CAT5ANDREW Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The key is who is whoever gets into the heaviest band is going to get the most snow,and that may not be where the models are predicting it.It would not shock me in the least to see Nassau and Suffolk Counties and Coastal Monmouth and Ocean counties get 6+ inches while NWNJ gets little to nothing April 9-10 1996 type of deal.I am not saying in any way that this is going to happen,but would not shock me if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That was essentially what happened in 1972 at TTN. Second least snowy winter, anyway. we had 1.5" here (e. brunswick) october 28, 2008. i also remember the october 11, 1979 snowfall, which produced about an inch here in CNJ, but a lot in interior NNJ. i remember the leaves were still mostly green, and snow was on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The key is who is whoever gets into the heaviest band is going to get the most snow,and that may not be where the models are predicting it.It would not shock me in the least to see Nassau and Suffolk Counties and Coastal Monmouth and Ocean counties get 6+ inches while NWNJ gets little to nothing April 9-10 1996 type of deal.I am not saying in any way that this is going to happen,but would not shock me if it did. NW NJ is going to get big time snows, no two ways about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 ray made a good decision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Even though it is October a inch or more snow hasn't ever happen before it is hard to believe what the all models are saying. There is part of me thinking that little to no accumulation could happen. On the other hand, there is chance the models could correct and they are in the agreement most of the area will see accumulating snow. The weather could very strange and strange things do happen. Right I stick by my 1-3" with local spots especially in the Bronx and northern Manhattan could get as much as 4". There is part of thinking and call me crazy that something that I don't think even happen in November that 6" or more could happen in 90% of the area and possibly even be the first October blizzard that has ever happen before. This makes think back on 12/5/2003 event where rain or mixed precip going to snow with just few inches were forecasted and turned out the area went under a Blizzard Warnings and the event turned out to be mostly to all snow event with a foot or more has fallen in most of the area. Even though it is not very likely and despite the warm ground and water temps near 60 F anything at this point could happen . This rare as a tornado striking Manhattan. This would be something that would remember for the rest of human civilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The key is who is whoever gets into the heaviest band is going to get the most snow,and that may not be where the models are predicting it.It would not shock me in the least to see Nassau and Suffolk Counties and Coastal Monmouth and Ocean counties get 6+ inches while NWNJ gets little to nothing April 9-10 1996 type of deal.I am not saying in any way that this is going to happen,but would not shock me if it did. I hope your joking with this comment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I hope your joking with this comment.. You clearly aren't getting any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I hope your joking with this comment.. You clearly aren't getting any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I hope your joking with this comment.. He has the correct idea, I may not have used NW NJ as my example, but certainly this is a scenario where Islip could see 6 inches and NYC and TEB could get nothing because Islip gets caught under a band and the city itself does not. 4/1/97 heavy snow fell in PHL but not NYC or most of Westchester. 12/25/02 heavy snow fell in Nassau County but in northern Monmouth county on Raritan Bay maybe 30 miles in a straight line from JFK absolutely nothing fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 John (earth) and I were just speaking over the phone and I posed my concern for dew points. Upstream, anyone with a dew over 32 is raining. It would be a bummer if we get a 33/33 rain for a while, wasting the good frontogenesis band. Question is, can we dynamically cool down and bring the Tds below freezing. Going to be very close. The MOS is at or just above 32 for the Tds, and the raw data is close to that, too. Watch the dew points. Of course, by later in the day, the colder temps sweep in and most areas go to snow. It's just how much gets wasted before then due to a marginal temp/dewpoint spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I hope your joking with this comment.. It seemed to me that the 0Z models did trend a bit south and east. I don't think they pull an April 9, 1996 though. Again, I still favor Feb 5, 2001 as a good analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 He has the correct idea, I may not have used NW NJ as my example, but certainly this is a scenario where Islip could see 6 inches and NYC and TEB could get nothing because Islip gets caught under a band and the city itself does not. 4/1/97 heavy snow fell in PHL but not NYC or most of Westchester. 12/25/02 heavy snow fell in Nassau County but in northern Monmouth county on Raritan Bay maybe 30 miles in a straight line from JFK absolutely nothing fell. please don't get my hopes up... temps have been holding steady here at 43/29... i hope we do cool down to the 30s tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 He has the correct idea, I may not have used NW NJ as my example, but certainly this is a scenario where Islip could see 6 inches and NYC and TEB could get nothing because Islip gets caught under a band and the city itself does not. 4/1/97 heavy snow fell in PHL but not NYC or most of Westchester. 12/25/02 heavy snow fell in Nassau County but in northern Monmouth county on Raritan Bay maybe 30 miles in a straight line from JFK absolutely nothing fell. Actually 3-6" fell in Monmouth on 12/25/02... http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Actually 3-6" fell in Monmouth on 12/25/02... http://www.njfreeway.../25-Dec-02.html Oops, haha...I should have said west of EWR. I knew the cutoff dropped off fast as you moved into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Park down to 44/31... the building next to the CNN temp sign on Columbus Circle had 39 degrees at 2AM, and that typically is a good guide for snow at the surface when it's 32 or lower as the sensor is only a few hundred feet in the air (usually... it does have a slight cold bias) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Oops, haha...I should have said west of EWR. I knew the cutoff dropped off fast as you moved into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 36.1/30 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 John (earth) and I were just speaking over the phone and I posed my concern for dew points. Upstream, anyone with a dew over 32 is raining. It would be a bummer if we get a 33/33 rain for a while, wasting the good frontogenesis band. Question is, can we dynamically cool down and bring the Tds below freezing. Going to be very close. The MOS is at or just above 32 for the Tds, and the raw data is close to that, too. Watch the dew points. Of course, by later in the day, the colder temps sweep in and most areas go to snow. It's just how much gets wasted before then due to a marginal temp/dewpoint spread. The DPs will drop once a N or NNW flow commences....that may not be til 23-00Z though for the coast. As discussed, there may be only a 3 hour window for the coast to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The DPs will drop once a N or NNW flow commences....that may not be til 23-00Z though for the coast. As discussed, there may be only a 3 hour window for the coast to see snow. Yea, but the best frontogenesis starts over the area by 15z thru the evening. That was my point. For the coast, they may waste a lot of that until the change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 staying up for the srefs and nam. will be a bummer if they stink. haven't slept in 30 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 03z srefs are still pretty warm but they definitely ticked away from the northwest solutions. 2m temps are a tick cooler as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Here's 18 hr mslp http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/sref/20111029/03/sref_namer_018_mslp.gif 2mtp http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/sref/20111029/03/sref_namer_018_2m_temp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 00Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This forum is going to be a moderator's nightmare in about 4-5 hours. I like to think people won't jump off cliffs for an October event thats slow to develop or in a worst case busts but I know they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 This forum is going to be a moderator's nightmare in about 4-5 hours. I like to think people won't jump off cliffs for an October event thats slow to develop or in a worst case busts but I know they well. Without a doubt. I wish people would be more sane. These transition events are absolute disasters....there will be people calling bust by 10am because of upstream temp OBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Some pretty significant height field changes on the NAM for a 12 hour forecast on the East Coast. Looks more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 6z NAM appears slower interesting at hr 6 vs hr 12 of 00z, the 50/50 is slightly deeper... models under-estimating its strength could be reason the system is slightly slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 6z NAM appears slower It's also slightly warmer and recognizably farther northwest at 6 hours compared to it's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Electric bath incoming it looks like on this run. Everything is northwest by at least 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 staying up for the srefs and nam. will be a bummer if they stink. haven't slept in 30 hrs. You are as die hard as they come my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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