phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I don't have much confidence in the most recent HRRR. Look how Poorly its handling the convection over florida. It literally looks like its trying to spin up an MCS, instead of a remant MCS spinning down which is what we are experiencing in reality. Also, both the NAM and HRRR seem to be having problems showing the extensive area of precipitation across the Northern part of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Thundersnow anyone??? I think it is likely. The omega is so high and there is elevated CAPE. What a storm to come. According to OKX's gridded forecast just put out, they are going with thundersnow for the city. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 According to OKX's gridded forecast just put out, they are going with thundersnow for the city. :-) ...and for most of the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The SPC WRF which was last winter's winner in regards to excellent meso band placement shows some sort of bizarre dry slot for NYC/LI and Coastal NJ from 18-23Z or so and then the back band comes across and it snows til 05Z in NYC and beyond for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The SPC WRF which was last winter's winner in regards to excellent meso band placement shows some sort of bizarre dry slot for NYC/LI and Coastal NJ from 18-23Z or so and then the back band comes across and it snows til 05Z in NYC and beyond for LI. Could be a fluke. But you never know with that kind of high res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 OKX has gusts to 50 for NYC. Wind Adv. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The SPC WRF which was last winter's winner in regards to excellent meso band placement shows some sort of bizarre dry slot for NYC/LI and Coastal NJ from 18-23Z or so and then the back band comes across and it snows til 05Z in NYC and beyond for LI. I think its going to be very difficult for any one particular high resolution model to "win" today, thanks to the fact its only late october, and there is widespread convection in the southern part of the modeling domain which could introduce more model error than the global models were typically experience. Already the SPC WRF seems to be poorly handling the precipitation over Florida, and I think this is the key to figuring out how far north that deformation band travels before it starts to pivot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The NAM just did an upgrade. So to speak. I read in the New England thread that one place said it has a cold bias since the upgrade. Oh noes!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleSalty Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 536 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011 ...A HISTORIC EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... CTZ005-NJZ004-103-NYZ069-070-291745- /O.EXT.KOKX.WS.W.0008.111029T1200Z-111030T1000Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 536 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 287 AND THE MERRITT PARKWAY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...GREATEST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The NAM just did an upgrade. So to speak. I read in the New England thread that one place said it has a cold bias since the upgrade. Oh noes!! lol FWIW, the 06z nam soundings projected surface temp for 2:00 AM matched my backyard actual temp perfectly. The gfs was 1.5F too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This is easily the poorest agreement I have ever seen between the NWS and TV Mets, at least in this direction. We've seen before where the NWS is going lower than many of the TV outlets, but I have never seen such unanimous agreement among the TV mets so opposing on the low end the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Looking like 3/10/10 with winds everytime I check upton has my gust higher first 40 then 45 now 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This is easily the poorest agreement I have ever seen between the NWS and TV Mets, at least in this direction. We've seen before where the NWS is going lower than many of the TV outlets, but I have never seen such unanimous agreement among the TV mets so opposing on the low end the NWS. I do agree with you. What I think the problem is that so many people don't believe anything is actually going to happen b/c of the time of year.. It's just almost unconceivable that NYC has the chance tonite to see perhaps for a period of time, whether it's accumulating or not blizzard conditions.. So it's a wait a see game for many and lets face it, if some of these models are right people will be talking about this storm with their grand kids.. A big concern of mine is the fact that this is a HUGE party night for halloween.... MANY are going to be caught off guard tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I do agree with you. What I think the problem is that so many people don't believe anything is actually going to happen b/c of the time of year.. It's just almost unconceivable that NYC has the chance tonite to see perhaps for a period of time, whether it's accumulating or not blizzard conditions.. So it's a wait a see game for many and lets face it, if some of these models are right people will be talking about this storm with their grand kids.. A big concern of mine is the fact that this is a HUGE party night for halloween.... MANY are going to be caught off guard tonight.. Espically the girls in they're costumes haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleSalty Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This is easily the poorest agreement I have ever seen between the NWS and TV Mets, at least in this direction. We've seen before where the NWS is going lower than many of the TV outlets, but I have never seen such unanimous agreement among the TV mets so opposing on the low end the NWS. Amy Freeze just threw Lee's forecast 11 pm (which could be called conservative to some) out the window. Grim forecast from her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Amy Freeze just threw Lee's forecast 11 pm (which could be called conservative to some) out the window. Grim forecast from her. The fact that news stations are more conservative than upton is ridiculous lol, Steve d says no snow for us he must of gotten to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Amy Freeze just threw Lee's forecast 11 pm (which could be called conservative to some) out the window. Grim forecast from her. This is a storm where the TV Mets can really be more risky than the NWS. I think Upton put out the best forecast they could