famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I also compared this storm to the 2002 because not alot of people thought that the area was going to see a lot of snow. That storm was driven on dynamics. 2/5/01 was even more dynamic driven, in that the only reason it changed over to snow was dynamics. There was no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 srefs are warm until hour 36 for NYC and eastern NJ. After this, we would see some snow. But it looks like only .25"-.50" are left. Only thing is that 15z srefs, use 12z data, I believe, so I think we need to wait until 21z srefs and even 3z srefs to get a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 12/25/02 storm - while structurally different than this storm, as I originally said yesterday appears to be a close analog to this one.. However, we must wait until the storm evolves tomorrow afternoon.. We all must remember that on Christmas 2002 - we all (NYC area and LI) witnessed rain for countless hours- gusty winds and temps near 50 on Long Island.. There was talk of it turning over to snow, but there was NO indication that we were going to get what we eventually got until it basically happened.. That was a now-forecast if there ever was one.... So while there are several analogs - i think i mentioned 2/28/10 (maybe a day or two off) and someone mentioned i think 2/5/01 as another good analog- the one interesting thing about the FORECAST, in this situation is that the deform band and dynamics are screaming 12/25/02... We'll see what happens.. At this juncture to predict anything more than 1-3"+ for NYC and points east would be very ill conceived.. We all must remember that anything above .8" of snow, this storm will be deemed historic.. As someone said earlier, at this juncture it's basically a question of whether or not this will be a historic event or a once in 200-500+ event (FOR NYC general area).. I have to question if you even have much memory of 2/5/01. Its much better, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 srefs are warm until hour 36 for NYC and eastern NJ. After this, we would see some snow. But it looks like only .25"-.50" are left. Only thing is that 15z srefs, use 12z data, I believe, so I think we need to wait until 21z srefs and even 3z srefs to get a good idea. You are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I have to question if you even have much memory of 2/5/01. Its much better, really. No No- i agree w/ you.. I have no memory of that storm.- b/c i wasn't in the NYC area.. Thus i'm only relying on my memory of 12/25/02... I have NO doubt that you are completely correct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 are they cold enough? No. Really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You are correct. Looking at the individual members, all the ARW and RSM members are super amped. All the ETA members are nice and look like NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 srefs are warm until hour 36 for NYC and eastern NJ. After this, we would see some snow. But it looks like only .25"-.50" are left. Only thing is that 15z srefs, use 12z data, I believe, so I think we need to wait until 21z srefs and even 3z srefs to get a good idea. Given the east tick on the GFS, Euro, and all other data, I would almost toss them. Something in there, maybe the RSM, whatever, is screwing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No No- i agree w/ you.. I have no memory of that storm.- b/c i wasn't in the NYC area.. Thus i'm only relying on my memory of 12/25/02... I have NO doubt that you are completely correct.. Ah. OK, well if 12/25/02 is the best you have to go off of, then yeah, that's probably the best for you memory wise. But really, check out the maps, obs, etc... the similarity is pretty strong: http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2001/05-Feb-01.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah that was a great storm, especially north and west. The temps stayed near freezing the whole time as went back and forth from rain to wet snow before turning to all snow and getting heavy in the late afternoon. Some places got 10-15" in NW/Western NJ and even EWR got close to 6". Took me 5 hours to 'drive' from Parsippany to Montclair, which is all of 15 miles at the most. I have to question if you even have much memory of 2/5/01. Its much better, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Given the east tick on the GFS, Euro, and all other data, I would almost toss them. Something in there, maybe the RSM, whatever, is screwing the mean. ALL of the RSM and ARW members are very warm and amped up, close to coast. All the ETA members are east enough and very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Given the east tick on the GFS, Euro, and all other data, I would almost toss them. Something in there, maybe the RSM, whatever, is screwing the mean. I can remember the SREF mean holding out until 12 hrs before the boxing day blizzard to shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 352 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...AN EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE REGION... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TONIGHT WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SWATCH OF HEAVY WET, AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING, SNOW TO A DECENT PORTION OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO END AND MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF HEAVY WET SNOW SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ON NON-PAVED SURFACES. IF THE SNOW FALLS AT A HEAVY RATE, THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE THE EFFICIENCY OF IT STICKING TO ALL SURFACES. NJZ009-010-PAZ067>069-291000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0010.111029T1200Z-111030T0600Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 352 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY WET SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 6 INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ON NON-PAVED SURFACES. * TIMING...RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW DURING SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DEVELOPING, AND THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LIKELY WEIGH DOWN TREES WHICH STILL HAVE LEAVES ON THEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. THE WET SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM, LOCALLY INCREASING THE ACCUMULATION RATE. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, BUT THEN DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO WELL UNDER A MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The IL vs PSU football game tomorrow afternoon should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ352 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...AN EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEREGION....AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITEDSTATES COAST TONIGHT WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK UP THE EAST COASTSATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SWATCH OF HEAVY WET, AND POTENTIALLYDAMAGING, SNOW TO A DECENT PORTION OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO END AND MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAYNIGHT.THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF HEAVY WET SNOW SHOULD BE ACROSS THEHIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ON NON-PAVED SURFACES. IF THE SNOW FALLSAT A HEAVY RATE, THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE THE EFFICIENCY OF ITSTICKING TO ALL SURFACES.DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012-013-015>019-PAZ070-071-291000-/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0022.111029T1600Z-111030T0600Z/NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA352 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AMEDT SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY WET SNOW...WHICH ISIN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON NON-PAVED SURFACES.* TIMING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN MIX WITH WET SNOW AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL DEVELOPING, AND THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL WEIGH DOWN TREE LIMBS WHICH STILL HAVE LEAVES ON THEM. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY WET SNOW DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM, LOCALLY INCREASING THE ACCUMULATION RATE FOR A TIME SATURDAY EVENING.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 40, BUT THEN FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO WELL UNDER A MILE AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSETRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITEDVISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.&&$$GORSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Also Mt.Holly put up a coastal flood warning to boot. Can't believe I'm posting this today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I guess the relatively steady October temps in NYC over the years makes this possible as we have warmed less than other months going back to the early 1900's. October November This month so far (through yesterday) has averaged between 2 and 4 degrees above normal across the region. But what a finish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This month so far (through yesterday) has averaged between 2 and 4 degrees above normal across the region. But what a finish! Saving the best for last... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Through 21 hrs the NAM looks sport on to its 12z counter part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Area starts to rock 18z tomrrow, here is HPN, wet snow and probably starting to come down heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 KNYC NAM 18Z tomorrow, not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 that's only 1.6C at the surface KNYC as the good VV's start to come through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 that's only 1.6C at the surface KNYC as the good VV's start to come through Wow, even down to 950mb is below freezing. A good bit of the precip even in NYC could be snow. I'm sure JFK's looks a lot different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, even down to 950mb is below freezing. A good bit of the precip even in NYC could be snow. I'm sure JFK's looks a lot different. NYC appears to be the line, cuz LGA a few miles away is warmer and up to bridgeport is even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's about a degree © warmer at HPN than at TEB at 27 hours... Don't see that every day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, even down to 950mb is below freezing. A good bit of the precip even in NYC could be snow. I'm sure JFK's looks a lot different. Hour 30 is very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 30 hours still rocking NYC west and starting to get into the action east of NYC as the heights collapse. Its going to be a big hudson valley storm, orange county on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18Z NAM looks pretty good.. 850 low is bit elongated and not tight like the GFS... dynamics are really good.. large amounts of cyclonic vorticity advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This snow/rain line will rival the Feb 2010 storm. Its pouring in Bridgeport and Snowing Hard in Greenwich at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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