ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Still snowing at a decent clip at hour 28 and surface is close to freezing at LGA. Close to .50" frozen has fallen from hours 24-28. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2011102900/images_d2/lga.28.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 SPC WRF is gorgeous. 18 hr we are under the first frontogen band. Temps are already cold. Sim rad : http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/refd_1000m_f18.gif Temps: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/t2ms_f18.gif The temps stay steady and then get colder as the storm goes on. We get killed at hr 25. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/refd_1000m_f25.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319862544[/url]' post='1075046']SPC WRF is gorgeous. 18 hr we are under the first frontogen band. Temps are already cold. Sim rad : http://www.emc.ncep....d_1000m_f18.gif Temps: http://www.emc.ncep....00/t2ms_f18.gif The temps stay steady and then get colder as the storm goes on. We get killed at hr 25. http://www.emc.ncep....d_1000m_f25.gif Does that band move east? Post hours 26 and 27 sim link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 0z Nam text soundings show over 12 inches for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Here's the simrad loop http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/nmmwrf.refd1000_animate_1h.html#picture Temp loop http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/nmmwrf.t2m_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 0z Nam text soundings show over 12 inches for NYC. The NAM is dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 The NAM is dreaming. Those text soundings are possibly the worst thing you can look at, period, but especially in this situation. The algorithm used to determine the snow is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Those text soundings are possibly the worst thing you can look at, period, but especially in this situation. The algorithm used to determine the snow is a joke. But they are nice to look at!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You have to look at temperature soundings of all layers, not clown maps or any other text soundings, etc that might work in January. I think if it's freezing or below at 950mb, it should be snow at the ground for the storm. Should... How long does snow have to last in above freezing temps before it melts completely? 1500 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Overall the MM5 ends with .50"-.60" precip with surface temps of 33-34 for LGA and all other levels well below freezing. Before that there is about 1" of rain/slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Those text soundings are possibly the worst thing you can look at, period, but especially in this situation. The algorithm used to determine the snow is a joke. I dont think they are soundings either. Its raw model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You have to look at temperature soundings of all layers, not clown maps or any other text soundings, etc that might work in January. I think if it's freezing or below at 950mb, it should be snow at the ground for the storm. Should... How long does snow have to last in above freezing temps before it melts completely? 1500 feet? I think it would depend on a couple factors such as flake size and actual temps in that above freezing layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Overall the MM5 ends with .50"-.60" precip with surface temps of 33-34 for LGA and all other levels well below freezing. Before that there is about 1" of rain./slop. That right there alone is an almost unheard of scenario for the region. Remember, there has only been one storm in history where NYC has recorded 1 inch of rain and then 6 inches of snow and that was the 12/25/02 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That right there alone is an almost unheard of scenario for the region. Remember, there has only been one storm in history where NYC has recorded 1 inch of rain and then 6 inches of snow and that was the 12/25/02 storm. February 25-26 2010 was basically that for areas just east of Manhattan. I saw a crapload of rain even though I changed over relatively quickly. Places in Connecticut and the island saw even more rain before recording very decent snowfall totals. Clearly we are on some kind of extreme streak lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319863177[/url]' post='1075081']That right there alone is an almost unheard of scenario for the region. Remember, there has only been one storm in history where NYC has recorded 1 inch of rain and then 6 inches of snow and that was the 12/25/02 storm. By the time it sticks, that .50"-.60" is probably 1"-2" of slush though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Here's the simrad loop http://www.emc.ncep....1h.html#picture Hmm wonder whats causing that large ref hole around 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 By the time it sticks, that .50"-.60" is probably 1"-2" of slush though. I could see 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 By the time it sticks, that .50"-.60" is probably 1"-2" of slush though.12/25/02 storm had one of the most historical arguments between 2 mets on the wright weather board man time flies see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Everyone went sleepy time? Come on people it's Saturday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 RGEM apparently didn't run tonight...can't find it anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Everyone went sleepy time? Come on people it's Saturday night! It's Friday Night...see what happens when you stay up past your usual 10pm bedtime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 RGEM apparently didn't run tonight...can't find it anywhere. The GGEM is also stuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's Friday Night...see what happens when you stay up past your usual 10pm bedtime? Lol I've become disoriented. Can't tell what day of the week it is, what month of the year it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 looks like the coastal front has just set up shop. http://weather.rap.u...e=-1&duration=0 Also, the RGEM should be out in a min on ewall. It always updates just after 1am. finally, http://www.meteo.psu...0z/tmploop.html i dont use the link above but some do. I just use bufkit, but it may help some out that want a quick hit on BL temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Lol I've become disoriented. Can't tell what day of the week it is, what month of the year it is... the thought of rapidly dropping pressures is beginning to go to your head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think I might pull an all nighter. Lol I've become disoriented. Can't tell what day of the week it is, what month of the year it is... Those are signs that you are getting old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Also, the RGEM should be out in a min on ewall. It always updates just after 1am. It's scheduled to run then, but it hasn't updated on the CMC site yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 yea, it hasnt updated on the ewall. Looks like it's fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Surface temps and dews pretty steady. Too bad the cloud deck rolled in during maximum daytime heating. There's going to be a lot of upper 30s tomorrow morning when the precip moves in. I was slightly more optimistic about the airmass this morning with low 20s dps. The heavy precip will drop most everyone into the mid-30s, but I anticipate a lot of frustration with surface temps in the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Surface temps and dews pretty steady. Too bad the cloud deck rolled in during maximum daytime heating. There's going to be a lot of upper 30s tomorrow morning when the precip moves in. I was slightly more optimistic about the airmass this morning with low 20s dps. The heavy precip will drop most everyone into the mid-30s, but I anticipate a lot of frustration with surface temps in the coastal plain. not just coastal plain, i think even linland areas below 700 ft will have temp issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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