possibly put out with 1-4 inches across the Metro area, they could have gone with nothing but the problem is if they get burned on the high end given this is the first event and also would be a damaging one due to leaves on the trees they are more exposed than any given TV person would be. I think the public will complain more about this event if it over performs than underperforms given the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The fact that news stations are more conservative than upton is ridiculous lol, Steve d says no snow for us he must of gotten to them Look, Steve D, as we all know is known to be mr. bullish when it comes to snow.. He must be relying on something that he see's and or just his general understanding of meteorology, but no matter how you cut it, it's weird to see him so NON-bullish when most guidance says that it will snow at least a little in nyc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Someone could be in for one hell of a surprise just outside the city. Even in the city...it could go to town pretty quickly. The dynamics with this are off the charts which has me concerned for an early changeover just outside the city..but then perhaps in areas like the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Look, Steve D, as we all know is known to be mr. bullish when it comes to snow.. He must be relying on something that he see's and or just his general understanding of meteorology, but no matter how you cut it, it's weird to see him so NON-bullish when most guidance says that it will snow at least a little in nyc... From what I saw he's going mostly climo I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Someone could be in for one hell of a surprise just outside the city. Even in the city...it could go to town pretty quickly. The dynamics with this are off the charts which has me concerned for an early changeover just outside the city..but then perhaps in areas like the Bronx. My expirence with these events usually is a surprise I'm only 20 so I have not seen nearly as many change over storms as some of you guys, but I remember always getting a nice little surprise and a quicker then anticipated changer over a lot of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This is easily the poorest agreement I have ever seen between the NWS and TV Mets, at least in this direction. We've seen before where the NWS is going lower than many of the TV outlets, but I have never seen such unanimous agreement among the TV mets so opposing on the low end the NWS. Great point. In addition, serious continuity discrepancies between Mt. Holly and Upton on snowfall amounts IMBY, in Middlesex County, in both the point-and-click forecasts and the snowfall maps. Upton has Staten Island, about 5 miles due east of me (I live in the Metuchen/Edison area in northern Middlesex County), getting 2-4" of snow, and Rahway, about 8 miles NEof me getting 3-5" of snow, while Mt. Holly has my area getting 1-2" of snow. I completely understand areas to my N/W being forecast to get more snow than me (for example, Mt. Hollly has Bound Brook, about 10 miles west of me in a WSWarning, getting 2-5" of snow), but areas to my NE and even E, should not be forecast to get more snow than me. This kind of forecast discontinuity occurs fairly often for my area. I'm not going to complain to Congress, but I do wish the offices would collaborate a little more closely on these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Great point. In addition, serious continuity discrepancies between Mt. Holly and Upton on snowfall amounts IMBY, in Middlesex County, in both the point-and-click forecasts and the snowfall maps. Upton has Staten Island, about 5 miles due east of me (I live in the Metuchen/Edison area in northern Middlesex County), getting 2-4" of snow, and Rahway, about 8 miles NEof me getting 3-5" of snow, while Mt. Holly has my area getting 1-2" of snow. I completely understand areas to my N/W being forecast to get more snow than me (for example, Mt. Hollly has Bound Brook, about 10 miles west of me in a WSWarning, getting 2-5" of snow), but areas to my NE and even E, should not be forecast to get more snow than me. This kind of forecast discontinuity occurs fairly often for my area. I'm not going to complain to Congress, but I do wish the offices would collaborate a little more closely on these situations. Occupy mt holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 My expirence with these events usually is a surprise I'm only 20 so I have not seen nearly as many change over storms as some of you guys, but I remember always getting a nice little surprise and a quicker then anticipated changer over a lot of times. In the winter these events often are underforecast, at least near the coast because the dynamic cooling and crashing mid-level temps behind the system are usually not predicted well. At this time of the year we just don't know what to expect. I've seen many cases though with these sort of T/Td spreads near the coast of 40/30 or so where its been snowing 12 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 In the winter these events often are underforecast, at least near the coast because the dynamic cooling and crashing mid-level temps behind the system are usually not predicted well. At this time of the year we just don't know what to expect. I've seen many cases though with these sort of T/Td spreads near the coast of 40/30 or so where its been snowing 12 hours later. that's what makes this event so much fun to watch.. pretty much everything that may happen today save a total bust is totally unprecedented.. thus, if these models are right- we're in for one historic amazing afternoon/evening... no doubt- there is definitely high bust potential here for a number of reasons, but mostly b/c of climo, in my opinion - especially for the nyc area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 My temp I's at 43 was 44, its a start lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The NAM has snow at white plains at 18z, pretty much same as 00z run, but appears to be a little sooner in NYC ,maybe 15z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The NAM has snow at white plains at 18z, pretty much same as 00z run, but appears to be a little sooner in NYC ,maybe 15z? You are back! Good morning sir yeah it started off scary though the nam recoverd good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 sweet mary and joseph, lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 big difference with the 6z gfs bridgeport, basically only .5 frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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