SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yep... look at all those blobs of pinks and reds south of the low center... all that convection is preventing the best moisture influx into the area where cyclogenesis is occurring. This is why we see a weaker solution. I dont think a couple mb here and there is much of a difference. If it was truly weaker the ccb would not be as intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 .75" falls from hour 24-30 for city area under the CCB. All levels seem OK from hour 24 on. So a couple inches of slop at least on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I dont think a couple mb here and there is much of a difference. If it was truly weaker the ccb would not be as intense Right off the NJ coast as where I believe the rapid intensification will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What happens from 0z on is what NYC east is interested in (snow wise). Before that, it's rain, likely across the board. If the CCB develops and is able to pivot east, we cash in at least to maybe mid Suffolk. IF the banding falls apart, we get little snow.Even this GFS run has an impressive band move through the area after 0z when heights crash and temps rapidly drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's just enough of a tick south and east to allow for this ccb to be better. Thicknesses are lower and the thermal profiles are better. By a hair. Even thermal profiles being a hair cooler make all the difference. The 850s don't appear to warm above 0 C where I am in C NJ, but the 18z pushed the h850 0 C line all the way into Morris county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Raleigh snow map has more snow on gfs then nam for NYC and LI. NAM was almost nothing for LI and 4"-6" for NYC. GFS has the 4" line to the Suffolk/Nassau border and 5"-7" or so for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 If anyone was thinking winds wouldnt be an issue on LI, check out this sounding at ISP at 06z Sunday. Theres 36 kt winds sustained at the surface on the 00z GFS and winds over 60 just above. Oh and the profile supports snow in the wrap around band. Surface temps are around 3C but its below freezing from 950mb up http://vortex.plymou...el&size=912x650 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Based on the GFS, at the rate it is coming down and winds shifting from NE to N, if its close, I'd suspect a change to snow not too long after 8 pm tomorrow in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Raleigh snow map has more snow on gfs then nam for NYC and LI. NAM was almost nothing for LI and 4"-6" for NYC. GFS has the 4" line to the Suffolk/Nassau border and 5"-7" or so for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 MM5 very impressive through 18 hours. Looks like the flip to snow is about to occur on I-95 here. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2011102900/images_d2/slp.18.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319860842[/url]' post='1074903'] It's interesting that it's snowier then nam though now due to nam having that dry slot.This shows that gfs moved east and got colder. Good trends. 18z gfs had 850 line into western Jersey. This new run, never gets into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I still do not buy this will happen for the coast as much as so many models want to show it happening and I'm actually forecasting it to happen, it just seems too ridiculous that even 3 or 4 inches of snow could fall on October 30th on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319860993[/url]' post='1074922']MM5 very impressive through 18 hours. Looks like the flip to snow is about to occur on I-95 here. http://cheget.msrc.s...slp.18.0000.gif It's warm below the 900mb at hour 20 for LGA. Surface in the 40's http://cheget.msrc.s...lga.20.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's warm below the 900mb at hour 20 for LGA. Surface in the 40's http://cheget.msrc.s...lga.20.0000.gif NAM was too dude, you have a warm sound to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Surface cooling as precip intensifies at hour 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I still do not buy this will happen for the coast as much as so many models want to show it happening and I'm actually forecasting it to happen, it just seems too ridiculous that even 3 or 4 inches of snow could fall on October 30th on Long Island. We had the snowiest January on record this year. Then, we had the hottest day ever recorded. Then, we had an earthquake, AND a landfalling hurricane in New Jersey, in the same week, which culminated with the wettest August in history! So, an October snowstorm makes sense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah it's got a nasty surface warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We had the snowiest January on record this year. Then, we had the hottest day ever recorded. Then, we had an earthquake, AND a landfalling hurricane in New Jersey, in the same week, which culminated with the wettest August in history! So, an October snowstorm makes sense! Watch NYC record 2.7 inches of snow tomorrow and then a trace for the entire winter and finish with the least snowiest winter on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceMan5043 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Exactly! Don't ignore the trend of insanity! I'm expecting no less than 3 inches in cedar grove, new jersey only 15 miles west of new york city! Unprecedented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Do you think differences in model resolution causes these sort of differences between the GFS and NAM? Well they both shows the very strong convective signature in Florida moving offshore and remaining robust. Thats what we need to be on the lookout for over the next 12 hours to see if that solution verifies. I dont think a couple mb here and there is much of a difference. If it was truly weaker the ccb would not be as intense If you compare the 500mb features between 12z, 18z, and 00z... you will notice a subtle but significant de-amplification of the trough... not quite as negatively tilted as before. This will have more implications on the position of features... with the CCB probably not making it as far west in the earlier time frames. The general trend is the slow the system down as it bombs out at a later interval, meaning folks in MA and CT are looking pretty good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 ukie 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319861501[/url]' post='1074972']Yeah it's got a nasty surface warm layer. Hour 23, still 5c at surface at LGA. Freezing level to 950mb or so. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2011102900/images_d2/lga.23.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Hour 23, still 5c at surface at LGA. Freezing level to 950mb or so. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2011102900/images_d2/lga.23.0000.gif It's got some kind of nasty surface warm layer--not sure how accurate that depiction may be. Warmer than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Mm5 is fine after 24, for LGA.Looks like decent precip left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Shaving a degree or two off because it appears the UKIE is too warm at the surface on the soundings in general, it has about the same snow/rain switch times as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Mm5 is fine after 24, for LGA.Looks like decent precipip left. 6 hours later than the NAM. Frozen precipitation probabilities are still very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319861815[/url]' post='1075006']It's got some kind of nasty surface warm layer--not sure how accurate that depiction may be. Warmer than any other model. Mixes it out by hour 25 and snow is falling. So switch time around 8-9pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319862069[/url]' post='1075025']Mixes it out by hour 25 and snow is falling. So switch time around 8-9pm tomorrow. By hour 26, surface is 33-34 and in the last 2 hours close to .30" have fallen. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2011102900/images_d2/lga.26.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Still snowing at a decent clip at hour 28 and surface is close to freezing at LGA. Close to .50" frozen has fallen from hours 24-28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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