supermeh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Coastal Flood Advisory now. Upton is really stringing everything along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 detailed 18z NAM (aka proof that run after run it's still mostly snow for NYC after the first few hours, and anyone from Manhattan/the BX on NW really shouldn't worry that much because 4" is amazing in October regardless) hr 24 (note that only .5 has fallen yet NYC is at 34-35, which is cold enough for snow if the QPF is heavy and 850s are -4) hr 27--at this point we are seeing rates of 2"/hr in the city, although the stickage is considerably less hr 30--deform band right over the city with rates of 2"+ hr, 850s are -6... this is unquestionably accumulating snow hr 33--oh look, NYC special, lingering band right over the city while temps are at freezing and 850s are, again, -6 POINT BEING: STOP FREAKING OUT ABOUT MINOR CHANGES anyone directly along the ocean is likely screwed but Manhattan has done remarkably well in most set-ups the past decade +, even in supposedly 'marginal' events which this will surely be. I would be very worried if I was near JFK and even as you get close to LGA, but it's funny how most of the negative analysis for NYC is coming from posters from Upstate (rockland county etc where ever those places are) the NAM as-is is a major hit for the city. it isn't going to be a crippling storm, but the Park will get 4" of glop. BE HAPPY, IT IS OCTOBER. Also: there is no way that EWR and NYC have a differential of more than an inch or two. any posters from suburbs within 25 miles of the city hoping for 6"+ are being ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 They don't seem to go with High Wind Watches that often unless confidence is high that we are going to see 50mph or greater...My guess is they'll go with Wind Advisories. I meant the entire area including 5boros sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Point and Click has 3-5 inches here in the NW Bronx... That's just updated. Mighty, mighty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the NAM as-is is a major hit for the city. it isn't going to be a crippling storm, but the Park will get 4" of glop. BE HAPPY, IT IS OCTOBER. Also: there is no way that EWR and NYC have a differential of more than an inch or two. any posters from suburbs within 25 miles of the city hoping for 6"+ are being ridiculous. Higher points in Westchester could easily see 6"+ in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 detailed 18z NAM (aka proof that run after run it's still mostly snow for NYC after the first few hours, and anyone from Manhattan/the BX on NW really shouldn't worry that much because 4" is amazing in October regardless) hr 24 (note that only .5 has fallen yet NYC is at 34-35, which is cold enough for snow if the QPF is heavy and 850s are -4) hr 27--at this point we are seeing rates of 2"/hr in the city, although the stickage is considerably less hr 30--deform band right over the city with rates of 2"+ hr, 850s are -6... this is unquestionably accumulating snow hr 33--oh look, NYC special, lingering band right over the city while temps are at freezing and 850s are, again, -6 POINT BEING: STOP FREAKING OUT ABOUT MINOR CHANGES anyone directly along the ocean is likely screwed but Manhattan has done remarkably well in most set-ups the past decade +, even in supposedly 'marginal' events which this will surely be. I would be very worried if I was near JFK and even as you get close to LGA, but it's funny how most of the negative analysis for NYC is coming from posters from Upstate (rockland county etc where ever those places are) the NAM as-is is a major hit for the city. it isn't going to be a crippling storm, but the Park will get 4" of glop. BE HAPPY, IT IS OCTOBER. Also: there is no way that EWR and NYC have a differential of more than an inch or two. any posters from suburbs within 25 miles of the city hoping for 6"+ are being ridiculous. Well done, the NAM really is a pretty good solution for the city. This is the ultimate nowcast situation to see exactly where the deform band is, and the correlation between rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 They have me @ 2-4 in bk Saturday Night: Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow. Low around 35. Windy, with a north wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upstate NY is irrelevant to me That's not upstate, that's the 25 mile radius you are talking about. My house is less than 10 miles from the Bronx border and about 25 miles from Central Park. I think the dewpoints in the mid 20s and track of the H7 and H85 lows argue that this is mainly a snow event for the NW suburbs. There are a good number of people who live at 300-400' elevation in southern Westchester, and even places like Riverdale have a couple hundred feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 for nassau Saturday Night: Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow. Low around 35. Windy, with a north wind between 24 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nikolai your claim that NYC will see 4 yet any suburb within 25 miles of the city won't see 6+ is bs. Areas just N and W of the city and over 500ft have a legitimate shot at 6+. And areas N and W of 287...game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So much for upton not seeing accumulation Saturday Night: Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow. Low around 33. Windy, with a north wind between 23 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nikolai your claim that NYC will see 4 yet any suburb within 25 miles of the city won't see 6+ is bs. Areas just N and W of the city and over 500ft have a legitimate shot at 6+. And areas N and W of 287...game on! you are speaking greek to me with all those numbers although I suppose the posters who do have significant elevation may see 7-8", none of you are getting double-digit totals... the winners in this storm are going to be the people under the heaviest banding, elevation won't make a difference until you're 1k ft+ IMO lol @ the outrage from the suburban posters the minute someone says they won't see 6"+ from a snowstorm in October when everyone keeps railing on NYC and there is nary a whimper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm not suprised by the High wind watch. 