KEITH L.I Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even 1-3..2-4 for NYC would be epic for late October. ummm 1 inch would be a record lol..very rare..probably have to go back to the mini ice age to find a significant snow in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow this is hard to look at, but its all Warning criteria snowfall for areas under Mt. Holly that belong to this sub-forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ummm 1 inch would be a record lol..very rare..probably have to go back to the mini ice age to find a significant snow in October The best I can remember was a grassy coating in October 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Crazy this is happening with an NAO that's not even technically negative; however, it looks like that minature blocking feature east of Hudson's Bay will work its magic. Will allow the short wave trough to tilt neg, backing upper flow along the east coast and then closing off near NYC. The upper vorticity with this event is just incredible on modelling, largely the reason why we're going to see snow - the dynamics will override the fact that it's October and a 65 degree ocean's sitting to our east. Not a significant snowstorm by winter standards along the I-95 corridor, but I have a feeling it will be the biggest event in October history, which only requires 1"+ accumulation I believe in NYC. My thinking right now is the bulk of the pcpn falls as rain PHL-NYC corridor eastward, but once the changeover occurs, will have a 2-3 hour period of intense snowfall rates, cooling the lowest 100-150mb down to 32-34 degrees, which should be cold enough for light accumulations (1-3") given the dynamics at play. Increases my confidence for my targeted Dec 15-25 period in Dec for a significant storm when the NAO is strongly negative. Right now I'm happy I went 30-40" in NYC this winter given the pattern we're seeing now. Very impressive storm for October, which IMO, does give a hint as to the potential in the ensuing winter. The pattern over the coming couple weeks will turn milder for the Eastern US as a low amplitude MJO wave tries to circulate into phases 3, 4. Cold air should situate itself in the upper mid-west until mid month, when I think we'll start the beginning of a pattern change NAO/AO wise. that is a davis strait block, pretty awesome one too with the pv rotating underneath it and up to the 50/50 spot. Its also got a 540 height which is the same strength as the 1/11/11 block. I know people love those maps that show if the nao is - or +, but the 500mb maps are the only thing that counts, and in this situation, that is a perfectly set block, regardless if it gets the nao meter to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 pretty sick simulated radar image from the SPC WRF. I know earthlight says this thing isn't killer inside 24, but its fun to look at. Also check out the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL @ TWC upped totals to 4-6" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL @ TWC upped totals to 4-6" for NYC. Refer to 12/25/02 to see what a changeover to very heavy wet snow and gusty winds can do. That night twc and nws had us for 1-3 inches and most of the island including nyc got up to or over a foot of snow in a matter of hours so it can happen if this intense banding sets up and the storm really deepens, it is october but forecasts can bust too low in banding and alot of people know that here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL @ TWC upped totals to 4-6" for NYC. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL @ TWC upped totals to 4-6" for NYC. That may be a computer generated forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link? weather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Refer to 12/25/02 to see what a changeover to very heavy wet snow and gusty winds can do. That night twc and nws had us for 1-3 inches and most of the island including nyc got up to or over a foot of snow in a matter of hours so it can happen if this intense banding sets up and the storm really deepens, it is october but forecasts can bust too low in banding and alot of people know that here They had me in the 40's all day with 0.5 inches of snow at the end. I received 5 inches of wind swept snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 SPC WRF isn't terrible outside 24, but at 36 hr it's pushing towards a time period where it can be a bit unreliable. Tonight's 00z run will give us a much better idea what's going on. Regardless, we already had our big run of the day. The Euro was farther southeast and colder than the GFS. It likely had a blip run with its low pressure intensity, too. That's the only reason why it's not a carbon copy of the NAM. I'm not too concerned right now. This is going to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC Department of Sanitation just issused a Snow alert. http://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=Pix11Dan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I like how TWC has me with 2-4 inches of snow ..and the city 4-6.. (I'm west of NYC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Refer to 12/25/02 to see what a changeover to very heavy wet snow and gusty winds can do. That night twc and nws had us for 1-3 inches and most of the island including nyc got up to or over a foot of snow in a matter of hours so it can happen if this intense banding sets up and the storm really deepens, it is october but forecasts can bust too low in banding and alot of people know that here I don't think its good to compare this to 12/25/02. Temps dropped below freezing in that storm, if only barely to 31 or 30. In this storm, it will be VERY DIFFICULT to get to 32... more than likely temps will drop to 33 and hold even if its +SN. This is one reason I feel 2/5/01 is a much better comparison, besides the overall storm structure (which is also much more similar to 2/5/01 than to 12/25/02). