potential for a few mangled flakes part 3

[psv88]

Here are hours 30-42 snow maps off wunderground. We dont know the accuracy of these. WillORH says they look overdone.

If he's here, please post the WSI maps so we can compare:

hours:

30-33

33-36

36-39

39-42

ha...looks like 5-7 inches nassau county...riggghttt..

[Kaner587]

Here are hours 30-42 snow maps off wunderground. We dont know the accuracy of these. WillORH says they look overdone.

If he's here, please post the WSI maps so we can compare:

hours:

30-33

33-36

36-39

39-42

I mean I think its obviously overdone, NYC gets like over 10 in, which I think CLEARLY isn't happening, nor do I think thats what the EURO is actually depicting. Maybe cut that in half (5in) and thats prob what NYC could max out with given a perfect situation.

[ag3]

Is there a way to show a total? i am on the site now and i only see ways to shows every 3 hours?

Nope. No way for a total.

Accuweather has total snow. If anyone has access, please post info.

[SnoSki14]

Getting even an inch of snow in late October is beyond amazing so I'll take it. If this were mid December, we'd probably be talking 15-20" at least depending on snow ratios, probably blizzard conditions, let's hope for a repeat in December. Models for the most part give us at least a few hours of very heavy wet snow before the event ends so it'll be very interesting to see how everything plays out. Who knows, maybe there will be a few unexpected surprises. I mean we are dealing with an event that hasn't happened in over 150 years.

[jm1220]

Does the Euro provide soundings anywhere? Again, these are far more valuable than any clown maps.

[hazwoper]

Here are hours 30-42 snow maps off wunderground. We dont know the accuracy of these. WillORH says they look overdone.

If he's here, please post the WSI maps so we can compare:

hours:

30-33

33-36

36-39

39-42

Euro has DYL area 7-8". I'll take it.

[bluewave]

I think that the general depiction of the CCB crossing overhead at night is correct

even though those totals look overdone there would still be the best October

snow that we have ever seen.

[ace0927]

I mean I think its obviously overdone, NYC gets like over 10 in, which I think CLEARLY isn't happening, nor do I think thats what the EURO is actually depicting. Maybe cut that in half (5in) and thats prob what NYC could max out with given a perfect situation.

even Nassau gets a whole bunch of those maps

[ag3]

Does the Euro provide soundings anywhere? Again, these are far more valuable than any clown maps.

Yes. On accuweather. Haven't subscribed yet.

Im sure someone here can post them.

[NorEaster27]

Some clown maps:

GFS:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OKX

NAM:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OKX

[Stormlover74]

I could be way off, but tomorrow's average temps are the same as April 14th. We've had some pretty historic snowfalls just prior to that time so I would think it's not out of the realm of possibility even though April is much closer to winter than late October.. 4/13/1875 had 10" when the normal high is around 60

[ace0927]

Some clown maps:

GFS:

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=OKX

NAM:

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=OKX

lol- 8-12 sw Nassau cty on the NAM

[jm1220]

Nope. No way for a total.

Accuweather has total snow. If anyone has access, please post info.

12z run's not available yet.

[ag3]

Upton calling for up to an inch for NYC, Bronx and Upper Queens and acknowledges more is possible.

SE ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE

FOR THE UPPER BOROUGHS OF NYC AND THE IMMEDIATE CT COASTLINE.

THIS WILL BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND ANY SOUTH/EAST DEVIATION IN

THE STORM TRACK AND/OR GREATER THAN EXPECTED STORM INTENSITY COULD

RESULT IN COLDER AIR AND GREATER SNOW AMTS PENETRATING FARTHER SE

INTO NYC...COASTAL CT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

[MJO812]

Euro, Nam and RGEM have 6+ for the NYC area. Incredible. I doubt we will see that much though.

Upton is still calling for less than 1 inch.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

for the metro folks:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 202 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND THEN RETREAT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING AN EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1615Z UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...AND SKY GRIDS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS MOSTLY AROUND 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... STILL ASSIMILATING LATEST NWP DATA WITH CONCERNS FOR MORE SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION IN NY METRO. MORE DETAILS AT 4 PM.

[KEITH L.I]

Euro, Nam and RGEM have 6+ for the NYC area. Incredible. I doubt we will see that much though.

Upton is still calling for less than 1 inch.

they always go with Climo on these unusual setups..is that the smart move?..we'll find out

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro, Nam and RGEM have 6+ for the NYC area. Incredible. I doubt we will see that much though.

Upton is still calling for less than 1 inch.

they seem to be changing their tune....next update shortly after 4pm so stay tuned. (i dont know why i said that cuz its not like your going anywhere lol)

[NorEaster27]

Euro, Nam and RGEM have 6+ for the NYC area. Incredible. I doubt we will see that much though.

Upton is still calling for less than 1 inch.

that was last night, I doubt they move that much.

[Isotherm]

Crazy this is happening with an NAO that's not even technically negative; however, it looks like that minature blocking feature east of Hudson's Bay will work its magic. Will allow the short wave trough to tilt neg, backing upper flow along the east coast and then closing off near NYC. The upper vorticity with this event is just incredible on modelling, largely the reason why we're going to see snow - the dynamics will override the fact that it's October and a 65 degree ocean's sitting to our east. Not a significant snowstorm by winter standards along the I-95 corridor, but I have a feeling it will be the biggest event in October history, which only requires 1"+ accumulation I believe in NYC. My thinking right now is the bulk of the pcpn falls as rain PHL-NYC corridor eastward, but once the changeover occurs, will have a 2-3 hour period of intense snowfall rates, cooling the lowest 100-150mb down to 32-34 degrees, which should be cold enough for light accumulations (1-3") given the dynamics at play.

