TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 the nam cold bias idea is from upton, here is what they said. POSSIBLY DUE TO A COLD BIAS WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED WITH THE NAM MODEL UPGRADE EARLIER THIS MONTH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE NAM WAS BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS AT PINNING DOWN THE QUICK TEMP DROP AND HIGHER ELEVATION LIGHT SNOW AFTER THE STRONG COLD FROPA ON THU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KLGA&model=nam&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 the nam cold bias idea is from upton, here is what they said. POSSIBLY DUE TO A COLD BIAS WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED WITH THE NAM MODEL UPGRADE EARLIER THIS MONTH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE NAM WAS BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS AT PINNING DOWN THE QUICK TEMP DROP AND HIGHER ELEVATION LIGHT SNOW AFTER THE STRONG COLD FROPA ON THU. Most areas are 3-4 degrees above guidance (NAM/GFS) at this point, so they could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm looking forward to the wind aspect as welL should be impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 My upton zone uses klga for my temp and all but I use weather bug to my temp per klga Rose to 45 from 44 but for weather bug I use Brooklyn college, it droprd to 43 I'm better off using the weather bug station cause it's closer or klga cause it's official? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Currently 37* ne wind at 8. Forcast is for 3 to7" for today and another 5 to 9 for tonite. total of 8-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Currently 37* ne wind at 8. Forcast is for 3 to7" for today and another 5 to 9 for tonite. total of 8-16. Congrats enjoy it! Be safe though with the tree and power situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Congrats enjoy it! Be safe though with the tree and power situation Thanks! Power will be a huge concern up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Thanks! Power will be a huge concern up this way Same by me in Brooklyn even without snow my neighborhood is full of trees every wind event trees go down and power goes off, even an inch of snow will just add insult to injury down here expecting 55mph gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The 6z GFS continues the cooling trend, and 0C h850 does not get above Mercer County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Most areas are 3-4 degrees above guidance (NAM/GFS) at this point, so they could be right. NAM is spot-on so far with matching the actual surface temp here in northern NJ while the GFS is 1.5F too high. May not stay that way but will be interesting (and critical) to see how the temps play out versus model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Seagulls out all over! Snows a coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Seagulls out all over! Snows a coming is that a good indicator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 is that a good indicator? My grandma says crows and seagulls mean snow coming lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Can someone explain this to me... Looking at this loop - http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Is that vortex/energy rounding the base of the trough through the Tennessee valley the impetus that will cause the fireworks off the Delmarva this PM? thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Can anyone explain what "bukfit" means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Can anyone explain what "bukfit" means? http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/bufkit/bufkit.html http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Looking like snow up here in northern Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Temp from 45 to 42 in hour and a half, moderate rain wind gusting 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 really looks and feels like Dec out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Hah upton overdid it now...forecasting 4-8 inches here in NE metro NJ, yet saying in the discussion there's a chance that it will be only a coating to an inch lol. I personally still think we get 2" maybe up to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Nws has raised our totals to 8-12 and just 10 minutes from here in Putnam county 10-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 looks, feel,s and smells like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 OT, but anyone worried about an early snow ruining winter should check out the west based and davis strait blocking being advertised in the long range, November could be historic too! and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Dang, the 06z NAM has thundersnow in its forecast text sounding for SMQ at 21z: 15 10/29 21Z 32 32 10 16 0.51 0.01 540 549 -4.0 -19.9 1011 100 TSSN 001OVC183 5.1 0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 upton put it in their zones too, it shows up really well in the bufkit soundings Today: Rain before 5pm, then rain and snow. Some thunder is also possible. Temperature falling to around 35 by 5pm. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 14 mph increasing to between 19 and 22 mph. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 11pm. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 32. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 26 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I am so pumped up. Today is going to be historic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I am so pumped up. Today is going to be historic . oh yeah, is it buy one get one free at the CVS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 41 in Brooklyn was 45 at 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 41 in Brooklyn was 45 at 6 there will be an initial drop in temps from the evap cooling but the big push will be with the dynamics around 17/18z. Its gonna happen fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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