famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 using thicknesses to forecast precip type is an outdated method... not when we have model skew-t's and graphics for every level of the atmosphere Perhaps for most, but since EC data availability is a little lower res, its still somewhat useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 using thicknesses to forecast precip type is an outdated method... not when we have model skew-t's and graphics for every level of the atmosphere except most can't see those on the euro till later so its the best you can do, especially in marginal situations like this. 850 line being south doesn't mean what it means in December and January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I go with 1-3" right now with some isolated locally amounts up to 4" I lean more towards the compromise of the NAM and GFS with slightly warmer solution than the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would say 1-3 in the city while just N and W 3-6. The areas with the elevation to the N and W (especially n/w 287) stand the best chance at 6-12 inches of plaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 the only reason the euro is a degree warmer is because the surface low is a hair weaker. the surface low tracks southeast of the benchmark. it's not close to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the only reason the euro is a degree warmer is because the surface low is a hair weaker. the surface low tracks southeast of the benchmark. it's not close to the gfs. Do you think there's merit to the Euro's depiction of slightly weaker low? I mean it really is within the margin of run to run variation right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Perhaps for most, but since EC data availability is a little lower res, its still somewhat useful. Well there are no warm layers above 900mb right? So why use 1000-500mb thickness values? I'm more interested in lower level thicknesses and 925mb temps. Anything zubzero at that height should support at least snowflakes reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPC probability of eighteen inches of snow on day one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The wundergound snow maps actually show the most snow they ever had from the euro for the city and western LI. Well over 6" for NYC and Western LI. And thats conservative. What do the SV maps show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPC probability of eighteen inches of snow on day one. Unreal. Places along I-81 down towards Harrisburg and even York down I-83 look to be steamrolled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The wundergound snow maps actually show the most snow they ever had from the euro for the city and western LI. Well over 6" for NYC and Western LI. And thats conservative. What do the SV maps show? mind posting them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Do you think there's merit to the Euro's depiction of slightly weaker low? I mean it really is within the margin of run to run variation right? I think if anything it should bomb faster because of the warm water temps and crazy temp gradient it has to work with, awesome upper air support and help from the Gulf, if not pieces from the remnants of Rina. It's another reason why I'm not buying the GFS's warm temp profiles. The cold air should wrap into the storm very efficiently as it tightens up at our latitude. I think a lot of people are in for a massive shock tomorrow night, whether from crushing snow, high winds, flooding, you name it. This will be a storm talked about here for many years if not decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Safe to say that moderate to heavy snow is a guarantee for the Penn State game tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well there are no warm layers above 900mb right? So why use 1000-500mb thickness values? I'm more interested in lower level thicknesses and 925mb temps. Anything zubzero at that height should support at least snowflakes reaching the ground. Forky was decrying the use of any and all thickness methods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Safe to say that moderate to heavy snow is a guarantee for the Penn State game tomorrow. 6-8" or so is a safe bet ATTM for State College. Could be a lot of tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Snow Thats the best the rgem has looked...roughly 0.6-0.8 frozen in Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here's the Euro snow chart off wunderground at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Forky was decrying the use of any and all thickness methods. i was mainly talking about 1000-500mb thicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i was mainly talking about 1000-500mb thicknesses That's not what you said, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That is sick... I'd have a hard time believing it wouldn't accumulate rapidly (at least on grassy surfaces) with that rate... Here's the Euro snow chart off wunderground at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here's the Euro snow chart off wunderground at 21z. Thats only a 3 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Forky was decrying the use of any and all thickness methods. Well I'm lost if I try to use them in a springlike rain/snow situation. But for marginal mixed precip events where it feels like there's a lot of guessing going on regarding how long a crystal can survive, the various thickness values seem to be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thats the best the rgem has looked...roughly 0.6-0.8 frozen in Manhattan Because it goes nuts from 36-42. RGEM is on ewall now. Its plenty cold between these hours to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's not what you said, however. with all the discussion centered around that thickness level, i thought it would be intuitive that i was referring to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Because it goes nuts from 36-42. RGEM is on ewall now. Ya thats pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good luck down there guys. This honestly could be a once in a lifetime event with even 2 to 4 inches. It's October and we're talking about snow, goodness gracious, incredible nonetheless. It seems pretty plausible looking at most models, that this will be a rain to snow event as the CCB cranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thats only a 3 hour period. Right, there are still accumulations happening between 3-6 z that I can see. Do you have access to the storm totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here are hours 30-42 snow maps off wunderground. We dont know the accuracy of these. WillORH says they look overdone. If he's here, please post the WSI maps so we can compare: hours: 30-33 33-36 36-39 39-42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here are hours 30-42 snow maps off wunderground. We dont know the accuracy of these. WillORH says they look overdone. If he's here, please post the WSI maps so we can compare: hours: 30-33 33-36 36-39 39-42 Is there a way to show a total? i am on the site now and i only see ways to shows every 3 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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