12z GFS bufkit showed potential max gust to 63kts at OKX tomorrow night. NYC will probably be under at least a wind advisory by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If that map verifies, Noreaster27 fail, lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm not suprised by the High wind watch. 12z GFS bufkit showed potential max gust to 63kts at OKX tomorrow night. NYC will probably be under at least a wind advisory by tomorrow. They have my gust at 45 that's just the criteria right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upton calling for 3"-5" for me in Astoria: Saturday Night: Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow. Low around 36. Windy, with a north wind between 26 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upton calling for 3"-5" for me in Astoria: Saturday Night: Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow. Low around 36. Windy, with a north wind between 26 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible Same in Manhattan... NYC at 47/28 at 5PM. First official sub-50 high of the season, only hit 49 today--4 degrees below the forecast, FWIW. It's not terribly significant but it does show the depth of this 'cold' air-mass for October standards, especially as today had fair skies. I think it's likely we get into the 30s tonight, but we shall wait and see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just as an FYI, we did see a pretty siginificant shift east last year on the 1/11 storm, and we also saw it for 12/19. Any kind of shift east doubles the point and click snow falls IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No winter weather advisory or wind advisory yet though hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 beware-high bust potential on either end...I think we could see nothing or 6 inches...all depends on the change over and of course the heavy precip rates developing....hoping for the best for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just as an FYI, we did see a pretty siginificant shift east last year on the 1/11 storm, and we also saw it for 12/19. Any kind of shift east doubles the point and click snow falls IMHO. A lot of times models will wind up storms a little west of where they end up in the end at this stage. I wouldn't be surprised at a final fade east at the very end with tonight's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just as an FYI, we did see a pretty siginificant shift east last year on the 1/11 storm, and we also saw it for 12/19. Any kind of shift east doubles the point and click snow falls IMHO. Love this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 540's are above freezing for a good portion of the storm. Not sure how representative of the atmosphere that is when 850's are nearing -8 and the surface is 32-35. Like someone mentioned earlier, thickness is not the be all end all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 beware-high bust potential on either end...I think we could see nothing or 6 inches...all depends on the change over and of course the heavy precip rates developing....hoping for the best for all! we like you more this way then "NAM Bust, its not snowing" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 They have my gust at 45 that's just the criteria right? 45mph gust is low-end wind advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A lot of times models will wind up storms a little west of where they end up in the end at this stage. I wouldn't be surprised at a final fade east at the very end with tonight's runs. Especially in a rather progressive flow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 beware-high bust potential on either end...I think we could see nothing or 6 inches...all depends on the change over and of course the heavy precip rates developing....hoping for the best for all! Definitely could be some surprises. Before 2/25/10, most NYC predictions were for maybe around 6-8" or so. Central Park ended up with 22". Same with 1/27 last year, 12/25/02, and so on. I think one or two locations well up in the NJ/SE NY mountains and hills could see 18-20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 45mph gust is low-end wind advisory criteria. Gotcha thanks, but I never trust the wind forecast anymore after 3/10/10 and Irene till I see the wind myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 540's are above freezing for a good portion of the storm. 540 refers to thickness, not temperature. There are any number of temperature profiles between 500mb and 1000mb that could lead to a thickness of 540 decameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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