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 weather.com It says 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I guess the relatively steady October temps in NYC over the years makes this possible as we have warmed less than other months going back to the early 1900's. October November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't think its good to compare this to 12/25/02. Temps dropped below freezing in that storm, if only barely to 31 or 30. In this storm, it will be VERY DIFFICULT to get to 32... more than likely temps will drop to 33 and hold even if its +SN. This is one reason I feel 2/5/01 is a much better comparison, besides the overall storm structure (which is also much more similar to 2/5/01 than to 12/25/02). I also compared this storm to the 2002 because not alot of people thought that the area was going to see a lot of snow. That storm was driven on dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 weather.com No, local on the 8's/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 beautiful juice over the eastern Gulf. the northern stream over the MW diving in. http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html I can see the hammer forming in future frames..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It says 2-4. Again, local on the 8's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Anything that depicts this as NOT being a juicy storm, with water temps in the 60s and a Rina connection is just fooling themselves. The heavens will open up tomorrow most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It says 2-4. Go to weather.com, plug in New York, NY. This isn't that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 TWC also has the Jersey (eastern) suburbs of Philly getting 6-10". That aint happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 http://www.weather.com/weather/today/New+York+NY+USNY0996 Silly, it says 4-6" accumlating, while at the same time saying 1-3". SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Refer to 12/25/02 to see what a changeover to very heavy wet snow and gusty winds can do. That night twc and nws had us for 1-3 inches and most of the island including nyc got up to or over a foot of snow in a matter of hours so it can happen if this intense banding sets up and the storm really deepens, it is october but forecasts can bust too low in banding and alot of people know that here That was a vertically stacked storm though, similar to 4/9/82. That was a very bad forecast and at least in my time of monitoring weather was the worst forecast ever put out by the NYC office. The fact the midnight shift put out Winter Storm Watches for NYC and LI and the AM shift dropped them almost immediately by 9am made it even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 srefs keep on coming west it appears, now with western members over the city. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Go to weather.com, plug in New York, NY. This isn't that hard. Actually, that doesn't bring up any maps. Nevermind. It's wrong anyway. I can't see NYC getting past 2 inches of snow. Climatology over the past 150+ years means something. It'll still be historic and record breaking and amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 12/25/02 storm - while structurally different than this storm, as I originally said yesterday appears to be a close analog to this one.. However, we must wait until the storm evolves tomorrow afternoon.. We all must remember that on Christmas 2002 - we all (NYC area and LI) witnessed rain for countless hours- gusty winds and temps near 50 on Long Island.. There was talk of it turning over to snow, but there was NO indication that we were going to get what we eventually got until it basically happened.. That was a now-forecast if there ever was one.... So while there are several analogs - i think i mentioned 2/28/10 (maybe a day or two off) and someone mentioned i think 2/5/01 as another good analog- the one interesting thing about the FORECAST, in this situation is that the deform band and dynamics are screaming 12/25/02... We'll see what happens.. At this juncture to predict anything more than 1-3"+ for NYC and points east would be very ill conceived.. We all must remember that anything above .8" of snow, this storm will be deemed historic.. As someone said earlier, at this juncture it's basically a question of whether or not this will be a historic event or a once in 200-500+ event (FOR NYC general area).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 srefs keep on coming west it appears, now with western members over the city. wow. are they cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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