nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This snow/rain line will rival the Feb 2010 storm. Its pouring in Bridgeport and Snowing Hard in Greenwich at 30 hours. How bout the 5boroughs? Like is it snow in manhattan rain in Brooklyn etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Look at the sim radar, its starting to really take on the more classic early season noreaster with the heavy snows where they should be, upstate NY and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 wow.. the NAM has a really classic CCB.. it keeps on giving.. The vorticity maxima pretty much remains in the same location, just south of us for quite some time and then it starts closing off at 500 mb.. I really like this depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The only thing I'm sure of is that 24 hours from now this board will be going at a rate of 1-2 pages per minute for posts and either be a funeral or a celebration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's 3.1 C at 27 hours at JFK... It's 1.6 at KNYC at the same time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Anything beyond hours 30, is definetely snow for NYC on NAM. And from hour 30-36, .50"-.75" has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Look at the sim radar, its starting to really take on the more classic early season noreaster with the heavy snows where they should be, upstate NY and NE. Mount Pocono could be ground zero for this event-wouldn't surprise me if there are some 15"+ totals up there up to maybe Monticello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Clown maps are awesome. Ill post them in banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Monticello easily breaks a foot with this, probably closer to 18 inches. They rip the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My concern right now is where the "moat" will set up between major bands. There will almost certainly be one over N NJ, the Poconos and SE NY, with probably an area of light snow/rain just east. It wouldn't surprise me if there is a "jip zone" just SE or west of where this band is, regardless of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Can't sneeze at HPC 8" probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18Z NAM mostly held. At 24 (18Z tomorrow) its actually colder at the surface, but a bit warmer at 850, than its 12Z counterpart at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My concern right now is where the "moat" will set up between major bands. There will almost certainly be one over N NJ, the Poconos and SE NY, with probably an area of light snow/rain just east. It wouldn't surprise me if there is a "jip zone" just SE or west of where this band is, regardless of temps. sim radar indicates that pretty well. Can't go with the smoothed out precip amounts, it seems the major band keeps getting pushed west, so we have to watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My house in Dobbs Ferry at 350' is going to take a massive blow; the 18z NAM shows that both HPN and NYC are mostly snow throughout the event. It looks to me as if the jackpot will be from the Catskills through the NW CT hills into central Massachusetts, but Westchester County should see at least 4-8"... One thing people often forget is that it's not that hard to get to 32/32 with heavy snow falling, especially since 850s are around -3C for NYC metro during a large part of the event. You don't rip heavy snow for hours and stay at 34F with non-accumulating slush. As long as NYC gets into the H7 deformation axis, it will be mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The only thing I'm sure of is that 24 hours from now this board will be going at a rate of 1-2 pages per minute for posts and either be a funeral or a celebration. hahha ! hate to waste a post here, but this made me ROFL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My house in Dobbs Ferry at 350' is going to take a massive blow; the 18z NAM shows that both HPN and NYC are mostly snow throughout the event. It looks to me as if the jackpot will be from the Catskills through the NW CT hills into central Massachusetts, but Westchester County should see at least 4-8"... One thing people often forget is that it's not that hard to get to 32/32 with heavy snow falling, especially since 850s are around -3C for NYC metro during a large part of the event. You don't rip heavy snow for hours and stay at 34F with non-accumulating slush. As long as NYC gets into the H7 deformation axis, it will be mostly snow. When everyone says NYC do they mean city it's self or all boroughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 When everyone says NYC do they mean city it's self or all boroughs KNYC is often a signifier for Central Park... I believe that is what Nate is referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 When everyone says NYC do they mean city it's self or all boroughs manhattan. Central/Eastern Queens, etc will be in the screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 sim radar indicates that pretty well. Can't go with the smoothed out precip amounts, it seems the major band keeps getting pushed west, so we have to watch that. We have to watch that as the day progresses. Any snow in October qualifies as a blockbuster around here, but it could cause some nailbiting where those areas of subsidence inevitably occur. There will probably be a solid area of precip