effect SOMEWHERE... so I put it into the ratios. And of course the QPF adjustment is just because its the NAM Also, given that no model is forecasting outright freezing temps at the surface, even the cold NAM, it seems likely that ratios will be unusually low. And of course, it might have been cold today by October standards, but it was warm by snowstorm standards. I fully expect a lot of obs along I-95 to be +SN at 33 over 33 tomorrow late aft/eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah, if you also cut NAM QPF some then you get my expectations. NAM RAW with 10:1 is a foot or so back home. Cut the ratios in half and then cut the snow QPF in half and you get the 2-4 I'm expecting. Of course, high bust potential all the way around, but climo must take effect SOMEWHERE... so I put it into the ratios. And of course the QPF adjustment is just because its the NAM Also, given that no model is forecasting outright freezing temps at the surface, even the cold NAM, it seems likely that ratios will be unusually low. And of course, it might have been cold today by October standards, but it was warm by snowstorm standards. I fully expect a lot of obs along I-95 to be +SN at 33 over 33 tomorrow late aft/eve. You makin the trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Climate... a Nor'easter on October 27 and 28 of 2008 dropped double digit snows over the higher terrain of northwest New Jersey as well as in the Poconos. 17 inches of snow fell in Tobyhanna in Monroe County tieing an all time early record snowfall. 14 inches of snow fell at High Point State Park in Sussex County in northwest New Jersey, the current early and October snowfall record. While no snow measured in Allentown and Philadelphia with this event, a band of two to four inch snows fell in Montgomery and Bucks counties. The last time measurable snow fell in October at the official measuring site for Philadelphia was 2.1 on October 10, 1979. Its also the monthly record. The last time measurable snow fell in October in Allentown was 1.0 inch on October 10, 1979. The highest Allentown October monthly snowfall record is 2.2 inches in 1925 and that fell all on October 31st. The last October measurable snow in Wilmington was on October 10 1979 when 2.5 inches fell. The October monthly record is 3.0 inches in 1925. Atlantic City has never had more than a trace of snow in October, the last time it snowed in October was on October 28, 2008. Mount Holly AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You makin the trip? Probably... 18Z GFS is starting to roll out now. Will make a final call as soon as it out to 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY541 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...AN EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM IS LIKELY FOR THE LOWER HUDSONVALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...CTZ011-NJZ006-NYZ072>075-176>178-290545-/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0012.111029T1200Z-111030T0800Z/SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-HUDSON-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-541 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AMEDT SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY FOR WET SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AMEDT SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY...HUDSON COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY.* HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...LOWER 40S...FALLING INTO THE MID 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.* VISIBILITIES..LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES.* TIMING...RAIN DEVELOPS SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION THEN...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW LATER SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE AT NIGHT.* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It may be warranted for Upton to issue a Winter Storm Watch for NYC proper based on the following rationale: 1) Upton's point-and-click forecast for Manhattan depicts 3-5" of snow after the changeover. 2) Upton mentioned last night that the threshold requirement for WSWs was lowered to 4" from 6" for this event. 3) This storm will down a lot of trees and create power outages due to the plastering of the wet snow on the leaves and the wind. 4) This is a very anomalous pre-winter storm; so many people may be unprepared for it. They are really having a debate out there...I can't remember a late afternoon AFD ever coming out so late.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It may be warranted for Upton to issue a Winter Storm Watch for NYC proper based on the following rationale: 1) Upton's point-and-click forecast for Manhattan depicts 3-5" of snow after the changeover. 2) Upton mentioned last night that the threshold requirement for WSWs was lowered to 4" from 6" for this event. 3) This storm will down a lot of trees and create power outages due to the plastering of the wet snow on the leaves and the wind. 4) This is a very anomalous pre-winter storm; so many people may be unprepared for it. Advisory just issued saying 2-4'' for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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