eduggs Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 not just coastal plain, i think even linland areas below 700 ft will have temp issues If the warmest model guidance is right, that will be the case. But I don't think it will be. I think the temp problems will primarily be confined to areas below 400ft or so, especially after the heavier stuff moves in. I'm not saying it will be aob freezing everywhere above there, but I can see places at - say 100ft - having trouble getting below 36F, while it's 33.5 at 500ft. That makes a huge difference when snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 ARW and NMM are cooler than the previous runs. Looks like rain to heavy snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 ARW and NMM are cooler than the previous runs. Looks like rain to heavy snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 RGEM apparently didn't run tonight...can't find it anywhere. 00Z RGEM is coming in as I speak, er type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Man it got quiet in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Man it got quiet in here I could never go to sleep now after seeing some of the latest model runs. FWIW... HRRR. Keep in mind that this is an incomplete snowfall total, since it hasn't gotten through the entire storm, and most importantly, the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Compared to it's 12z run, the RGEM has moved the surface low well to the east. Seems cooler as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I could never go to sleep now after seeing some of the latest model runs. FWIW... I missed gfs how was it for metro area HRRR. Keep in mind that this is an incomplete snowfall total, since it hasn't gotten through the entire storm, and most importantly, the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 00Z RGEM pretty much a carbon copy from 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 RGEM more similar to the NAM http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/512_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Compared to it's 12z run, the RGEM has moved the surface low well to the east. Seems cooler as well. So overall we have good trends tonight right Seems everything I read is a bit east and a bit Cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 00Z RGEM pretty much a carbon copy from 12Z. Don't agree. 12z 36 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_036.png 00z 24 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_024.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Don't agree. 12z 36 http://www.weatherof...YPES_t6_036.png 00z 24 http://www.weatherof...YPES_t6_024.png The effects from NYC east are pretty much the same. Snow-wise, the overwhelming consensus seems to be that whatever falls before 0z is lost to rain, then anything after gets fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Euro is exactly the same. A very small tick cooler and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Don't agree. 12z 36 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_036.png 00z 24 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_024.png Def different 12z in that frame had us in rain and rain snow line in nj 00z 5boros look like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I would say minor adjustment eastward on the RGEM. Those images just posted are a little deceptive because the surface pressure is listed on one with an X on the far west side of the central contour, but not the other. But the overall structure shifted east only slightly IMO. And changes to the thermal profiles or R/S lines look relatively minor as well - albeit changes in a positive direction. Good run from the RGEM. Slightly weaker at surface and aloft. Slightly later developing with a bit less QPF in far N and W. Probably slightly colder near the dividing line based on 850mb low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I would say minor adjustment eastward on the RGEM. Those images just posted are a little deceptive because the surface pressure is listed on one with an X on the far west side of the central contour, but not the other. But the overall structure shifted east only slightly IMO. And changes to the thermal profiles or R/S lines look relatively minor as well - albeit changes in a positive direction. Good run from the RGEM. Slightly weaker at surface and aloft. Slightly later developing with a bit less QPF in far N and W. Probably slightly colder near the dividing line based on 850mb low track. Well if you look at the thinner pressure contours it's definitely east--and also weaker. Fits the trend of the higher resolution models tonight. The Euro just came in essentially looking like it's 12z run...which is not too dissimilar to the latest runs of the NAM. Pretty exciting stuff. We're in for a fun 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Excluding those in LI and the immediate shorelines, it looks like we made it to nowcasting time without any major modeling crises! Now we cross our fingers and watch the thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Welp here is my forecast accums for our area. I've worked over 15 hrs today on snowfall forecasts all across new england, but i think I got the right general idea for our area..not very confident tho given the time of year. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-newark/a-historic-snowstorm-for-the-northeast-on-saturday-with-high-winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Euro thermal profiles are actually pretty much identical to the 12z run upon further inspection. There are no appreciable movements in either direction. The surface low definitely appears to be at least a tick southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Where is atownwxwatcher with the Nogaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow, I can't believe on I'm a plane heading to JFK to see a historic snowstorm back home... and the models actually seem to have gotten slightly snowier since I left Elko ;thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow, I can't believe on I'm a plane heading to JFK to see a historic snowstorm back home... and the models actually seem to have gotten slightly snowier since I left Elko ;thumbsup: When we say historic I keep thinking tons of snow but then realize .9 is historic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 this is just sick. absolute banding madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 When we say historic I keep thinking tons of snow but then realize .9 is historic lol At TTN 2.6 is historic. But still, that's pretty amazing for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow, I can't believe on I'm a plane heading to JFK to see a historic snowstorm back home... and the models actually seem to have gotten slightly snowier since I left Elko ;thumbsup: Here is a true story: When 'snowmageddon', or whatever it was called hit Washington DC, Dr. Louis Uccellini on the day before it hit flew to NYC and then to India to meet with their respective meteorological agency. On board the flight to NYC a baby started crying. He said to himself, you are not the only one that is upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 At TTN 2.6 is historic. But still, that's pretty amazing for October. Classic nor'easter wind snow rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 this is just sick. absolute banding madness. Wow... not only are these graphics amazing, but it's also in October. My god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Watch NYC record 2.7 inches of snow tomorrow and then a trace for the entire winter and finish with the least snowiest winter on record. That was essentially what happened in 1972 at TTN. Second least snowy winter, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Here is a true story: When 'snowmageddon', or whatever it was called hit Washington DC, Dr. Louis Uccellini on the day before it hit flew to NYC and then to India to meet with their respective meteorological agency. On board the flight to NYC a baby started crying. He said to himself, you are not the only one that is upset. Sounds like how I felt on February 8, 2010, when I flew back to Elko a day before the 5th biggest snowstorm on record at TTN (17.6" on Feb 9-10, biggest storm since 1996). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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