NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Electric bath incoming it looks like on this run. Everything is northwest by at least 50 miles. Wait, how are you getting the NAM this early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 You are as die hard as they come my friend. I would never stay up 30 hours for weather model runs...it's a combination of some weather and school and work that has kept me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Electric bath incoming it looks like on this run. Everything is northwest by at least 50 miles. disagree, position at hr 9 vs 15 of the low is identical very slightly warmer because slower and precip shield closer in to the low we should wait till it's finished before bathing with a toaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 disagree, position at hr 9 vs 15 of the low is identical very slightly warmer because slower and precip shield closer in to the low we should wait till it's finished before bathing with a toaster Well I mean for people on the coast who were hoping for the NAM to verify. It's bumped northwest a good bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well I mean for people on the coast who were hoping for the NAM to verify. It's bumped northwest a good bit here. nope hr 12 vs 18 is actually better on the 6z, as the deform is just arriving, things are looking fantastic this run, 850s in exact same spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's northwest of 00z for sure. But it's stronger and more organized. The 925mb warm layer is gone. The dynamics are insane once again...the snow maps are lighting up like a christmas tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 hr 15 vs 21 is actually colder at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well I mean for people on the coast who were hoping for the NAM to verify. It's bumped northwest a good bit here. At TTN at 18Z, its a smidge warmer around 700, but not critically warmer... but at the surface its a bit more than 1 degree F colder (32.5F), which means its already all snow at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 nope hr 12 vs 18 is actually better on the 6z I wouldn't say it's better. The dynamics save it here. But we are playing with fire this run. The NAM literally taunted the entire forum just now and said "You wanna see how close I can get?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's northwest of 00z for sure. But it's stronger and more organized. The 925mb warm layer is gone. The dynamics are insane once again...the snow maps are lighting up like a christmas tree. this is so freaking awesome i can't even omg who would've ever thought we would be talking measurable (and potentially 4"+) before HALLOWEEN this is more historic than any blizzard of the past few winters, on par with the 2-5/6/2010 event for DC, but for everyone (in terms of historic significance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 At TTN at 18Z, its a smidge warmer around 700, but not critically warmer... but at the surface its a bit more than 1 degree F colder (32.5F), which means its already all snow at 18Z Seeing the 925mb warm layer gone is really exciting. That was bothering me on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What a nice looking run...850's do look a tad colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Lol, 18 hours is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 John, on the itouch how's nw Suffolk look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 DULLES REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 4AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 At 0Z its slightly colder at the surface and about the same above that, but more importantly, the saturated layer extends almost 100 mb higher on the new run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 DULLES REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 4AM What's there temp?this 44 is eating at me for some reason been there for 6hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 DULLES REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 4AM That seems weird since they are also reporting 38/36... but then again its snowing off to their west less than 1,000 feet higher in Shenandoah Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That seems weird since they are also reporting 38/36... but then again its snowing off to their west less than 1,000 feet higher in Shenandoah Valley... psuhoffman reporting snow in manchester, md as well looking at radar I would say it is believable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow.. Alot wetter for NW areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 06z eta is gorgeous (not worth much) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAEAST_6z/f18.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 DULLES REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 4AM it says -RA though on their latest metar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 it says -RA though on their latest metar... Changed back very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 it says -RA though on their latest metar... KIAD 290752Z 02010KT 5SM -SN BR FEW008 BKN012 OVC036 03/02 A3009 RMK AO2 RAE33SNB42 SLP189 P0003 T00330022= KIAD 290759Z 02010KT 6SM -RA BR BKN008 BKN012 OVC036 03/02 A3008 RMK AO2 RAB54SNE54 P0001= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 it says -RA though on their latest metar... well the obs on the NOAA page show snow for 4AM... looking at latest radar out of DC, a huge band is forming from SW to NE just to the NW of DC proper... blossoming right over IAD. I would bet people with elevation are now beginning to transition over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Hard to tell without the updated snowfall graphic, but it looks like Mt. Holly has now matched my 2-4" forecast for TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 KIAD 290752Z 02010KT 5SM -SN BR FEW008 BKN012 OVC036 03/02 A3009 RMK AO2 RAE33SNB42 SLP189 P0003 T00330022= KIAD 290759Z 02010KT 6SM -RA BR BKN008 BKN012 OVC036 03/02 A3008 RMK AO2 RAB54SNE54 P0001= ahh, okay i see now... anyway, Upton halved amounts for C and E LI but looks to have upped totals west of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Thundersnow anyone??? I think it is likely. The omega is so high and there is elevated CAPE. What a storm to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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