Increases my confidence for my targeted Dec 15-25 period in Dec for a significant storm when the NAO is strongly negative. Right now I'm happy I went 30-40" in NYC this winter given the pattern we're seeing now. Very impressive storm for October, which IMO, does give a hint as to the potential in the ensuing winter.

The pattern over the coming couple weeks will turn milder for the Eastern US as a low amplitude MJO wave tries to circulate into phases 3, 4. Cold air should situate itself in the upper mid-west until mid month, when I think we'll start the beginning of a pattern change NAO/AO wise.

[ag3]

Upton will probably issue WWA for precautionary reasons.

Its very possible that heavy snow amounts can surprise the city and Upton needs to issue advisories to have the city workers on alert, just in case.

[Ed Lizard]

Euro is an almost/not quite, judging from 6 hour raw numbers

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LGA    LAT=  40.77 LON=  -73.90 ELE=    30

                                           12Z OCT28
                2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI 12Z 28-OCT   3.9    -2.7    1022      67      10    0.00     556     539    
FRI 18Z 28-OCT   8.9    -2.7    1022      40       9    0.00     558     540    
SAT 00Z 29-OCT   8.6    -2.1    1023      52      25    0.00     560     541    
SAT 06Z 29-OCT   8.3    -4.5    1023      53      95    0.01     559     540    
SAT 12Z 29-OCT   8.3    -4.1    1020      57      99    0.03     558     542    
SAT 18Z 29-OCT   4.1    -2.8    1014      96     100    0.39     555     544    
SUN 00Z 30-OCT   3.1    -3.2    1010      97      99    0.93     548     540    
SUN 06Z 30-OCT   2.8    -5.1    1012      90      99    0.36     539     530    

[stockmanjr]

Upton will probably issue WWA for precautionary reasons.

Its very possible that heavy snow amounts can surprise the city and Upton needs to issue advisories to have the city workers on alert, just in case.

I was just thinking the same thing an it makes sense as an inch or two of wet snow coupled with wind could certainly take down trees and elevated power lines.

[simpsonsbuff]

This is one of the better sites for soundings I have always believed http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php You can go down the hour mark with the NAM...

[tmagan]

HPC has a 2.6" QPF max just south of NYC for day one and two combined.

[SnowGoose69]

they always go with Climo on these unusual setups..is that the smart move?..we'll find out

Everybody pretty much does, you have no prior events to really base this off of. The pre-thanksgiving event in 2002 that pounded N-C CT with 5-8 inches of snow was forecast to be rain here due to similar reasoning, well, it WAS mostly rain but that was because the heavy precip never occurred over coastal areas and was all inland....still though, it did snow at the coast even with light precipitation falling. Everyone would have been burned on that storm had it been more organized.

[bluewave]

Even 1-3..2-4 for NYC would be epic for late October.

[Isotherm]

Crazy this is happening with an NAO that's not even technically negative; however, it looks like that minature blocking feature east of Hudson's Bay will work its magic. Will allow the short wave trough to tilt neg, backing upper flow along the east coast and then closing off near NYC. The upper vorticity with this event is just incredible on modelling, largely the reason why we're going to see snow - the dynamics will override the fact that it's October and a 65 degree ocean's sitting to our east. Not a significant snowstorm by winter standards along the I-95 corridor, but I have a feeling it will be the biggest event in October history, which only requires 1"+ accumulation I believe in NYC. My thinking right now is the bulk of the pcpn falls as rain PHL-NYC corridor eastward, but once the changeover occurs, will have a 2-3 hour period of intense snowfall rates, cooling the lowest 100-150mb down to 32-34 degrees, which should be cold enough for light accumulations (1-3") given the dynamics at play.

Increases my confidence for my targeted Dec 15-25 period in Dec for a significant storm when the NAO is strongly negative. Right now I'm happy I went 30-40" in NYC this winter given the pattern we're seeing now. Very impressive storm for October, which IMO, does give a hint as to the potential in the ensuing winter.

The pattern over the coming couple weeks will turn milder for the Eastern US as a low amplitude MJO wave tries to circulate into phases 3, 4. Cold air should situate itself in the upper mid-west until mid month, when I think we'll start the beginning of a pattern change NAO/AO wise.

Also, let's keep the Jan 8 2008 event in the back of ou minds here. The only way I see the coast receiving minor accum 1-3" is IF the inrecible dynamics/vv's currently progged verify. Otherwise it'll just be front to back rain w/ some sickly flakes mixed for the coast. NW zones it's pretty much a lock they'll see some accum, probably significant 4+, but I strongly doubt the totals painted on these clown maps (12-18").

[IsentropicLift]

If I had to take a stab, I would say they will go with Winter Storm Warnings for a tier further south and east than normal, for precautionary reasons. Not too many people have really stressed the fact that over 50% of the trees in the area still have most of there leafs. This coupled with the fact that they usually go above and beyond for the first snow event of the year makes me believe that even if confidence is below normal Warnings could fly as far south and east as Western Bergan County and advisories for almost everyone.

[NJwinter23]

Idk if the winds have been mentioned yet, but I'm looking at the bufkit out of islip predicting 58 kts mixing down 72 kts ( !!! ) at 2am Saturday night under that comma head.