from the low itself on the coast, then the megaband inland somewhere associated with the max. deformation. The progressive nature of the storm could help even amounts out, since the band should be progressive. The low closing off at 500 as it heads east of here should help lock snow in for longer along the coast at the end-hopefully we see that persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Someone was rubbing their crystal ball! PUBLICINFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE NEW YORK NY 600 AM EDT SATOCT 29 2011 ...THIS IS WINTERWEATHER AWARENESS WEEK... PLEASE JOIN THENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NEW YORK STATE OFFICE OFEMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN PROMOTING WINTER WEATHER EDUCATION INCLUDING SAFETY. TODAY'S THEME ISWINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS. FOR HEAVYSNOW...CHECK AND WINTERIZE YOUR VEHICLES BEFORE THE WINTER SEASON BEGINS. CARRYA WINTER STORM SURVIVAL KIT INCLUDING BLANKETS...AFLASHLIGHT WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...A SHOVEL AND MAP. FOR ICING...MAKESURE THAT AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF SALT AND SAND ARE AVAILABLE FORMELTING ICE. FOR HIGHWINDS...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOUSES BEGINS WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 57 MPH.THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE PARTS OR WHOLE TREES TO FALL. SOMETREES MIGHT FALL ON POWER AND TELEPHONE LINES CAUSING INTERRUPTION OFELECTRICAL AND TELEPHONE SERVICE. ALSO NOTE THAT HEAVY ICING WILLPRODUCE SIMILAR TYPES OF ELECTRICAL AND TELEPHONE SERVICEINTERRUPTIONS. TO PREPARE FOR THESE HAZARDS... FOR A MOBILEHOME...MAKE SURE THAT IT IS TIED DOWN AND IS SECURE. WITHOUT THESERVICES OF A REFRIGERATOR AND A STOVE...MAKE SURE TO HAVE AN ADEQUATESTOCK OF CANNED GOODS. FOR TIDALFLOODING...KNOW YOUR AREA'S FLOOD RISK AND ELEVATIONS WITH REFERENCE TO MEANLOWER LOW WATER AND MEAN SEA LEVEL. KNOW WHAT WATER ELEVATIONSWILL CAUSE MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING IN YOUR AREA. THENWS FORECASTS STORM TIDES WITH SPECIFIC REFERENCE TO MEAN LOWER LOWWATER. KNOW THEAVAILABLE ROUTES FOR ESCAPE AND WHERE SHELTERS ARE AVAILABLE IF YOUARE DIRECTED TO EVACUATE YOUR AREA. THIS IS THE FINALSTATEMENT COVERING WINTER PREPAREDNESS WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 manhattan. Central/Eastern Queens, etc will be in the screw zone. I think by dark we begin to snow also, and hard. When the low begins to pull east from NJ, we get a nice northerly fetch and cold air wrapping in. I think we get our fun esp. after 0z, maybe as early as 21z for Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 High Wind Watches up now. http://forecast.weat...High+Wind+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Liars SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --STILL ASSIMILATING LATEST NWP DATA WITH CONCERNS FOR MORE SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION IN NY METRO. MORE DETAILS AT 4 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I guess they are deciding whether or not to issue advisories, or more likely for which counties. Would look silly if they don't for at least NE NJ since Mt Holly issued them for central NJ and warnings nearby Liars SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --STILL ASSIMILATING LATEST NWP DATA WITH CONCERNS FOR MORE SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION IN NY METRO. MORE DETAILS AT 4 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Surprised most of uptons area from NYC east isn't in wind watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I guess they are deciding whether or not to issue advisories, or more likely for which counties. Would look silly if they don't for at least NE NJ since Mt Holly issued them for central NJ and warnings nearby And whether or not to go Euro/NAM or GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LI is Surprised most of uptons area from NYC east isn't in wind watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There seems to be a consensus among the GFS, NAM and ECMWF that the best time for accumulating snow at TTN is 0Z-3Z as the lower end of the deform band swings through... this is similar to what happened on 2/5/01 where essentially the same thing occurred, though a few hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LI is I meant the entire area including 5boros sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 while we wait for Upton's discussion... Boston's just came out.. here is a sniplet of it: AS WE GET INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST NAM IS SHOWING INTENSE OMEGA OF 40 TO 50 MICROBARS PER SECOND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LIKELY SET UP. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THIS REGION. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDER SNOW AS THE NAM IS SHOWING A GOOD EPV SIGNATURE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEAVY WET SNOW WILL AFFECT INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF WET SNOW. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MANY LEAVES STILL ON THE TREES AND THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS A SERIOUS SITUATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EVEN IN THE INTERIOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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