Zelocita Weather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Whoever said the 00z NAM is torching for NW NJ obviously didn't bother to look at the map. All of Northern NJ is between 32 and 34 F on the NAM. When looking at the 12km zoom maps on Ewall, you have to look at the thin contours between the 32 F and 40 F line. They are all packed in near the NJ Coast. Nowhere in Northern NJ is at or above 34 F. So verbatim the oz NAM seems to have 8-12" for most of N NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 which is more liable, skew-t's or text soundings?? Shouldnt they play off of each other? I dont look at the raw model output. i look at Skew-ts and you can get a text sounding from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Here's a great 15 panel view of what's transpiring on the NAM. Look at the 850mb wind gradient and the 850-900 winds howling out of the northeast. 10m winds are actually N-NE at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 By the way, did anyone look at hour 84, albeit marginal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 loop I put together for you guys of the thickness lines off the 0z NAM RED: 1000-700mb = 2840m CYAN: 850-700mb = 1540m YELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300m PURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560m GREEN: 850-500mb = 4100m WHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400m BLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 By the way, did anyone look at hour 84, albeit marginal? Yup noticed that too. One October/November Snowstorm at a time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Newark bufkit is 7" on the NAM assuming a 5:1 ratio. The other algorithims are much higher but ridiculous and overdone in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Newark bufkit is 7" on the NAM assuming a 5:1 ratio. The other algorithims are much higher but ridiculous and overdone in all likelihood. and what nice weenie gave that to you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Looks like the winds shift from NE to N between 15 and 21z on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Perhaps... but that latent heat release will take a while to kick in... it would be better if we already had a good moisture flux pre-event. The radar is not looking terribly impressive right now. The center pressure is 2-4mb weaker this run at 21z tomorrow and the 850mb heights are about 30dm higher... the model might make up for loss time beyond that period, but overall its a slightly weaker solution. At 21z tomorrow the 0z has a surface low near 999mb, which is about 2mb weaker than at the same time in the previous run. But by 0z tomorrow, the slp difference is less than 1mb. Further, the rate of deepening is almost identical. And slight weakness in the system this run is well within the ensemble spread and clearly within the margin or error between simulation and reality. Any robbing of the moisture in the tropics I think is overstated. But of course future the last few runs could tell a different story. There are lots of factors influencing the strength and evolution of our would be storm, not just whats going on down near Florida. I think our system has plenty of moisture to work with. I also think the radar looks fine right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 NAM bufkit flips EWR to snow at 17z. Give or take an hour west or east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 some pretty good thundersnow signals showing up in the bufkits, its cool to put in EWR through BDR and see the snow line come east. Also, BDR gets an extended period of snow which helps their totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 In other news we have just crowned the worst ever World Series champion...I guess its fitting the night before an event as rare as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 some pretty good thundersnow signals showing up in the bufkits, its cool to put in EWR through BDR and see the snow line come east. Also, BDR gets an extended period of snow which helps their totals. I said the same thing to John (Earth) 3 hours ago. Check out the omega in the snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 In other news we have just crowned the worst ever World Series champion...I guess its fitting the night before an event as rare as this. nope- the cards of 2006 were much worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 In other news we have just crowned the worst ever World Series champion...I guess its fitting the night before an event as rare as this. probably one of the worst bullpens I've seen on WS champions team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I said the same thing to John (Earth) 3 hours ago. Check out the omega in the snow growth zone. saw it, actually is better north than south, better aligned that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 0z GFS is rolling, for all those who are interested... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Bummer one can't get three hour forecast NAM soundings from NIU, because I don't see an Emagram option at Plymouth State, Anyhow, early morning Sunday NAM. I prefer this to other formats for p-type guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 GFS through 18hr took a jog east of 18z and is a bit cooler. But it's still a disaster. Torching at 18 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 GFS is more of the same, high thickness..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 CCB to save the day at 27 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yep... look at all those blobs of pinks and reds south of the low center... all that convection is preventing the best moisture influx into the area where cyclogenesis is occurring. This is why we see a weaker solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Accumulated liquid equivalent frozen precipitation is over 1.00" from NYC West. 1.20+ for parts of Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yep... look at all those blobs of pinks and reds south of the low center... all that convection is preventing the best moisture influx into the area where cyclogenesis is occurring. This is why we see a weaker solution. Do you think differences in model resolution causes these sort of differences between the GFS and NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Nice CCB hours 24-30. Cold enough too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 CCB to save the day at 27 hrs Yeah looks by hr 24 the suburbs have change over.....27-30 the ccb really cranks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 GFS is a bit cooler and a tad east, not a bad thing coming from one of the warmer solutions. Big hit for interior NNJ and SNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's just enough of a tick south and east to allow for this ccb to be better. Thicknesses are lower and the thermal profiles are better. By a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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